what would a county map of the us look like

[freepcrusher]

based on the white vote? If that was the case, I'm guessing the dem strongholds would be in the Pacific NW (including northern California), Scandanavian areas of the midwest, as well as everything north of PA.

[RI]

I've made a county map for the non-black vote before (though I don't think I posted it). Making one of just the white vote would be quite difficult, but not impossible. You'd need to know the turnout rate among hispanics and other minorities as compared to population or VAP.

[RI]

Here is my projection of the white vote by county for the state of California based on ACS estimates weighted to exit polling for the 2008 presidential election.

EDIT: This one failed. See below for my second try.

[Verily]

Some of those results look... unlikely.

[freepcrusher]

california map looks accurate. But I think Obama would have won the white vote in Contra Costa and LA Counties.

[RI]

Some of those results look... unlikely.

Which ones in particular?

[RI]

california map looks accurate. But I think Obama would have won the white vote in Contra Costa and LA Counties.

According to my projection, Contra Costa was very close (50-47) and Los Angeles was not as close (54-44), which makes sense with the way California votes for referenda.

[Sbane]

Some of those results look... unlikely.

Which ones in particular?

Contra Costa, Los Angeles and Santa Barbara imo.

[RI]

I ran the numbers again, and the map I made corresponds to a 55-43 McCain victory, which is not what the exit polls tell us. Obama supposedly won the white vote 52-46 in CA. I'm going to rework my formula.

[minionofmidas]

Doubt there are that many non-White voters in Mono, either.

[RI]

Alright, here is my second try. The percentages all work out this time between county and state levels.



I do find it slightly odd that Obama's percentage actually increases in a couple counties when it's just the white vote, though.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, now Nevada and perhaps Imperial look mildly suspicious. Though possible.

[RI]

Yeah, now Nevada and perhaps Imperial look mildly suspicious. Though possible.

Both were very close, I must point out. They are 51-49 and 52-48, respectively. Plus, Nevada's voting population was over 90% white.

[Sbane]

Nevada is as expected. Imperial...who knows? It's only about 18% non hispanic white.

[RI]

Using the same procedure, here is Washington:

[Stranger in a strange land]

Alright, here is my second try. The percentages all work out this time between county and state levels.



I do find it slightly odd that Obama's percentage actually increases in a couple counties when it's just the white vote, though.

I would guess Asians in NorCal, especially the Bay Area, are probably more Republican than whites.

[To be is the answer to all penus]

Can you do Colorado please?

[nclib]

For North Carolina, Obama's best white (or non-black) numbers, (assuming 96% black for Obama) are:

Orange (Chapel Hill)
Durham (Durham)
Buncombe (Asheville)
Jackson (in mountains, contains West Carolina U.)
Watauga (Boone)

Those are the only ones in NC to likely be 50% for Obama.

These would be Obama's worst:

Greene
Bertie
Martin
Jones
Tyrrell

All are in eastern NC and all are quite rural except Greene, which I've heard has a prison.

[freepcrusher]

Obama may have won Mecklenburg County. He got 61 percent there, so I'm guessing he got in the high 40s low 50s in the white vote.

[nclib]

My calculations placed it about 47-49, so perhaps.

[RI]

Can you do Colorado please?

My projection for Colorado:

[freepcrusher]

most of the maps are going to look similar to the actual election maps. The places where it gets interesting is in polarized states.

The most polarized states (and by that I mean greatest difference between white vote and actual vote) are, in no order,

New Mexico
Texas
Louisiana
Alabama
Mississippi
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina
Virginia
Maryland

[Stranger in a strange land]

I know both of these will be extremely depressing, but can someone please do Louisiana and Alabama? I'm not asking for Mississippi because I pretty much know what it will look like, but LA and AL have a bit more regional variation.

[RI]

I know both of these will be extremely depressing, but can someone please do Louisiana and Alabama? I'm not asking for Mississippi because I pretty much know what it will look like, but LA and AL have a bit more regional variation.

I can already tell you what it would look like. The black belt and the area just south of it are >90% Republican. The state gets a bit less Republican as you got northward. I can upload my almost complete non-black vote map as to give you an idea. It's just missing a couple rather boring states:

[Miles]

most of the maps are going to look similar to the actual election maps. The places where it gets interesting is in polarized states.

The most polarized states (and by that I mean greatest difference between white vote and actual vote) are, in no order,

New Mexico
Texas
Louisiana
Alabama
Mississippi
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina
Virginia
Maryland

I'd also add OR.