The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.greecepost.com/opinion/x1058163492/Editorial-Congresswoman-Hochul-would-be-best-for-Greece

!!!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/05/12/starting_trouble_in_ny-26.html

If this really turns out to have been the way it looks in this short video, this could be Jack Davis' 'macaca moment'.

Sure didn't help Bob Etheridge, that's for sure.

Yeah, but Davis smacked down a Librul!!!

Apparently it was Corwin's Chief of Staff behind the camera.

Not sure when CoS's started spending their time being trackers though.

Wasn't Rand Paul's COS playing the role of stalker right after the primary in KY last spring?

It's not a campaign worker, it's her Assembly office Chief of Staff.

So illegal then?

[Meeker]

Not necessarily. Staffers are free to help out with political campaigns in their own free time. They'd run into legal issues if he was doing this during the workday or if he used state resources in some way.

[Bacon King]

http://www.greecepost.com/opinion/x1058163492/Editorial-Congresswoman-Hochul-would-be-best-for-Greece

!!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece_(town),_New_York

[Lunar]

Watch the BN's editorial meeting interviews, Hochul is by far the best

http://video.buffalonews.com/player/?id=2938&category=NY26%20Special%20Election

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Not necessarily. Staffers are free to help out with political campaigns in their own free time. They'd run into legal issues if he was doing this during the workday or if he used state resources in some way.

In my experience, almost every legislative office staffer winds up doubling as a political campaign staffer -- most save up vacation days for use in late October/early November. It's definitely illegal for the two efforts to overlap, which is why campaigns, candidates, and staffers usually go to great lengths to ensure they operate within the law.

[Badger]

Not necessarily. Staffers are free to help out with political campaigns in their own free time. They'd run into legal issues if he was doing this during the workday or if he used state resources in some way.

In my experience, almost every legislative office staffer winds up doubling as a political campaign staffer -- most save up vacation days for use in late October/early November. It's definitely illegal for the two efforts to overlap, which is why campaigns, candidates, and staffers usually go to great lengths to ensure they operate within the law.

So, is there any indication that paper wall was broken here?

Polls, someonw. Do a poll!

[Eraserhead]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/05/12/starting_trouble_in_ny-26.html

If this really turns out to have been the way it looks in this short video, this could be Jack Davis' 'macaca moment'.

LOL, that's awesome. The crazy old man has my firmest support.

Seconded!

[Brittain33]

Rothenberg has moved the race to toss-up/lean Democratic. Claims that Davis is deflating but Corwin is not benefiting. Holy crap. Special elections in upstate New York are just unnecessarily cruel to Republicans, no?

[Eraserhead]

Rothenberg has moved the race to toss-up/lean Democratic. Claims that Davis is deflating but Corwin is not benefiting. Holy crap. Special elections in upstate New York are just unnecessarily cruel to Republicans, no?

They deserve every bit of that cruelty, brittain!

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Hochul wins, how will that affect redistricting?

[Napoleon]

Crazy Jack Davis seems to be kind of a fun guy.

[Smash255]

If Hochul wins, how will that affect redistricting?

If Slaughter retires its easy, if not its a little more complicated.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Hochul wins, how will that affect redistricting?

If Slaughter retires its easy, if not its a little more complicated.

The second hypothesis is far more interesting.

I assume the Dems could very well dismantle her district. On paper they will lose a Democratic incumbent, but in reality they will be dismantling a Republican district.

[Smash255]

If Hochul wins, how will that affect redistricting?

If Slaughter retires its easy, if not its a little more complicated.

The second hypothesis is far more interesting.

I assume the Dems could very well dismantle her district. On paper they will lose a Democratic incumbent, but in reality they will be dismantling a Republican district.

Also have to keep in mind Cuomo's veto threat to any Gerrymandered maps, especially considering what is going on in the State Senate with Skelos backing down from the agreement prior to Election Day.

[Napoleon]

And Democrats wouldn't really gain anything, Buerkle would benefit most of all by freeing up a lot more Republican votes to spread around.

[RBH]

Chris Lee should have just resigned and then ran for re-election to his seat

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It wouldn't be too hard to give Slaughter a solely Rochester based district, and Hochul and Higgins just splitting Buffalo.

[Mr.Phips]

It wouldn't be too hard to give Slaughter a solely Rochester based district, and Hochul and Higgins just splitting Buffalo.

That's probably what will happen.  In turn, Reed will be shored up by taking the rural counties now in NY-26 and losing most of Monroe county to Slaughter. 

[Badger]

I don't see how that could happen. It's a big struggle to draw two Obama +10 districts out of Buffalo alone, and a Monroe County district wouldn't be more than +10 to 12 Obama. That's pretty solid, but not necessarily safe, especially for an immoderate like Slaughter. Western NY is really conservative compared to the rest of the state, or even compared to NY-23 (which borders Vermont and Quebec, after all); Buffalo, Niagara Falls ,and a few suburban municipalities are the only Dem-friendly places, except for the odd college town (e.g. Geneseo, Alfred). Any attempt to squeeze 3 Dem districts out of Rochester and Buffalo would be a dummymander.

The most likely outcome, I think, is that the Dems sacrifice the seat to avoid putting anyone else on the line. Higgins gets a Buffalo-Niagara Falls district that went for Obama by over 60%, Slaughter gets a similarly solid Rochester-Syracuse or Rochester-Ithaca district. Higgins or Owens might pick up any Dem leftovers in Syracuse or Tompkins county.

Welcome to the forum, and please post much more often.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Slaughter already had a Rochester-based district prior to 2000 and she's like 1000 years old anyway. I just drew what a likely Rochester-based seat would look like and it's 58.5% Obama. There is only one district in the country with a higher Obama percentage held by a Republican (IL-10), and that's in Obama's home state where he obviously overperformed.

[HST1948]

It's kind of crazy here with advertising. I was watching the evening news and during one commercial break there were only commercials for this one election (seriously none for anything other than this). I saw that the DCCC and American cross roads both sponsored adds (in addition to some others which I don't remember). Jane Corwin is attacking both Hochul and Davis for "having strings attached" to Nancy Pelosi and argues that they will be her puppets if elected. Corwin accused Hochul of planning to cut medicare and social security while raising taxes (the medicare part actually made a news story because it is actually an outright fallacy- which Hochul contested).  Hochul's new commercial states that she will cut spending "the right way", one way which she mentioned is by "voting to cut aid to pakistan and any other country that doesn't support us".  And of course Davis' commercials focus on the "failures of both parties" and how both parties shipped "our jobs overseas".

It's getting king of crazy here (at least for WNY).     

[HST1948]

According to WIVB ( a local news station) siena will be releasing a poll tomorrow morning at 10:00am for the NY-26 special election.

[Verily]

There's no way you could/would stretch a district from Rochester to Syracuse or Ithaca. Buffalo only works because you're going along a coastline. The most erose a Rochester district is likely to get, if it pulls out of Buffalo, is an extension down to take in the small and very Democratic college town of Geneseo in Livingston County. Slaughter would be absolutely, 100% safe in the 59-60% Obama seat that would result from carving out a few ultra-GOP bits of western Monroe County.

[Lunar]

According to WIVB ( a local news station) siena will be releasing a poll tomorrow morning at 10:00am for the NY-26 special election.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/weigel/archive/2011/05/21/ny-26-democrat-takes-lead.aspx

Kathy Hochul (D) - 42 (+11)
Jane Corwin (R) - 38 (+2)
Jack Davis (Tea) - 12 (-9)
Ian Murphy (G) - 1 (no change)