Texas the next Colorado?

[5280]

During 2008 election, Obama won just about every big city, Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, etc.  With demographics changing, it's possible all the big cities in Texas could vote Dem.  I say this because in 1984, Denver county voted for Dukakis instead of Reagan and from there on stayed blue.

Other than that, the state is probably moderating towards the center, big cities voting Dem, suburbs voting reliably Rep and less cowboy culture.  I see 2012 and the future the turning point how Colorado in 1984 started to become more of a swing state.

Thoughts and opinions?

[freepcrusher]

It all starts with winning Fort Bend county.

[DS0816]

It all starts with winning Fort Bend county.

With Richmond its county seat, Fort Bend last voted Democratic when Lyndon Johnson carried it and his home state of Texas in Election 1964.

With unseated George Bush, in 1992, and losing Republican challenger Bob Dole, in 1996, winning Fort Bend by more than 10%, it was strongly (more than 15%) in George W. Bush's column, in 2000 and 2004. So, the shift was remarkable in 2008: John McCain held it in the Republican column by just 2.39%.

One neighbor southwest of Harris County (Houston), which gave Barack Obama's Democratic Party its first victory since 1964 LBJ, Fort Bend County could bode well for the 44th president if he wins re-election in 2012 and shifts the State of Texas in his direction (both of which I believe will happen).

[Person Man]

This could be what 2032 looks like-

The sun belt and the west becoming more moderate/liberal and the rust belt becoming realigning with the rural south to become the next GOP coalition.

[freepcrusher]

the map is accurate in some ways, but Utah? WTF? What's up with Minnesota voting republican? Don't they have the longest streak of democratic presidential wins?

[Mechaman]

the map is accurate in some ways, but Utah? WTF? What's up with Minnesota voting republican? Don't they have the longest streak of democratic presidential wins?

The map in 2032........not 2012.

[Mechaman]

This could be what 2032 looks like-

The sun belt and the west becoming more moderate/liberal and the rust belt becoming realigning with the rural south to become the next GOP coalition.

Not sure about Utah, but other than that I could see this happening.

As for Texas being a swing state in 2012, LOL.

[DS0816]

This could be what 2032 looks like-

The sun belt and the west becoming more moderate/liberal and the rust belt becoming realigning with the rural south to become the next GOP coalition.

A quick comment on just two states (in your map) Since the Republicans first competed in 1856, Pennyslvania and Michigan have only disagreed in four elections, two of which had both states with a nominee (and the other state not giving that candidate the vote). They both carried for all winning Republicans from Abraham Lincoln's first election, in 1860, to Dwight Eisenhower in 1956. Richard Nixon, in 1968, was the first winning GOP not to carry them. They're both a PVI for the Democrats that, in your silly scenario, is only possible with realignment of both political parties -- and when you look at today's GOP, I wouldn't be surprised if both Mich. and Pa. remain Democratic for the majority of this century (just as they were reliably Republican from 1860 to 1956).

[Person Man]

This could be what 2032 looks like-

The sun belt and the west becoming more moderate/liberal and the rust belt becoming realigning with the rural south to become the next GOP coalition.

Not sure about Utah, but other than that I could see this happening.

As for Texas being a swing state in 2012, LOL.

Don't poo poo Utah swingin'...its swinging pretty fast in Salt Lake and more and more people are movin' in. What happened elsewhere in the states around Utah is happening in Utah.

[Mechaman]

This could be what 2032 looks like-

The sun belt and the west becoming more moderate/liberal and the rust belt becoming realigning with the rural south to become the next GOP coalition.

Not sure about Utah, but other than that I could see this happening.

As for Texas being a swing state in 2012, LOL.

Don't poo poo Utah swingin'...its swinging pretty fast in Salt Lake and more and more people are movin' in. What happened elsewhere in the states around Utah is happening in Utah.

I guess twenty years is a long time, a long of things could happen.
I don't think many people in 1908 would think that in 1928 the Democratic candidate would win Micksajewstits so yeah I'll entertain that idea.

[Person Man]

Exactly. Vermont. New Hampshire. California. Need I go on?...and who knew that Alabama would be Republican?

I would think this would be a 53% vote-

[5280]

[Antonio the Sixth]

This could be what 2032 looks like-

The sun belt and the west becoming more moderate/liberal and the rust belt becoming realigning with the rural south to become the next GOP coalition.

Flip TX, UT, AK and GA to NJ, VA, IL and MI and this could be somewhat correct.

[Mjh]

Probably not, but who knows?

Texas might be a Democratic state in 2032, just as New York might be solid R in 2036.

But at this point the Democrats look pretty dead in the Lone Star State.

[5280]

Probably not, but who knows?

Texas might be a Democratic state in 2032, just as New York might be solid R in 2036.

But at this point the Democrats look pretty dead in the Lone Star State.

Democrat and Republican party would have to take a full 360 for that to happen on their platform issues.

[5280]

This could be what 2032 looks like-

The sun belt and the west becoming more moderate/liberal and the rust belt becoming realigning with the rural south to become the next GOP coalition.

Flip TX, UT, AK and GA to NJ, VA, IL and MI and this could be somewhat correct.

UT can still vote DEM if there's enough white liberals in Salt Lake City.

[Person Man]

Probably not, but who knows?

Texas might be a Democratic state in 2032, just as New York might be solid R in 2036.

But at this point the Democrats look pretty dead in the Lone Star State.

Democrat and Republican party would have to take a full 360 for that to happen on their platform issues.

I'm not relying on that at all.

I am thinking that the GOP in the next 25 years will-

Economics- Stay pretty much the same, perhaps more extreme. Probably officially call for an end of the NLRA and SSA, among other things or stay the same.

Socially- Probably get the message on gays and misdemeanor drug crimes. Will take abortion out of the religious context and add it with immigration into a "law and order" context.

The Republican Party will be like it is today, just less overtly religious and more overtly crazy.

Democrats-

Economics- Probably will continue to fight for "medicare for all", but will probably get the message on social security.

Socially- Will probably stay more or less the same. Maybe they will start to get the message on guns...

 The real change in America will be that people from all over the country and the world will be seeking a better life in better climes and when they are eventually done being taken advantage of (it takes about 2 generations/40 years on average) they will start to swing places like TX, AZ, UT and FL to Dems. Those people will be gone in the rust belt and the population there will look a lot like it does on the other side of the Ohio River.

[Skill and Chance]

Probably not, but who knows?

Texas might be a Democratic state in 2032, just as New York might be solid R in 2036.

But at this point the Democrats look pretty dead in the Lone Star State.

Democrat and Republican party would have to take a full 360 for that to happen on their platform issues.

I'm not relying on that at all.

I am thinking that the GOP in the next 25 years will-

Economics- Stay pretty much the same, perhaps more extreme. Probably officially call for an end of the NLRA and SSA, among other things or stay the same.

Socially- Probably get the message on gays and misdemeanor drug crimes. Will take abortion out of the religious context and add it with immigration into a "law and order" context.

The Republican Party will be like it is today, just less overtly religious and more overtly crazy.

Democrats-

Economics- Probably will continue to fight for "medicare for all", but will probably get the message on social security.

Socially- Will probably stay more or less the same. Maybe they will start to get the message on guns...

 The real change in America will be that people from all over the country and the world will be seeking a better life in better climes and when they are eventually done being taken advantage of (it takes about 2 generations/40 years on average) they will start to swing places like TX, AZ, UT and FL to Dems. Those people will be gone in the rust belt and the population there will look a lot like it does on the other side of the Ohio River.

How do the Dems make such dramatic gains in the Mountain West and maintain a 40 permanent majority in New England without becoming noticeably more libertarian?  Also, wouldn't VA and maybe MS (changing demographics) be more competitive for them than UT? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How about no?

[nkpatel1279]

I think Arizona is going to be the next Colorado.

[Sam Spade]

During 2008 election, Obama won just about every big city, Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, etc.  With demographics changing, it's possible all the big cities in Texas could vote Dem.  I say this because in 1984, Denver county voted for Dukakis instead of Reagan and from there on stayed blue.

Other than that, the state is probably moderating towards the center, big cities voting Dem, suburbs voting reliably Rep and less cowboy culture.  I see 2012 and the future the turning point how Colorado in 1984 started to become more of a swing state.

Thoughts and opinions?

I'm gonna conclude you don't know what you're talking about and move on, because there's no reason to insult mindlessly.

[freepcrusher]

Texas has a pretty strong democratic heritage. As late as 10 years ago, the state assembly had a democratic majority and 17 of the 30 congressional seats were democratic held. I still believe that a democrat could win a statewide election in Texas but it has to be more of a Lloyd Bentsen type as opposed to a Barbara Boxer type.

[Person Man]

Probably not, but who knows?

Texas might be a Democratic state in 2032, just as New York might be solid R in 2036.

But at this point the Democrats look pretty dead in the Lone Star State.

Democrat and Republican party would have to take a full 360 for that to happen on their platform issues.

I'm not relying on that at all.

I am thinking that the GOP in the next 25 years will-

Economics- Stay pretty much the same, perhaps more extreme. Probably officially call for an end of the NLRA and SSA, among other things or stay the same.

Socially- Probably get the message on gays and misdemeanor drug crimes. Will take abortion out of the religious context and add it with immigration into a "law and order" context.

The Republican Party will be like it is today, just less overtly religious and more overtly crazy.

Democrats-

Economics- Probably will continue to fight for "medicare for all", but will probably get the message on social security.

Socially- Will probably stay more or less the same. Maybe they will start to get the message on guns...

 The real change in America will be that people from all over the country and the world will be seeking a better life in better climes and when they are eventually done being taken advantage of (it takes about 2 generations/40 years on average) they will start to swing places like TX, AZ, UT and FL to Dems. Those people will be gone in the rust belt and the population there will look a lot like it does on the other side of the Ohio River.

How do the Dems make such dramatic gains in the Mountain West and maintain a 40 permanent majority in New England without becoming noticeably more libertarian?  Also, wouldn't VA and maybe MS (changing demographics) be more competitive for them than UT? 

Like I said, give it 25 years.

Let's see about this-

1980-
California- R +7
Colorado- R +17
Mississippi- D +9
Kentucky-  D +8
Montana- R +14
New York- D +7

2008-
California- D +17
Colorado- D +2
Mississippi- R +24
Kentucky- R +25
Montana- R +10
New York- D +13

[Mjh]

Probably not, but who knows?

Texas might be a Democratic state in 2032, just as New York might be solid R in 2036.

But at this point the Democrats look pretty dead in the Lone Star State.

Democrat and Republican party would have to take a full 360 for that to happen on their platform issues.

I'm not relying on that at all.

I am thinking that the GOP in the next 25 years will-

Economics- Stay pretty much the same, perhaps more extreme. Probably officially call for an end of the NLRA and SSA, among other things or stay the same.

Socially- Probably get the message on gays and misdemeanor drug crimes. Will take abortion out of the religious context and add it with immigration into a "law and order" context.

The Republican Party will be like it is today, just less overtly religious and more overtly crazy.

Democrats-

Economics- Probably will continue to fight for "medicare for all", but will probably get the message on social security.

Socially- Will probably stay more or less the same. Maybe they will start to get the message on guns...

 The real change in America will be that people from all over the country and the world will be seeking a better life in better climes and when they are eventually done being taken advantage of (it takes about 2 generations/40 years on average) they will start to swing places like TX, AZ, UT and FL to Dems. Those people will be gone in the rust belt and the population there will look a lot like it does on the other side of the Ohio River.

So basically the entire country will be Democratic?

Don't you think that is somewhat optimistic? 

[Mechaman]

Texas has a pretty strong democratic heritage. As late as 10 years ago, the state assembly had a democratic majority and 17 of the 30 congressional seats were democratic held. I still believe that a democrat could win a statewide election in Texas but it has to be more of a Lloyd Bentsen type as opposed to a Barbara Boxer type.

^^^^
This.
It is important to remember that although Obama overperformed in the cities he still lost the election in Texas by 12 points in a nationwide environment very favorable to Democrats.  Hell Clinton got a lot closer in 1992 and 1996 than Obama did with a third party candidate running.