Texas the next Colorado?

[DS0816]

It all starts with winning Fort Bend county.

With Richmond its county seat, Fort Bend last voted Democratic when Lyndon Johnson carried it and his home state of Texas in Election 1964.

With unseated George Bush, in 1992, and losing Republican challenger Bob Dole, in 1996, winning Fort Bend by more than 10%, it was strongly (more than 15%) in George W. Bush's column, in 2000 and 2004. So, the shift was remarkable in 2008: John McCain held it in the Republican column by just 2.39%.

One neighbor southwest of Harris County (Houston), which gave Barack Obama's Democratic Party its first victory since 1964 LBJ, Fort Bend County could bode well for the 44th president if he wins re-election in 2012 and shifts the State of Texas in his direction (both of which I believe will happen).

[DS0816]

This could be what 2032 looks like-

The sun belt and the west becoming more moderate/liberal and the rust belt becoming realigning with the rural south to become the next GOP coalition.

A quick comment on just two states (in your map) Since the Republicans first competed in 1856, Pennyslvania and Michigan have only disagreed in four elections, two of which had both states with a nominee (and the other state not giving that candidate the vote). They both carried for all winning Republicans from Abraham Lincoln's first election, in 1860, to Dwight Eisenhower in 1956. Richard Nixon, in 1968, was the first winning GOP not to carry them. They're both a PVI for the Democrats that, in your silly scenario, is only possible with realignment of both political parties -- and when you look at today's GOP, I wouldn't be surprised if both Mich. and Pa. remain Democratic for the majority of this century (just as they were reliably Republican from 1860 to 1956).