Will D.C. Ever Go Republican?

[America™]

What scenario would have to happen within the next 3-4 elections for a Republican candidate to win D.C.?

[Person Man]

Probably something so traumatic that there will be no "D.C." and no "Republican Party" for it to go for.

[albaleman]

The Democratic party collapses and doesn't run a candidate. Even with that, the Green party candidate would likely take DC.

[Person Man]

Ok. A troll-like answer to a troll-like question. Hey. It could happen.

Or...what about an "Independent" that runs instead?

....perhaps we get a Rubio-esque situation when the Republicans get 50% of the vote and some independent gets 30% and some Green Party person gets 20%?

Let's just put it this way, the Democrats lose D.C., instead of the GOP winning it.

Four Election Cycles, right?

By 2012, there's a double-dip reccesion AND we lose control over Iran. Palin and some other crazy tart run and win 46 states and 57ish percent of the vote.

In 2016, the economy is finally more good than bad and there was a war against Iran over all the alleged and actual evils it embodies and the middle east is more peaceful than anytime after 9/11...and beyond that, Social Security and Health Care Reform are finally defeated. Palin and the other crazy tart win all but Vermont and D.C. with 60% of the vote and the Green party gets like 5%. The Democrats get like 29% but still carry Vermont by like 1000 votes and still get like 65% of the vote in D.C.

During the next four years, the Palins are caught spending thousands of dollars of taxpayers  money on cocaine parties for their family, including their young daughters and there are shocking atrocities carried out by morality police in most states....think  Saudi Arabia.  Beyond that, China finally outpaces the US in GDP and the entire "A Clockwork Organge" thing happens due to far-right economic polices. A liberal democrat who is still in college right now decides  to run, but also does another under the Green party. The vote is split and Palin's tart becomes the next president ala 1992 in 2020. The Democrat gets 59% of the DC vote and the Green gets like 25%.

The center and left become officailly split in 2024 and the Democrats disband thereafter. The Democrats win DC and the Greens win Vermont.

 

2028, Democrats disband, lose D.C.

54.85% Original Tea Party Activist(R-IN)/Defense Lobbyist(R-WV) EVS 514
29.20% Some Aging Pro-Choice Republican(I-FL)/Thirtysomething Trial Attorney(I-PA) EVS 14
14.40% Some Out-of-Work Bureaucrat (G-MD)/Young Metrosexual Celebrity (G-CA)  EVS 10  
Others- 1.60% PV

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Naw.

I could see it not going Democratic, but Republican? No way.

[Mehmentum]

2028, Democrats disband, lose D.C.

54.85% Original Tea Party Activist(R-IN)/Defense Lobbyist(R-WV) EVS 514
29.20% Some Aging Pro-Choice Republican(I-FL)/Thirtysomething Trial Attorney(I-PA) EVS 14
14.40% Some Out-of-Work Bureaucrat (G-MD)/Young Metrosexual Celebrity (G-CA)  EVS 10 
Others- 1.60% PV

In that scenario, I'm moving to Canada.

[Nichlemn]

Would DC have gone Republican at some point if it had EVs from 1789? It was the capital of the Union, yes, but bordered slave states which were very weak for Lincoln.

[freepcrusher]

it most likely would have voted for Eisenhower in 1956.

[Person Man]

Good luck with that. A lot of people would have in the Winter 2004/Spring 2005 period if it were easy enough....but there are problems with that-

 The slightest run in with the county (the typical misdemeanors- bounced $80 grocery check, showing your boobs, DUI, Simple Battery, being caught smoking a joint) could qualify you as too dangerous to be allowed into a Canada. An order of protection from an entire country. You're dangerous. You may be moving to Canada because 9/11 changed everything but it also changed your ability to get out from everything changing. Then again, if you aren't a felon, you will probably be fine, but if you have even been arrested or even been written up before, you should talk to an attorney before packing your bags.

You will have to restart your career. Unless you are famous or have been doing what you have been doing for like 10 years or got straight "A" in college, you will probably have to bus tables and go back to school because accredidations only transfer in the best of circumstances. Make sure you talk to people about that, too.


....and above all, selling all of your stuff and saving up enough money for the move is another thing. You will have to do the entire admission and naturalization thing.

[DS0816]

What scenario would have to happen within the next 3-4 elections for a Republican candidate to win D.C.?

Take a pretty generalized perception of what today's Republican Party and Democratic Party are all about.

Switch them.

Republicans now have the following core states (and areas): District of Columbia, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

Democrats now have the following core states: Alaska, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would require the two parties to basically switch positions on almost every issue. Won't happen in this century.

[Niemeyerite]

2028 republicans nominate an afroamerican candidate like tim scott. democrats nominee is a "new" dixiecrat, like, for example, dan boren. unemployement is at 15%, the president is a moderate democrat. liberals decide to create a new party like bernie sanders did in vermont years ago. greens nominate a strong candidate, because ecology is concerning american people. people are talking about a liberal/green party in the future, but this time they'll run as different parties.

DC results:

Scott 29%
Liberal candidate 29%
Dan Boren 25%
Greenie 15%
Others 2%

[Mr. Taft Republican]

Jack Bauer fails to stop a nuclear attack on DC. Make that several attacks, and it just happens to hit all major democratic districts in DC. Even then, it'll go mayb 50.01% Rep, 49.99% Dem.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It would only happen if there's a realignment or drastic demographic change, neither of which are likely won't happen in the next 3-4 election cycles.

[Person Man]

Jack Bauer fails to stop a nuclear attack on DC. Make that several attacks, and it just happens to hit all major democratic districts in DC. Even then, it'll go mayb 50.01% Rep, 49.99% Dem.

He gets tortured by John McCain instead?

[Mehmentum]

Massive voting machine fraud.

[Mr. Taft Republican]

Jack Bauer fails to stop a nuclear attack on DC. Make that several attacks, and it just happens to hit all major democratic districts in DC. Even then, it'll go mayb 50.01% Rep, 49.99% Dem.

He gets tortured by John McCain instead?

Who knows how to do it better?

[Lief 🗽]

Maybe when the Republicans stop demonizing every single constituency in the city. But you have to realize that there aren't really any parts of the city that are Republican. There are the rich old white people in west DC, but even those neighborhoods voted like 70% Obama IIRC.

[Verily]

Jack Bauer fails to stop a nuclear attack on DC. Make that several attacks, and it just happens to hit all major democratic districts in DC. Even then, it'll go mayb 50.01% Rep, 49.99% Dem.

There are no Republican parts of DC. IIRC the least Democratic precinct in the city voted 69% for Obama (i.e., more Democratic than Vermont).

[Person Man]

So, even the most Republican part of DC votes almost as Democratic as the natoinal gay population in 2004?

[Miles]

What scenario would have to happen within the next 3-4 elections for a Republican candidate to win D.C.?

Take a pretty generalized perception of what today's Republican Party and Democratic Party are all about.

Switch them.

Republicans now have the following core states (and areas): District of Columbia, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

Democrats now have the following core states: Alaska, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming.

I'd actually expand on that a bit.

Dem Core states:
-DC
-HI
-VT
-RI
-CT
-MD
-DE
-CA

(100 EV)


GOP Core states
-WY
-ID
-UT
-AK
-NE
-KS
-OK
-AL

(43 EV)

[The Economist]

If Republicans ever begin to win African Americans again, on a large scale or at least 55% of them, DC would become competitive. Otherwise, I don't see how it would ever go Republican.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NY is far more democratic than CA. Also, expand the "GOP core" to most of the South excepted TX and the East Coast (or alternatively reduce the dem core to VT, RI, DC and HI).

[Mr. Taft Republican]

Jack Bauer fails to stop a nuclear attack on DC. Make that several attacks, and it just happens to hit all major democratic districts in DC. Even then, it'll go mayb 50.01% Rep, 49.99% Dem.

There are no Republican parts of DC. IIRC the least Democratic precinct in the city voted 69% for Obama (i.e., more Democratic than Vermont).

Adjust for radiation.

[H. Ross Peron]

Well here's a shot. Washington DC's population has actually started growing again and its largest single religious denomination is Islam [1]. So if the Republicans moderate somewhat from the Tea Party-ism and begins winning the Muslim vote [2] again and as US blacks become more middle-class there may be a remote possibility that the Republicans win DC.

[1] This is perhaps a bit unfair as Roman Catholics, Presbyterians, Baptists etc. are counted separately by the estimates while all Muslims are counted together.
[2] Not a crackpot idea actually. The Muslims are a natural Republican constituency much like East Asians-well-off, socially conservative, law-abiding. If not for the increasingly anti-Muslim rhetoric by the party...