TRC Poll - First and Second Preferencing
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  TRC Poll - First and Second Preferencing		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which candidate will recieve your first and second preference? First/Second
#1
Marokai/Tmth		  
#2
Marokai/Oakvale		  
#3
Marokai/Ben		  
#4
Tmth/Marokai		  
#5
Tmth/Oakvale		  
#6
Tmth/Ben		  
#7
Oakvale/Marokai		  
#8
Oakvale/Tmth		  
#9
Oakvale/Ben		  
#10
Ben/Marokai		  
#11
Ben/Tmth		  
#12
Ben/Oakvale		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 40

Author Topic: TRC Poll - First and Second Preferencing  (Read 1421 times)
tmthforu94
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« on: January 17, 2011, 09:58:54 PM »
Tmthforu94 Research & Communications

Poll will run for three days.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2011, 10:01:01 PM »
Ben and Marokai won't both run, so this is kind of misleading.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2011, 10:02:28 PM »
Quote from: Χahar on January 17, 2011, 10:01:01 PM
Ben and Marokai won't both run, so this is kind of misleading.

I debated on that, but ultimately decided to include both since it isn't entirely clear who will win the UDL nomination. And besides, it'll still be interesting to see where Marokai/Ben voters will break to when one of them loses the nomination.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2011, 10:07:41 PM »
Oakvale/UDL candidate
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2011, 10:12:11 PM »
Me/Undecided
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AndrewTX
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2011, 11:44:45 PM »
Tmth/Ben
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The Artist Formerly Known As and Now Again Known As Ogis
agooji
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« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2011, 11:58:36 PM »
This is rather interesting.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2011, 12:27:57 AM »
Tmth/ Oakvale
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #8 on: January 18, 2011, 07:00:39 AM »
Marokai/Oakvale
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2011, 09:29:01 AM »
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2011, 09:31:09 AM »
Joke write-in/Joke write-in
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2011, 04:35:46 PM »
Wow! No Oakvale/Marokai so far...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2011, 04:41:22 PM »

That's particularly depressing.
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The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
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« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2011, 04:53:04 PM »
Tmth/Marokai.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2011, 07:46:17 PM »
It looks like Ben is the best UDL candidate to bring in votes from the center.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2011, 12:00:53 AM »
Quote from: Imperial Speaker Yelnoc on January 19, 2011, 07:46:17 PM
It looks like Ben is the best UDL candidate to bring in votes from the center.

All well and good assuming he's not just eliminated immediately from low first preferences. I admit that would be a problem for any UDL candidate though, I suppose.


Indeed.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2011, 12:25:00 AM »
This is exactly why the Atlasian left has to generally... get over themselves... and realise that in order to win this election we have to be united...
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2011, 12:42:35 AM »
With the current poll results, the election (among voters in this poll) would go as follows:

Round 1:

Tmth: 18 (47%)
Marokai: 10 (26%)
Oakvale: 6 (16%)
Ben: 4 (11%)

Round 2:

Tmth: 20 (53%)
Marokai: 11 (29%)
Oakvale: 7 (18%)

Tmth wins with all 4 candidates or if Marokai is the sole nominee.

Without Marokai

Round 1:

Tmth: 18 (47%)
Oakvale: 14 (37%)
Ben: 6 (16%)

Round 2:

Tmth: 21 (55%)
Oakvale: 15.5 (41%)
Exhausted: 1.5 (4%)

Tmth also wins with Ben as the nominee.

If the UDL cracks the whip (all UDL members vote for their nominee)

Round 1:

Tmth: 18 (47%)
UDL: 14 (37%)
Oakvale: 6 (16%)

Round 2:

Tmth: 20 (53%)
UDL: 18 (47%)

Tmth also wins with a united UDL.

Of course, I wouldn't advise Tmth to get too cocky, given the results of the last election compared to the polling...
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Oakvale
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« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2011, 05:22:17 AM »
Atlasia polling in "Atlasia polling is bad" shocker.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2011, 06:04:53 PM »
Quote from: Marokai Bemused on January 20, 2011, 12:00:53 AM
Quote from: Imperial Speaker Yelnoc on January 19, 2011, 07:46:17 PM
It looks like Ben is the best UDL candidate to bring in votes from the center.

All well and good assuming he's not just eliminated immediately from low first preferences. I admit that would be a problem for any UDL candidate though, I suppose.

Certainly, though I assume if Ben won the nomination the UDL would unite behind him.  While the JCP has more total members, giving Oakvale a paper advantage over his left-wing opponent, the UDL has a larger number of active participants which would, in this scenario, make it a Ben vs. Tmth election.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2011, 11:54:50 PM »
Quote from: Imperial Speaker Yelnoc on January 20, 2011, 06:04:53 PM
Quote from: Marokai Bemused on January 20, 2011, 12:00:53 AM
Quote from: Imperial Speaker Yelnoc on January 19, 2011, 07:46:17 PM
It looks like Ben is the best UDL candidate to bring in votes from the center.

All well and good assuming he's not just eliminated immediately from low first preferences. I admit that would be a problem for any UDL candidate though, I suppose.

Certainly, though I assume if Ben won the nomination the UDL would unite behind him.  While the JCP has more total members, giving Oakvale a paper advantage over his left-wing opponent, the UDL has a larger number of active participants which would, in this scenario, make it a Ben vs. Tmth election.

Tmth isn't going anywhere. Even assuming there's a race between JCP and UDL for second place at this point, Tmth is going to end up in the final round no matter what. No Tmth supporter who says they would second preference Ben matters in the slightest, because he wouldn't see any benefit to him.

Oakvale voters that second preference him instead of me, is a legitimate point, but throughout this race the JCP seems like they keep saying that they will support the UDL candidate, for the most part, for second preferences. (Whether they actually do this or not, of course, remains to be seen.) But I don't think serious left-wing voters would choose Tmth over me unless there were personal reasons involved.

Assuming for the sake of argument that UDL voters unite behind either Ben, or I, which is an impossible assumption to make at this point, I don't think the end result between Ben and I for extra second preferences will be more than a few votes. Which matters and all, but, let's just remember for now, Atlasian polling has a terrible accuracy rating.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #21 on: January 21, 2011, 06:20:32 AM »
I'm late to the party but: Oakvale/Marokai
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