The latest Quinnipiac poll puts Pataki 12 points behind Spitzer and 22 points behind Hillary...those are pretty bad numbers for a well-known incumbent.
Pataki's popularity took a nose dive after his last re-election. All during his campaign he cited New York as being in gine financial shape than just after his re-election he cited many financial problems the state faces & made various cuts to school funding including funding for the States Public Universities, & cuts in aid to many of the poorer new York districts. If Pataki decides to run again for govenor in 06 he will get crused by Spitzer, he will be crushed by Clinton if he decides to go after the Senate seat in 06. And similar to Guliani & Arnold he would never win in the GOP primary because like those two Pataki is fairly socially liberal Pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control)
