Polls continue to dismiss the theory that Mitt could lose the South, as he seems to be the GOP's strongest candidate there. Also, nice showing for Cain, even though it's his homestate. Maybe he won't be a complete joke candidate.
These, so far, are the head-to-head matchups between President Obama and both Romney and Huckabee. So far it looks as if President Obama would win against either Romney or Huckabee in 2012 much as in 2008. There remain plenty of blank spaces, but except for Colorado and Indiana those seem obvious enough so far.
Both Gingrich and Palin so far show political weaknesses that would set up an Obama landslide. I'm not showing those here on the assumption that Republican voters aren't going to vote for someone who stands to lose like Goldwater, if not Landon, McGovern, or Mondale.
Map:
(now modified to show California and its 55 electoral votes, New Mexico with 5, and Colorado with 9)
Obama vs. HuckabeeObama vs. RomneyPerhaps the assumption that Romney would win some states that Huckabee would, or vice-versa because of cultural differences is more specious than it looks. The maps show much the same thing. Most of the blank spaces are either of states that nobody can now claim to be swing states in any scenario with things much the same as they are now. I haven't seen polls for head-to-head matchups in Utah or Oklahoma, either, but nobody can reasonably predict anything other than a solid Republican win in either state.
The only states that remain that could be at all 'interesting' as matchups that aren't already shown are
Colorado, Indiana and New Hampshire.
Assuming that the President wins all stats that he won by a margin of 10% or larger (pink) and loses those that he lost by a margin of 10% or larger (light blue), a predictive map shows for either Romney or Huckabee:
Obama 350
Romney or Huckabee 170
Undetermined 18based on 2008 electoral votes, with the advantage going to the stronger Republican
I see no reason to believe that President Obama would lose New Hampshire and no reason to expect him to win North Dakota. Indiana? I will believe it when I see it, as I was surprised to see the President leading both Romney and Huckabee in North Carolina and NE-02.
That I can make such a map suggests that, at least so far, no state has enough people who would vote for vote for Huckabee but not Romney for President or vice-versa. In view of the weak showing of Gingrich and the apparent meltdown of Sarah Palin as a candidate I am not showing those.
