Can the GOP win Wisconsin?

[California8429]

It would be a great pick-up, I think it's possible, though the odds are against it. Wisconsin republicans did an amazing job in the 2010 elections, and their chairman that lead them to victory is now the RNC Chair.

I think Walker can turn out to be a Christie. Made some unpopular cuts, but in the longterm earned respect and approval from the state.

What do you all think the chances are and which candidates could win it?

[memphis]

Unlikely.

[Napoleon]

WI probably was headed that direction until recent events undone did that and more.

[krazen1211]

Absolutely. The shenanighans of the union whiners won't help them; the independents are no fan of public sector unions.

This is going to be a great example of Nixon's silent majority.

Christie is a great example to follow.

[King]

the independents are no fan of public sector unions.

Yes, as the term implies, "independents" are all uniform thinkers not only nationwide but in individual state cases like in Wisconsin.

They are also all incredibly anti-union.

[pbrower2a]

Governor Scott Walker has become a villain in two months. He is wildly unpopular, and people who have no other means of protest of him or his policies will have one way to show their disdain for the Mussolini of Madison in November 2012 even if he succeeds at what he seeks to do.

He went too far in a State that has never shown itself amenable to the Extreme Right since Senator Joseph McCarthy made a fool of himself.   

[krazen1211]

the independents are no fan of public sector unions.

Yes, as the term implies, "independents" are all uniform thinkers not only nationwide but in individual state cases like in Wisconsin.

They are also all incredibly anti-union.

A poll was done on this recently. You are mostly correct on that last point.

Liberals are desperate; that's why they flee like criminals and call him names.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

I beg to differ. Walker and the GOP are the good guys in this situation. The rogue senators and protestors are in the wrong. Wisconsion is making a right turn.

[exopolitician]

They could, doesn't seem all that likely now.

[RI]

Has anyone actually done any polling on how Wisconsinites feel about Walker's actions?

[izixs]

the independents are no fan of public sector unions.

Yes, as the term implies, "independents" are all uniform thinkers not only nationwide but in individual state cases like in Wisconsin.

They are also all incredibly anti-union.

A poll was done on this recently. You are mostly correct on that last point.

Liberals are desperate; that's why they flee like criminals and call him names.

Sarcasm is difficult to detect on the internet isn't it?

As for your last bit there, where you call names and hide behind the anonymity of the internet (like a criminal?), you are mistaking a political tactic to a violation of the public trust. Alternatively, you don't actually care what it is, you just want to hate on those on the other team and so make good use of sound bites to slam folks.

On the substance of the matter, the issue (and not the tactics) the public in Wisconsin is turning hard against Walker and his allies (yes, there is polling on this, saw it on CNN yesterday). This is also a possible flash point for a concerted effort on the left to discredit the right wing talking points against public sector unions. The right complains about them being over compensated while typically (and especially in Wisconsin) they are under compensated when compared to workers in the public sector doing the same or similar type jobs. What more, its already a meme that teachers in general are underpaid for the work they do (you know, helping build the next generation of Americans) so running against them by saying they're paid to much is kind of a bad idea. So on the whole, this fiasco is going to push Wisconsin against generic Republican candidate, and if the nominee is seen as closely allied with Walker, it will likely be a hard movement away from them.

[Mehmentum]

PPP polled Walker in the beginning of January and had him at 41% approval  and 49% disaproval, which in itself doesn't bode well for Republicans.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/01/rating-new-governors.html

I'd like to see a newer poll to see how things have changed recently, but the first poll suggests that he isn't that popular outside of the conservative midterm electorate.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think it's possible to say yet.  It depends on whether Walker or the protesters "win" the debate.  If Walker ultimately wins and the union bill passes or the absentee Dems get recalled, then WI is heading for toss up status, maybe even tilt GOP.  If the Senate Dems ultimately get the bill withdrawn or Walker gets recalled, then Obama probably does better than 2008.

[Skill and Chance]

Speaking of recalls, the signature burden on the petitioners is on the order of 10,000 to 20,000 for each state senate district and about 600,000 to recall Governor Walker.  Does anyone know how many signatures it took to recall Gray Davis in CA?  How about lower level offices that have been recalled in CA?  The governor recall number seems  implausibly high to me, but I find it believable that state senators of either party could be recalled.

[exopolitician]

Speaking of recalls, the signature burden on the petitioners is on the order of 10,000 to 20,000 for each state senate district and about 600,000 to recall Governor Walker.  Does anyone know how many signatures it took to recall Gray Davis in CA?  How about lower level offices that have been recalled in CA?  The governor recall number seems  implausibly high to me, but I find it believable that state senators of either party could be recalled.

I thought you had to be in office for a year to even be considered being recalled?

[Skill and Chance]

Speaking of recalls, the signature burden on the petitioners is on the order of 10,000 to 20,000 for each state senate district and about 600,000 to recall Governor Walker.  Does anyone know how many signatures it took to recall Gray Davis in CA?  How about lower level offices that have been recalled in CA?  The governor recall number seems  implausibly high to me, but I find it believable that state senators of either party could be recalled.

I thought you had to be in office for a year to even be considered being recalled?

Walker couldn't be recalled until 2012.  There many state senators from both parties who can be recalled this year.

[nhmagic]

The answer is yes.  Wisconsin (and all of the midwestern states bar Illinois) have been moving right over the last couple of decades.  Bush almost won the state twice and it was the closest dem win state in the 2004 election, with some of the major analysts predicting that Bush would win it.  Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 because it was 2008.  It's a solidly purple state right now for all intents and purposes - akin to Colorado, which has become in my view, even more democratic than Wisconsin.  My liberal friend from Wisconsin has noticed the change.  He says Wisconsin isn't as liberal as it used to be and believes that republicans are making big strides.  

The fact is - any state can be won with the right set of circumstances and throughout history, party power in states has shifted.  The south used to be solidly democrat, now its solidly republican and despite what a lot of people say, southern dems were liberal (take LBJ) for example.  New England used to be solidly republican, now its solidly democratic (with NH as the exception).  If you look at prior maps you can see shifts in states over the years.  Just tells you that people change over time...  Wisconsin is in this process.  Part of solidifying a state though is good governance.  Virginia did a giant U-turn from 2008 after realizing the mistake of Obama.  It probably is not coming back to him.  And there are other factors...Colorado is becoming more democratic because wealthy young adults are moving to the state due to its pleasure amenities - the cool factor, the skiing, etc.  

[DrScholl]

In short, no. The 2010 results are not a good indicator of 2012, because there will be a completely different electorate, one without an enthusiasm gap. 2000 and 2004 was close, but it still was not enough for the Republican to win. Unless a Republican pulls off a landslide, Wisconsin is Democratic at the Presidential level.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only poll I saw on Walker's anti-union plan said 52-42 net disapproval, so that's not going to help.

[krazen1211]

Sarcasm is difficult to detect on the internet isn't it?

As for your last bit there, where you call names and hide behind the anonymity of the internet (like a criminal?), you are mistaking a political tactic to a violation of the public trust. Alternatively, you don't actually care what it is, you just want to hate on those on the other team and so make good use of sound bites to slam folks.

On the substance of the matter, the issue (and not the tactics) the public in Wisconsin is turning hard against Walker and his allies (yes, there is polling on this, saw it on CNN yesterday). This is also a possible flash point for a concerted effort on the left to discredit the right wing talking points against public sector unions. The right complains about them being over compensated while typically (and especially in Wisconsin) they are under compensated when compared to workers in the public sector doing the same or similar type jobs. What more, its already a meme that teachers in general are underpaid for the work they do (you know, helping build the next generation of Americans) so running against them by saying they're paid to much is kind of a bad idea. So on the whole, this fiasco is going to push Wisconsin against generic Republican candidate, and if the nominee is seen as closely allied with Walker, it will likely be a hard movement away from them.

Actually, I'm not the guy calling anyone names. Liberal union heads in Wisconsin  started turning on the 2 Democrats who voted against union contracts in the last lame duck session, and liberal union heads started calling people names.

The rest is just wishful thinking.

[krazen1211]

The only poll I saw on Walker's anti-union plan said 52-42 net disapproval, so that's not going to help.

The treacherous Senate Democrats are far less popular than that.

[izixs]

Actually, I'm not the guy calling anyone names.

Really?

The treacherous Senate Democrats are far less popular than that.

Reaaaalllly?

that's why they flee like criminals

Calling people treacherous and comparing them to criminals is not name calling how? I don't care who started it, but if you're going to continue it you have no standing to call name calling a bad thing.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Considering how close Bush came to winning it of course they have a chance to win it.

[California8429]

The only poll I saw on Walker's anti-union plan said 52-42 net disapproval, so that's not going to help.

I saw a plus 10 for Walker  (vs the unions)from Rasmussen...that's a 20 point swing. I know Rasmussen is a few points more conservative...but still...

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

The only poll I saw on Walker's anti-union plan said 52-42 net disapproval, so that's not going to help.

I saw a plus 10 for Walker  (vs the unions)from Rasmussen...that's a 20 point swing. I know Rasmussen is a few points more conservative...but still...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/rasmussen-poll-on-wisconsin-dispute-may-be-biased/#more-6408

Also, it's a national poll. The other one was of Wisconsin.