what would a county map of the us look like

[RI]

I've made a county map for the non-black vote before (though I don't think I posted it). Making one of just the white vote would be quite difficult, but not impossible. You'd need to know the turnout rate among hispanics and other minorities as compared to population or VAP.

[RI]

Here is my projection of the white vote by county for the state of California based on ACS estimates weighted to exit polling for the 2008 presidential election.

EDIT: This one failed. See below for my second try.

[RI]

Some of those results look... unlikely.

Which ones in particular?

[RI]

california map looks accurate. But I think Obama would have won the white vote in Contra Costa and LA Counties.

According to my projection, Contra Costa was very close (50-47) and Los Angeles was not as close (54-44), which makes sense with the way California votes for referenda.

[RI]

I ran the numbers again, and the map I made corresponds to a 55-43 McCain victory, which is not what the exit polls tell us. Obama supposedly won the white vote 52-46 in CA. I'm going to rework my formula.

[RI]

Alright, here is my second try. The percentages all work out this time between county and state levels.



I do find it slightly odd that Obama's percentage actually increases in a couple counties when it's just the white vote, though.

[RI]

Yeah, now Nevada and perhaps Imperial look mildly suspicious. Though possible.

Both were very close, I must point out. They are 51-49 and 52-48, respectively. Plus, Nevada's voting population was over 90% white.

[RI]

Using the same procedure, here is Washington:

[RI]

Can you do Colorado please?

My projection for Colorado:

[RI]

I know both of these will be extremely depressing, but can someone please do Louisiana and Alabama? I'm not asking for Mississippi because I pretty much know what it will look like, but LA and AL have a bit more regional variation.

I can already tell you what it would look like. The black belt and the area just south of it are >90% Republican. The state gets a bit less Republican as you got northward. I can upload my almost complete non-black vote map as to give you an idea. It's just missing a couple rather boring states:

[RI]

The map certainly has its flaws because of the lack of data that is available. Only statewide data is available from exit polls. For the map, I didn't have any real way of systematically modifying the formula between counties within a state that wasn't purely subjective.