AZ-PPP: Romney, Huckabee ahead of Obama - Palin, Gingrich not

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%

...

Mitt Romney.................................................... 49%
Barack Obama................................................ 43%

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 48%
Barack Obama................................................ 44%

Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 46%

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 41%

...

"Obama's basic problem in Arizona, in contrast to states in the region like New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado where his party has made serious strides, is that it remains a place where the plurality of voters define themselves as Republicans. That means for Obama to take the state he needs to rack up a huge lead with independents and/or win over a good number of GOP voters.

He doesn't do either of those things to the extent he needs to in match ups against Huckabee and Romney. He gets just 7% of Republicans against Huckabee while losing 13% of Democrats, so even though he does have a 7 point lead with independents that's not enough. And against Romney he loses 16% of Democrats while picking up just 9% of Republicans and tying with independents. His formula for winning Arizona is getting about 15% of the GOP voter and winning independents by 10 and right now he's not there against Huckabee and Romney."

...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0202806.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

[Niemeyerite]

I've just seen this in PPP's blog. I expected something like this... obama can win here, but he'll have a tough job. obama-palin map is becoming more and more hilarious.

[Tender Branson]

Palin is still seen as the most favorable candidate among Republicans (67%), but loses the most Republican support to Obama (14%).

That could be a sign that she's 2nd behind Romney in the GOP primary - but Republicans don't see her as "Presidential material" in the General Election.

[pbrower2a]

I've just seen this in PPP's blog. I expected something like this... obama can win here, but he'll have a tough job. obama-palin map is becoming more and more hilarious.

But -- President Obama doesn't have to win Arizona. Should Arizona be close to an Obama win, then the Republican Party will concern itself with other things such as holding onto their majority in the House and protecting a couple seats in the Senate.

Starting  with the weakest state for Obama that Dubya never won (Minnesota), then the electoral votes for imaginable 'swing states' and one district fall in this order:


Sixteen other states and DC     *                  ---      232                               
Minnesota    *                                               232    242
New Mexico                                                   242    247
Nevada                                                         247    253
New Hampshire                                             253    257
Colorado                                                       257    266
Iowa                                                             266    272      VICTORY LINE!
Virginia                                                          272    285
Ohio                                                              285    303
North Carolina                                              303    318 
NE-02                                                            318    319
Florida                                                           319    348
Indiana                                                         348    359
Missouri                                                        359     369
Georgia                                                         369    385
Arizona                                                          385    396
Montana                                                        396    399
North Dakota                                                 399   402
South Dakota                                                 402   405
South Carolina                                               405   414
TEXAS                                                             414   452   

*President Obama must win every one of the states in this category to have any chance at all

I am showing the range between a Humphrey-like loss and an Eisenhower-style victory. Of course, Hubert Humphrey would have never lost Minnesota. 

President Obama now seems likely to win every state in every category through yellow except perhaps Indiana -- and I make a hedge on Indiana only because I have seen no recent poll of Indiana for Presidential approval or a matchup against any likely Republican nominee.   The last poll of North Carolina, the closest state, suggested that President Obama would win against every Republican nominee, and that is before the campaign season is underway in earnest.  I have seen no poll for Colorado, but in view of the 2010 election it seems safe enough for President Obama.

If President Obama wins Arizona, then he is close  to winning 400 electoral votes anyway; indeed he is then close to winning about 450 because he is also close to winning Texas.  The only way in which he campaigns in Arizona is to aid a challenger to Senator John Kyl.             

[Eraserhead]

Palin is just a disaster but the numbers for the others aren't good either.

[DrScholl]

Arizona will certainly be closer than it was in '08.

[California8429]

Arizona will certainly be closer than it was in '08.

With Palin yes.

Everyone else it seems to be going more right. I think McCain is as close as we'd see it going almost dem for a while (minus a landslide aka Palin)

[pbrower2a]

Arizona will certainly be closer than it was in '08.

Not if Sarah Palin is the nominee. She could lose Arizona by a larger margin against Obama than Obama lost Arizona to McCain!

[Mehmentum]

Arizona will certainly be closer than it was in '08.

With Palin yes.

Everyone else it seems to be going more right. I think McCain is as close as we'd see it going almost dem for a while (minus a landslide aka Palin)

Well, with Gingritch, it's tied.

[California8429]

Arizona will certainly be closer than it was in '08.

With Palin yes.

Everyone else it seems to be going more right. I think McCain is as close as we'd see it going almost dem for a while (minus a landslide aka Palin)

Well, with Gingritch, it's tied.

Yes, but Gingrich can move up in debates. Palin on the other hand quit as Governor because it was too hard to balance the media and Governing and we all know how she does on camera and with questions, she has no where to go but down from here, the only way it could be close for her is if Obama plunges faster than her...in which case we'd see a Ross perrot type jumping in the race.

[DrScholl]

With Palin yes.

Everyone else it seems to be going more right. I think McCain is as close as we'd see it going almost dem for a while (minus a landslide aka Palin)

The numbers will be closer regardless of who the nominee is, it's just that Palin would be more liable to actually lose.

[phk]

If Obama's victory of +7 is smaller, say +3, it could be enough to mitigate McCain's home state effect.

[Niemeyerite]

I think we'll see SC presidential numbers today. and probably CA ones, too. I think obama coulb be leading palin in SC, and tied with romney. CA will be more democrat than in 2008 (only seeing feinstein numbers I bet he's leading everyone by high double-digits).

[exopolitician]

I think we'll see SC presidential numbers today. and probably CA ones, too. I think obama coulb be leading palin in SC, and tied with romney. CA will be more democrat than in 2008 (only seeing feinstein numbers I bet he's leading everyone by high double-digits).

Romney will be leading Obama in South Carolina. If he isn't, I give you permission to call me an idiot.

[Verily]

Arizona will certainly be closer than it was in '08.

With Palin yes.

Everyone else it seems to be going more right. I think McCain is as close as we'd see it going almost dem for a while (minus a landslide aka Palin)

Highly unlikely; it was barely more Dem in 2008 than in 2004, after all. McCain had a home-state advantage that showed very clearly. You'd need a Republican winning by at least 2-3 points in 2012 for Arizona to be more Republican than 2008.

[Mehmentum]

I think we'll see SC presidential numbers today. and probably CA ones, too. I think obama coulb be leading palin in SC, and tied with romney. CA will be more democrat than in 2008 (only seeing feinstein numbers I bet he's leading everyone by high double-digits).

Romney will be leading Obama in South Carolina. If he isn't, I give you permission to call me an idiot.

I'll go one step further, Romney will be leading by a large amount.  The only person Obama has any chance of beating in SC is Palin, Huckabee and Gringrich have to much southern appeal to lose it.

[Niemeyerite]

I think we'll see SC presidential numbers today. and probably CA ones, too. I think obama coulb be leading palin in SC, and tied with romney. CA will be more democrat than in 2008 (only seeing feinstein numbers I bet he's leading everyone by high double-digits).

Romney will be leading Obama in South Carolina. If he isn't, I give you permission to call me an idiot.

I'll go one step further, Romney will be leading by a large amount.  The only person Obama has any chance of beating in SC is Palin, Huckabee and Gringrich have to much southern appeal to lose it.

he's leading gingrich and trailing romney. I expected him to be trailing gingrich and only 1-3 points behind romney

[exopolitician]

I think we'll see SC presidential numbers today. and probably CA ones, too. I think obama coulb be leading palin in SC, and tied with romney. CA will be more democrat than in 2008 (only seeing feinstein numbers I bet he's leading everyone by high double-digits).

Romney will be leading Obama in South Carolina. If he isn't, I give you permission to call me an idiot.

I'll go one step further, Romney will be leading by a large amount.  The only person Obama has any chance of beating in SC is Palin, Huckabee and Gringrich have to much southern appeal to lose it.

he's leading gingrich and trailing romney. I expected him to be trailing gingrich and only 1-3 points behind romney

Why, what makes Obama so strong in South Carolina all of a sudden? He didn't win it in 2008 and he sure enough won't in 2012, barring some disastrous GOP Candidate. 

[Associate Justice PiT]

I think we'll see SC presidential numbers today. and probably CA ones, too. I think obama coulb be leading palin in SC, and tied with romney. CA will be more democrat than in 2008 (only seeing feinstein numbers I bet he's leading everyone by high double-digits).

Romney will be leading Obama in South Carolina. If he isn't, I give you permission to call me an idiot.

I'll go one step further, Romney will be leading by a large amount.  The only person Obama has any chance of beating in SC is Palin, Huckabee and Gringrich have to much southern appeal to lose it.

he's leading gingrich and trailing romney. I expected him to be trailing gingrich and only 1-3 points behind romney

Why, what makes Obama so strong in South Carolina all of a sudden? He didn't win it in 2008 and he sure enough won't in 2012, barring some disastrous GOP Candidate. 

     I think the hypothesis was less that Obama would be good for the state & more that Romney would be bad for the state.

[Niemeyerite]

I think we'll see SC presidential numbers today. and probably CA ones, too. I think obama coulb be leading palin in SC, and tied with romney. CA will be more democrat than in 2008 (only seeing feinstein numbers I bet he's leading everyone by high double-digits).

Romney will be leading Obama in South Carolina. If he isn't, I give you permission to call me an idiot.

I'll go one step further, Romney will be leading by a large amount.  The only person Obama has any chance of beating in SC is Palin, Huckabee and Gringrich have to much southern appeal to lose it.

he's leading gingrich and trailing romney. I expected him to be trailing gingrich and only 1-3 points behind romney

Why, what makes Obama so strong in South Carolina all of a sudden? He didn't win it in 2008 and he sure enough won't in 2012, barring some disastrous GOP Candidate. 

     I think the hypothesis was less that Obama would be good for the state & more that Romney would be bad for the state.

Yes, exactly that.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

A key thing to remember is that the people most likely to not like Romney are most likely to be ones to want Obama gone the most. So that mitigates a large amount of his problems among those people in the general. He will need a good ole southern fried conservative as a Veep pick though.

[Sbane]

I think Romney's Mormonism could be a problem for him in the South and places like Missouri. It might dampen turnout.

[tmthforu94]

I think Romney's Mormonism could be a problem for him in the South and places like Missouri. It might dampen turnout.

I don't think that should be a problem, considering Romney is outperforming southerners such as Huckabee and Gingrich in the South, as well as evangelicals like Demint and Palin. If Romney loses the South, everyone would have lost the South as well.