Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[King]

Interesting...

[John Dibble]

Both Qaddafi and the rebels have taken/lost a city today.  In the words of Sam Spade, "Interesting..."

Well, fighting is still occurring over Zawiya. It's not Gaddafi's win yet, but it's kind of looking like it might end up that way unless something major changes.

[Mr. Morden]

Even if Gaddafi "wins", does he really have enough loyal troops to invade and occupy the east?  Might this turn into a pre-9/11 Afghanistan situation, with the country divided and in a quasi-equilibrium ongoing state of civil war?

[Mr. Morden]

green = held by pro-Gaddafi forces
red = held by anti-Gaddafi forces
yellow = ongoing fighting / unclear situation

[King]

green = held by pro-Gaddafi forces
red = held by anti-Gaddafi forces
yellow = ongoing fighting / unclear situation

The forum can't display SVGs.  Here you go:

[Mr. Morden]

The forum can't display SVGs.

It shows up just fine in my browser.

[King]

The forum can't display SVGs.

It shows up just fine in my browser.

Hmm... I've always been able to see them on Wikipedia, but never when I try to post them here.

For those who also couldn't see it, there it is.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Morden's showed up fine for me too.

[Sbane]

And the west is watching all this without doing anything...

Who are we to be world police and impose our cultural values on others? You don't want to be a colonialist imperialist, do you?

The west gains nothing from intervening. If we can get some Arab states to do our dirty job then we should go for it. Otherwise the west needs to stay out.

except that no Middle Eastern or African Nation has frozen Gaddafi's assets. (And the chairman of the African Union is freaking Teodoro Obiang of Equatorial Guinea, a nation that has blacked out all coverage of the Libyan uprising)

the Arab government's are in an interesting spot of doing nothing to work for greater freedoms, and then using their media outlets to blame other people for their problems.

In other words, wait on the Arab league, and watch Muammar do a Saddam 1991 on the protesters as the Arab League does nothing. Followed by the people thinking the US is bad. And do something, and watch people think the US is bad.

So it's a matter of choosing who you want to be madder at you. And here, it'd probably be a lot of refugees who will have lost everything and who would have a grudge against the US government.

In the scheme of things, either Gaddafi dies or the protesters die. There's no exile or no compromise.

Oh yeah, they're gonna hold prayers outdoors in the Green Square to make it easier to murder any protesters. And Misurata got bombed.

Damn, deciding on a No-Fly Zone is hard, let's give Gaddafi a few more weeks to attack his opposition from the air.

Why do we owe the protestors anything? We shouldn't give Gaddafi any support but I don't see why military intervention is necessary. Then everyone is going to say the US is going in for the oil. It looks bad, and we don't gain anything. It's time to stop playing policeman.

[phk]

And the west is watching all this without doing anything...

Who are we to be world police and impose our cultural values on others? You don't want to be a colonialist imperialist, do you?

The west gains nothing from intervening. If we can get some Arab states to do our dirty job then we should go for it. Otherwise the west needs to stay out.

except that no Middle Eastern or African Nation has frozen Gaddafi's assets. (And the chairman of the African Union is freaking Teodoro Obiang of Equatorial Guinea, a nation that has blacked out all coverage of the Libyan uprising)

the Arab government's are in an interesting spot of doing nothing to work for greater freedoms, and then using their media outlets to blame other people for their problems.

In other words, wait on the Arab league, and watch Muammar do a Saddam 1991 on the protesters as the Arab League does nothing. Followed by the people thinking the US is bad. And do something, and watch people think the US is bad.

So it's a matter of choosing who you want to be madder at you. And here, it'd probably be a lot of refugees who will have lost everything and who would have a grudge against the US government.

In the scheme of things, either Gaddafi dies or the protesters die. There's no exile or no compromise.

Oh yeah, they're gonna hold prayers outdoors in the Green Square to make it easier to murder any protesters. And Misurata got bombed.

Damn, deciding on a No-Fly Zone is hard, let's give Gaddafi a few more weeks to attack his opposition from the air.

Why do we owe the protestors anything? We shouldn't give Gaddafi any support but I don't see why military intervention is necessary. Then everyone is going to say the US is going in for the oil. It looks bad, and we don't gain anything. It's time to stop playing policeman.

He is drawing a parallel to how the US should have saved the Iraqi Shi'ites in 1991 from Saddam Hussein's wrath.

This is somewhat different anyway.

Until Qaddafi loses control of Sabha we wont find anything interesting.

[Platypus]

Who else agrees that alcohol being illegal in Libya is enough justification to overthrow the government and kill anyone who supports it?

You're so hip!

[RBH]

Saturday Morning in Az Zawiyah: Gaddafi tanks roll in, at least 6 are taken out. The elite Libyan troops are executing people in the streets. Tanks are shelling the city. After a bit of fighting, the Gaddafi side retreats. And presumably by the time you read this, they might move back in.

As to the protester side being owed anything. All they're owed is a fair chance and a reduced chance of having war criminals violate all human norms in fighting them. The farthest you could go is a no-fly zone because of the realities of moving troops to the West over a long road.

Also, it would not shock me if the explosion in Benghazi that has claimed 27 was a Gaddafi-ordered event. But I can imagine that they have reasons to not admit that terrorist acts behind the lines occurred.

Oh yeah, the Libyan request to suspend the sanctions, contrasted with them killing people in the streets of Az Zawiyah and shooting at anything that moves there... yeah, they're not gonna get a suspension. And by this point, they're one big blow from circling the drain. Mercs are mercs, and the Libyan units can only fight for so long against a foe that's not going to roll over and die.

[Sbane]

And the west is watching all this without doing anything...

Who are we to be world police and impose our cultural values on others? You don't want to be a colonialist imperialist, do you?

The west gains nothing from intervening. If we can get some Arab states to do our dirty job then we should go for it. Otherwise the west needs to stay out.

except that no Middle Eastern or African Nation has frozen Gaddafi's assets. (And the chairman of the African Union is freaking Teodoro Obiang of Equatorial Guinea, a nation that has blacked out all coverage of the Libyan uprising)

the Arab government's are in an interesting spot of doing nothing to work for greater freedoms, and then using their media outlets to blame other people for their problems.

In other words, wait on the Arab league, and watch Muammar do a Saddam 1991 on the protesters as the Arab League does nothing. Followed by the people thinking the US is bad. And do something, and watch people think the US is bad.

So it's a matter of choosing who you want to be madder at you. And here, it'd probably be a lot of refugees who will have lost everything and who would have a grudge against the US government.

In the scheme of things, either Gaddafi dies or the protesters die. There's no exile or no compromise.

Oh yeah, they're gonna hold prayers outdoors in the Green Square to make it easier to murder any protesters. And Misurata got bombed.

Damn, deciding on a No-Fly Zone is hard, let's give Gaddafi a few more weeks to attack his opposition from the air.

Why do we owe the protestors anything? We shouldn't give Gaddafi any support but I don't see why military intervention is necessary. Then everyone is going to say the US is going in for the oil. It looks bad, and we don't gain anything. It's time to stop playing policeman.

He is drawing a parallel to how the US should have saved the Iraqi Shi'ites in 1991 from Saddam Hussein's wrath.

This is somewhat different anyway.

Until Qaddafi loses control of Sabha we wont find anything interesting.

The problem with that uprising by the shiites in 1991 was that it followed a few months after a US military operation. That is why they could have expected US support.

We have our hands relatively clean in Libya. Let's keep it that way.

[Zarn]

According to BBC:

1651: Fear and anger in rebel-held Benghazi after the massive arms depot blast, AFP reports. People the agency interviewed were unwilling to give their full names, fearing reprisals from Gaddafi forces. "There will be rivers of blood," said one man in jeans and a leather jacket. "It won't be like in Tunisia and Egypt. How long will the West hold back and do nothing? People are asking why the West is watching without doing anything."

[Beet]

Gaddafi's assault on Zawiya has failed. Hopefully the rebels were able to capture some ammunition. That makes three defeats for Gaddafi - Brega, Ras Lanuf, and now Zawiya.

[Nhoj]

Gaddafi's assault on Zawiya has failed. Hopefully the rebels were able to capture some ammunition. That makes three defeats for Gaddafi - Brega, Ras Lanuf, and now Zawiya.

Gaddafi's forces are either incompetent or have no heart in it, I suppose it is probably both.

[John Dibble]

Apparently the rebels have detained eight British SAS soldiers that were escorting a British diplomat who wanted to talk to the rebel leaders.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5i1dZuBGJTH-ezSVti9O82DwqUxTg?docId=N0319741299378132768A

[Sam Spade]

Arab troops are notoriously bad - though I doubt this will be Gaddafi's last assault on the towns mentioned.

[Torie]

Why hasn't someone put a bullet through the madman's head yet?  That seems to be indicated. This needs to end.

[Nhoj]

BBC is reporting heavy gunfire in Tripoli no word on whats actually going on though.

[Beet]

Libyan state TV now claims they have taken Zawiya and Misurata. If so it would be huge, but it's hard to believe. There's no reaction on Intrade yet. I think it's best to discount this unless there is independent confirmation.

[Nhoj]

Libyan state TV now claims they have taken Zawiya and Misurata. If so it would be huge, but it's hard to believe. There's no reaction on Intrade yet. I think it's best to discount this unless there is independent confirmation.

They seem to "retake zawiya" everyday. So until their is some media taken into the town and shown its cleared i wouldn't buy it.

[Beet]

Libyan state TV now claims they have taken Zawiya and Misurata. If so it would be huge, but it's hard to believe. There's no reaction on Intrade yet. I think it's best to discount this unless there is independent confirmation.

They seem to "retake zawiya" everyday. So until their is some media taken into the town and shown its cleared i wouldn't buy it.

Yea, AJE just had on someone from Misrata who said that government forces are nowhere near there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Libyan state propaganda outlet has had about as much reliability as Baghdad Bob. Why even pay attention to them?

[Nhoj]

The Libyan state propaganda outlet has had about as much reliability as Baghdad Bob. Why even pay attention to them?

Yeah BBC says state tv even claims they have taken Tobruk so yeah BS.