The Wisconsin Cheese Showdown

[Verily]

Wow, when even Rasmussen is showing numbers like that, you know the jig is up.

The Pubbies cannot afford to back down, and won't.

They may not have to. Recall petitions are already circulating on the eight GOP Senators who currently qualify for a recall. Of them, two were reelected by a combined margin of less than 2,000 votes in 2010--a rather ominous sign for a recall election--while a couple of others also represent marginal seats.

[Horus]

The whole bill actually wouldn't bother me that much if police were subjected to the same penalties. Police always get off far better than other public employees, and that needs to stop, because they are the most likely to abuse the system in the first place!

[cinyc]

Wow, when even Rasmussen is showing numbers like that, you know the jig is up.

The Pubbies cannot afford to back down, and won't.

They may not have to. Recall petitions are already circulating on the eight GOP Senators who currently qualify for a recall. Of them, two were reelected by a combined margin of less than 2,000 votes in 2010--a rather ominous sign for a recall election--while a couple of others also represent marginal seats.

Recalls can work both ways, you know.  Cowards who flee the state to avoid doing their jobs are subject to recall, too.  

It would be quite a shame if the two DEMOCRATS who won by less than 2,000 votes in 2010 were subject to recall, especially the Democrat who won 401 votes.  Oh, and by the way, if the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's numbers are right, NO Republicans won by less than 2,000 votes in 2010.  Maybe 2008?

[Brittain33]

Cinyc, go for it. I could have made the same argument in '09 that voting against health care reform was going to be deadly for Republicans in Obama districts. I would love to live in a world where obstructionism was punished... instead I live in the world where the 2010 election happens. That's the template.

Even Rasmussen has Walker's disapproval rating up to 57%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/wisconsin/wisconsin_governor_walker_43_approval_rating

The polling shows the public is very much not on the Republicans' side. I didn't predict this would be the outcome, and I'm surprised to see them rallying to the unions' side. Like many here, I thought unions and teachers were less popular than they were. I think both sides of senators can see where the future lies, and also which party is more overextended in the Wisconsin legislature based on partisan fundamentals. I think the last thing Walker wants is to have to take this back to the voters in recalls, either in offense or defense... their plan was to ram this partisan bill through the legislature without people noticing and hope it only made them stronger. It's already too late for that.

Which Republican senator wants to be the next Suzanne Kosmas?

[Brittain33]

BTW, the Rasmussen poll shows Walker tanking among voters with children in schools. That was the Republicans' base--solid, traditional, middle class American families, not unmarrieds. Bad move.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BTW, the Rasmussen poll shows Walker tanking among voters with children in schools. That was the Republicans' base--solid, traditional, middle class American families, not unmarrieds. Bad move.

How shocking that parents don't think that schools are dens of depravity.

[Dan the Roman]

Wow, when even Rasmussen is showing numbers like that, you know the jig is up.

The Pubbies cannot afford to back down, and won't.

They may not have to. Recall petitions are already circulating on the eight GOP Senators who currently qualify for a recall. Of them, two were reelected by a combined margin of less than 2,000 votes in 2010--a rather ominous sign for a recall election--while a couple of others also represent marginal seats.

Recalls can work both ways, you know.  Cowards who flee the state to avoid doing their jobs are subject to recall, too.  

It would be quite a shame if the two DEMOCRATS who won by less than 2,000 votes in 2010 were subject to recall, especially the Democrat who won 401 votes.  Oh, and by the way, if the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's numbers are right, NO Republicans won by less than 2,000 votes in 2010.  Maybe 2008?

Actually neither group is eligible for recall. Only those Senators elected in 2008 are eligible, which means there are probably more vulnerable Democrats than Republicans.

Frankly though, SSP posted a PVI index for the districts and most of the Democrats hold pretty safe districts. The two most vulnerable who are eligible for recall are 56% and 59% Obama respectively.

[krazen1211]

http://www.fox11online.com/dpp/news/140-green-bay-teachers-looking-to-retire


REEN BAY - The Green Bay School Board has approved a large number of retirement requests from teachers and administrators.

With the future of the state budget uncertain, 140 teachers and 15 administrators asked to join the emeritus program. That works out to about 1 out of every 12 teachers in the district.

The emeritus program gives one full year's salary paid over three years. That is in addition to pension benefits. In return, the retiree provides 10 days of service to the district each year during that time. The emeritus program is something that has been negotiated into the teachers' contract through collective bargaining.





1 year salary for 30 days of work.....Can someone explain to me what the purpose of an 'emeritus' program is?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

1 year salary for 30 days of work..... Can someone explain to me what the purpose of an 'emeritus' program is?

You are being inconsistent.  They aren't being a full year's salary under your usual method of calculating their salary, which includes benefits.  Since they are already getting those benefits as "retirees" and don't get double benefits, they are being paid considerably less than a year's salary to be available as emeriti.

As for what the purpose is besides gouging money from their employer, one reason might be to encourage older teachers to retire, tho I agree getting paid at that rate seems excessive for that purpose.  Another would be to have a pool of experienced teachers available to either mentor new teachers or act as substitute teachers who can do more than just babysit a class for a day.

[cinyc]

1 year salary for 30 days of work..... Can someone explain to me what the purpose of an 'emeritus' program is?

You are being inconsistent.  They aren't being a full year's salary under your usual method of calculating their salary, which includes benefits.  Since they are already getting those benefits as "retirees" and don't get double benefits, they are being paid considerably less than a year's salary to be available as emeriti.

As for what the purpose is besides gouging money from their employer, one reason might be to encourage older teachers to retire, tho I agree getting paid at that rate seems excessive for that purpose.  Another would be to have a pool of experienced teachers available to either mentor new teachers or act as substitute teachers who can do more than just babysit a class for a day.

If the retired teachers made $75,000 per year, they are getting paid $25,000 each year over three years to retire.  As long as the new hires make $25,000 less per year in pay and benefits than the retirees (i.e. salary is below $50,000 or salary plus benefits is $25,000 less than the cost of an experienced teacher), the district is better off financially.  New hires might also be in a different pension benefit level with a lower required employer contribution.   Or there might not be a new hire replacement at all, saving money.

FICA taxes and other benefit payments might skew the math a bit to make the $25,000 in my hypothetical, $30,000 or $35,000 - but you get the point.  It sometimes makes economic sense to pay senior employees to retire.

[Verily]

Wow, when even Rasmussen is showing numbers like that, you know the jig is up.

The Pubbies cannot afford to back down, and won't.

They may not have to. Recall petitions are already circulating on the eight GOP Senators who currently qualify for a recall. Of them, two were reelected by a combined margin of less than 2,000 votes in 2010--a rather ominous sign for a recall election--while a couple of others also represent marginal seats.

Recalls can work both ways, you know.  Cowards who flee the state to avoid doing their jobs are subject to recall, too.  

It would be quite a shame if the two DEMOCRATS who won by less than 2,000 votes in 2010 were subject to recall, especially the Democrat who won 401 votes.  Oh, and by the way, if the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's numbers are right, NO Republicans won by less than 2,000 votes in 2010.  Maybe 2008?

Ah, right, must have been 2008 because you can't be recalled within a year of election (which is why no one is trying to recall Walker, for example).

Also, polling has shown pretty strong support for the Democratic side in Wisconsin by the voters, so I doubt the Democrats would do worse in recalls.

[krazen1211]

1 year salary for 30 days of work..... Can someone explain to me what the purpose of an 'emeritus' program is?

You are being inconsistent.  They aren't being a full year's salary under your usual method of calculating their salary, which includes benefits.  Since they are already getting those benefits as "retirees" and don't get double benefits, they are being paid considerably less than a year's salary to be available as emeriti.

As for what the purpose is besides gouging money from their employer, one reason might be to encourage older teachers to retire, tho I agree getting paid at that rate seems excessive for that purpose.  Another would be to have a pool of experienced teachers available to either mentor new teachers or act as substitute teachers who can do more than just babysit a class for a day.

If the idea is get someone to retire, one would think that the salary structure could be changed, to not reward mere seniority so much, along with their LIFO policy.

Why do we pay older teachers so much more if we don't want them around? And why wouldn't we just fire them if we don't want them around?

Personally, I differentiate between the words salary and compensation. 'Payment' might mean either of the 2, but imo salary is quite clearly cash/income based.


Edit: You are somewhat correct about the purpose, it seems. Under the purview of the odd seniority based salary increases, it is designed as a cost reducer.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Personally, I differentiate between the words salary and compensation. 'Payment' might mean either of the 2, but imo salary is quite clearly cash/income based.

Don't bother trying to hide behind what the meaning of is is.  If anti-union conservatives are going to complain about what teachers are being paid, all I ask is that you be consistent about which yardstick is used to measure payment.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

http://mms.tveyes.com/Transcript.asp?StationID=5100&DateTime=3/1/2011+5:02:32+AM&Term=%22AFL+CIO%22&PlayClip=TRUE

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2011/03/are_wisconsin_republicans_gett.html

Looks like some of the Republicans might be wavering.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There are three Republicans who barely won last time who are recall-eligible, one whose district is based around Oshkosh with some more conservative areas, one who has a district based around La Crosse and some Democratic rural areas and one who must be a really lousy politician as her seat is mostly northern Milwaukee suburbs (part goes very close to the city though so it's probably more swing than it appears at a casual glance.) The La Crosse one strikes me as the best target even though he won by the widest margin. The Oshkosh one who won by about a hundred votes is obviously a very ripe target as well. Of course if these two fold, it might save their jobs.

[Torie]

There are three Republicans who barely won last time who are recall-eligible, one whose district is based around Oshkosh with some more conservative areas, one who has a district based around La Crosse and some Democratic rural areas and one who must be a really lousy politician as her seat is mostly northern Milwaukee suburbs (part goes very close to the city though so it's probably more swing than it appears at a casual glance.) The La Crosse one strikes me as the best target even though he won by the widest margin. The Oshkosh one who won by about a hundred votes is obviously a very ripe target as well. Of course if these two fold, it might save their jobs.

Won't the Pubbies gerrymander the sh*t out of the state, and make the marginals safe?  If so, even if a couple of Dems sneak in, presumably they will be bounced right back out in 2012. Wisconsin is a pretty easy state to gerrymander with smaller districts. The problem with WI-03, is that too much population was involved to carve out GOP pockets. The balance of the Dems are packed mostly in three spots, that can be pretty tightly circumscribed. It should not be too hard to give the GOP a hammerlock on 60% of the seats, and thus a quorum.

[ag]

Then they should do the gerrymander fast. Because if Dems manage the recall thing before that, their agreement might be needed for whatever gerrymander gets adopted.

[Torie]

Then they should do the gerrymander fast. Because if Dems manage the recall thing before that, their agreement might be needed for whatever gerrymander gets adopted.

What is the time line for the recall thing?  The Pubbies are doing the same thing of course. When might the interim election be?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The difference is that all the Democrats remaining are in pretty safe districts. And there's not much you can do to shore up the La Crosse-based seat, even all the rural areas around it are Democratic.

God I hate talking about or hearing about La Crosse.

[Torie]

The difference is that all the Democrats remaining are in pretty safe districts. And there's not much you can do to shore up the La Crosse-based seat, even all the rural areas around it are Democratic.

God I hate talking about or hearing about La Crosse.

A senate district in Wisconsin needs a big hunk of voters outside the county?  In any event, there is some marginal territory around it. It would be a snap, when you can move your mouse around with no legal constraints. How many folks are in a Wisconsin state senate district? I'll draw it for you.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's 33 districts. You need about 170k people per district. And Senate districts aren't drawn themselves, they are made by combining three Assembly districts.

[Torie]

There's 33 districts. You need about 170k people per district. And Senate districts aren't drawn themselves, they are made by combining three Assembly districts.

Any restrictions on how the assembly seats are drawn?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not that I know of. But this is the current seat and because of that you can't split La Crosse as they wouldn't want a 67% Obama city making up half of two Assembly districts. So you could add it to some "marginal" territory perhaps, but probably the absolute best you're getting in that area is like 57% Obama or so. It doesn't help that most of that "marginal" territory already belongs to another Republican State Senator (granted he is the one who has already caved, but he's also been in a long time so I don't see him being thrown under the bus for an attempt to save someone which may not work anyway.)

[Torie]

Oh what a fun project for me!  

What are the stats of the current La Cross based Senate district I wonder? It looks like Bush 2004 carried it, by maybe 52-48 or something. Is a Dem holding it currently? If he is, I suspect he is in the cross hairs of a Pubbie recall.

Why can't you Dem pack one of the 3 assembly districts in whatever senate district the Pubbies draw? Wouldn't that take care of that?  And I have a lot of practice in Dem packing. I'm the master of the art really.

By the way, the WSJ article is going to be published soon on redistricting games played by the folks, and this site is going to get a lot more attention I suspect. We shall see.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Oh what a fun project for me!  

What are the stats of the current La Cross based Senate district I wonder? It looks like Bush 2004 carried it, by maybe 52-48 or something. Is a Dem holding it currently? If he is, I suspect he is in the cross hairs of a Pubbie recall.

The district in question was 53-46 Kerry and 61-38 Obama, per SSP.