Barnsley Central by-election, 3rd of March 2011

[You kip if you want to...]

We have a poll! Somewhat regrettably it is by 'Survation'. Anyway...

Labour 63%, Con 13%, UKIP 9%, LDem 6%, BNP 4%

I'd be in stitches on Thursday night.

[minionofmidas]

Who are "Survation"? And who made up their company name for them?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who are "Survation"? And who made up their company name for them?

They were that outfit that did a poll in Old and Sad showing a neck-and-neck race.

[minionofmidas]

I hope that means they have a systemic bias against Labour and we're still on track to my prediction.

[Leftbehind]

The funny thing about their Old&Sad poll was that they actually got Labour's share spot on, but whether it was through their desperately low sample, they included undecideds aka don't knows as part of the pool, rather than omitting them (or redistributing them based on past vote like some do), so what was actually 42% once don't knows were emitted was reported as 31%. Trouble is, their 30% Lib Dem would've been 40%, overstating the Lib Dem's vote by 8%. So if we were to remove Survation's bias to Lib Dem, the Lib Dem's would actually be on -2%!

As for the poll itself, it's disappointing for Labour. Excepting last year's election, there are only two ocassions where they've not got above 66% - '83 and '05 - two fairly controversial elections for Labour. Although it seems the Right vote's gone down to it's avg. level - right-leaning parties had polled on average around 18% since it's creation, and yet last year's vote was 30%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As for the poll itself, it's disappointing for Labour. Excepting last year's election, there are only two ocassions where they've not got above 66% - '83 and '05 - two fairly controversial elections for Labour. Although it seems the Right vote's gone down to it's avg. level - right-leaning parties had polled on average around 18% since it's creation, and yet last year's vote was 30%.

These boundaries are more like the old Barnsley constituency than pre-2010 versions of Barnsley Central and results in the old Barnsley aren't great for comparison because of the usual issues with limited candidates. Of course the mining industry is gone now so you're never going to get Labour votes as... well... solid as in the past even if they might sometimes be as high.

[Leftbehind]

Ahh, boundary changes. Thanks for the info.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have my uses (not many, but that sort of thing is one of them). Welcome to the forum, btw. Whereabouts you from?

[Leftbehind]

Thanks. Middlesbrough. Although, speaking of boundaries, in the Redcar constituency now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This close fought and very tight by-election is, of course, nearly upon us. This appears to have been the biggest story from the campaign, if you don't count the hilarious Darren Gough thing:

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http://www.barnsley-chronicle.co.uk/news/article/3706/ukip-man-urinated-on-the-street

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour - 64%
Tory - 15%
Liberals - 10%
Others - 11%

[You kip if you want to...]

Counting tonight?

[minionofmidas]

Aye.

[You kip if you want to...]

Just channel surfing and there doesn't appear to be any TV coverage. Most boring by-election ever.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Returning officer reports a low turnout; how shocking. Around 36%, which is actually quite a bit higher than early rumours, but then those are always wrong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just channel surfing and there doesn't appear to be any TV coverage.

Nothing at all? Not even a bit later when there's nowt on anyway?

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Well, not quite. There have been unopposed by-elections in the past!

But, yeah. Everyone knows who's going to win and the circumstances aren't those that would encourage a high turnout.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the bright side, the Grauniad have sent Martin Wainwright to the count (http://twitter.com/mswainwright). First report of note:

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

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[Insula Dei]

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Strikes me as even more amusing.

[Hash]

I suppose Labour below two-thirds of the votes could be counted as a disappointing showing?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose Labour below two-thirds of the votes could be counted as a disappointing showing?

Not really; even without considering the circumstances, Labour were a long way from that in 2005 on these boundaries.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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[You kip if you want to...]

Tim Farron losing it on BBC News: "North Korea's marginal compared to Barnsley." No need to act like a loser too.

Then he starts banging on about how FPTP is why turn out is low beause Barnsley's so safe. As if it'd be a marginal under AV... Maybe people didn't turn out because of the lack of trust in politics. Broken promises and all that.

[You kip if you want to...]

Farron: "Labour is now acting like Trots." HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Oh dear

He also said they spent 13 years acting like Tories, but that's really a pot-kettle situation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tim Farron losing it on BBC News

What, again? You know, he must have a great appeal one-on-one or something (else how do we explain his electoral record?) but his party needs to realise that he doesn't come across well on the gogglebox.