Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[phk]

Syria will go sectarian once Assad's position looks fragile.

Have the protests been mostly sunni led?

Probably like 95%+ are Sunni-led.

The Assad's maintained rule by creating divisions within Syrian society. The regime actively promoted Alawites (a branch of Shi'ism, the sect of Assad) to leadership positions within the government, the military and the state security systems. I'm expecting mercenaries to arrive from southern Lebanon and Iran, if they aren't there already. Maybe Sunnis from other countries like Jordan, Libya, Saudi Arabia, etc. coming out to help their coreligionists? BRTD has described it kind of like a reverse Iraq. Makes me wonder if Saddam Hussein was a Shi'a or some other non-Sunni sect, just how much Muslim opinion on Iraq would have been different.

The government (particularly under Bashar) has also greatly favored the business class Sunnis while cracking down on the Muslim Brotherhood (also Sunnis). Christians in Syria have traditionally supported the government's effort to hold off the Sunni Islamist challenges, out of fear that they would be discriminated against.

Lastly, as the crackdown in Syria escalates and as more and more Syrians are killed the desire for revenge on one side and the fear of revenge on the other (protesters and supporters of the regime, respectively) sharpen the possibility for sectarian strife.

Should Assad fall, the Alawite community would retain many of the weapons of the military and would certainly be reluctant to disarm considering the fears of retribution for supporting Assad. Other sects (some Christians, business class Sunnis) are certain to face some retaliation for standing against the uprising as well.

The key to avoiding sectarian strife in Syria is disarming the Alawite army commanders and providing guarantees against retribution. Of course, there really is no way to tell whether a post-Assad Syria would erupt.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

With Qaddafi gone, now it's on to Syria...  

Too little oil.

What Syria may lack in natural resources, it makes up for in strategic importance as an ally of Iran and benefactor of Islamist terrorist organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas. 

Sooner or later, once the opposition unifies and broadens its appeal to Aleppo and Damascus, the United States -though NATO- will intervene there as well. 

Lol.

[2952-0-0]

With Qaddafi gone, now it's on to Syria...  

Too little oil.

What Syria may lack in natural resources, it makes up for in strategic importance as an ally of Iran and benefactor of Islamist terrorist organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas. 

Sooner or later, once the opposition unifies and broadens its appeal to Aleppo and Damascus, the United States -though NATO- will intervene there as well. 

I think Obama wants to get re-elected.

[GMantis]

I highly doubt that there will be a military intervention in Syria.  The Syrian military's strong enough and the rebellion disorganized enough that the "NATO airpower plus local rebel soldiers on the ground" model has zero chance of success (call me back if the Syrian rebels become a realistic military force).  Without that, there's simply no way to oust Assad without NATO (esp. American) boots on the ground, and that simply is not going to happen.

Not to mention that Israel wouldn't really like a pro-Western government in Syria, as it would remove their justification for holding the Golan heights.

[Silent Hunter]

I highly doubt that there will be a military intervention in Syria.  The Syrian military's strong enough and the rebellion disorganized enough that the "NATO airpower plus local rebel soldiers on the ground" model has zero chance of success (call me back if the Syrian rebels become a realistic military force).  Without that, there's simply no way to oust Assad without NATO (esp. American) boots on the ground, and that simply is not going to happen.

Not to mention that Israel wouldn't really like a pro-Western government in Syria, as it would remove their justification for holding the Golan heights.

They wouldn't need the Golan Heights with a pro-Western government in Syria.

[Sbane]

No, they probably just want to keep the Golan heights. Any settlements there yet?

[2952-0-0]

No, they probably just want to keep the Golan heights. Any settlements there yet?

There are not just settlements in the Golan Heights. It's been formally annexed into Israeli territory, which isn't the case for the West Bank and Gaza.

[Sbane]

No, they probably just want to keep the Golan heights. Any settlements there yet?

There are not just settlements in the Golan Heights. It's been formally annexed into Israeli territory, which isn't the case for the West Bank and Gaza.

Aha, thanks for that info. Lol at the notion Israel will ever get rid of it then.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well they did leave Sinai, though that was back when their leadership wasn't quite as insane.

[Insula Dei]

Well they did leave Sinai, though that was back when their leadership wasn't quite as insane.

More importantly, they got a secure Southern border for it. Israel actually feared Egypt, I'm quite sure noone in Jerusalem's upper echelons fears the Syrians, today.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Our rebel buddies have spoken.....

[Verily]

They're right. I think an American court would probably laugh out the case as double jeopardy, anyway. At the least, it would be an interesting constitutional question whether foreign trials, especially those resulting in conviction, count towards the constitutional prohibition on double jeopardy.

[Joe Republic]

Oh just get MI6 to take him out and be done with it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the classic Monkey/Organ Grinder situation he's absolutely not the Organ Grinder, so... er... why even...

[Joe Republic]

In the classic Monkey/Organ Grinder situation he's absolutely not the Organ Grinder, so... er... why even...

But if the monkey is dead, the organ grinder looks rather silly, doesn't he? 

[King]

In the classic Monkey/Organ Grinder situation he's absolutely not the Organ Grinder, so... er... why even...

But if the monkey is dead, the organ grinder looks rather silly, doesn't he? 

If the organ grinder is dead, the monkey becomes a FF.

[Silent Hunter]

They're right. I think an American court would probably laugh out the case as double jeopardy, anyway. At the least, it would be an interesting constitutional question whether foreign trials, especially those resulting in conviction, count towards the constitutional prohibition on double jeopardy.

Also, "non-extradition of citizens" rules are by no means uncommon.

Plus the guy appears to be in a coma now.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I don't believe in possibility of military intervention in Syria for following reasons:

1. NATO and US are already quite tired with Libya and obviously have little idea what to do with present problem
2. Obama already took a huge political risk in joining intervention in Libya. He's neither gambler nor an idiot
3. No player in the region wants regime change. Israel doesn't love Assad, but don't want to risk losing a predictable neighbour either. Neither wants Lebanon. Saudis and other Gulf monarchies are worried about spreading of the unrests and will sit with the present rulers (hell, Saudis are already scared with Yemen and were with Bahrain). Iran is a close Syrian ally. Iraq is too concerned about it's own fragile security and fragile government to wish any additional meltdown.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

So are we better off now?  If so, how?

[Silent Hunter]

I don't believe in possibility of military intervention in Syria for following reasons:

1. NATO and US are already quite tired with Libya and obviously have little idea what to do with present problem
2. Obama already took a huge political risk in joining intervention in Libya. He's neither gambler nor an idiot
3. No player in the region wants regime change. Israel doesn't love Assad, but don't want to risk losing a predictable neighbour either. Neither wants Lebanon. Saudis and other Gulf monarchies are worried about spreading of the unrests and will sit with the present rulers (hell, Saudis are already scared with Yemen and were with Bahrain). Iran is a close Syrian ally. Iraq is too concerned about it's own fragile security and fragile government to wish any additional meltdown.

Also, the Russians (the primary weapons seller to Assad) don't want to lose a major client.

[GMantis]

I don't believe in possibility of military intervention in Syria for following reasons:

1. NATO and US are already quite tired with Libya and obviously have little idea what to do with present problem
2. Obama already took a huge political risk in joining intervention in Libya. He's neither gambler nor an idiot
3. No player in the region wants regime change. Israel doesn't love Assad, but don't want to risk losing a predictable neighbour either. Neither wants Lebanon. Saudis and other Gulf monarchies are worried about spreading of the unrests and will sit with the present rulers (hell, Saudis are already scared with Yemen and were with Bahrain). Iran is a close Syrian ally. Iraq is too concerned about it's own fragile security and fragile government to wish any additional meltdown.

Also, the Russians (the primary weapons seller to Assad) don't want to lose a major client.

As if their opinion mattered...

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

AU head: Libya rebels may be killing black workers

Our new buddies

http://news.yahoo.com/au-head-libya-rebels-may-killing-black-workers-153142974.html

[Verily]

AU head: Libya rebels may be killing black workers

Our new buddies

http://news.yahoo.com/au-head-libya-rebels-may-killing-black-workers-153142974.html

Source: The African Union, which is full of dictators bought and paid for by Gaddafi.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, he was their King of Kings, after all.

[tpfkaw]

Historic Church of St. George in Tripoli Ransacked

Freedom fighters!