NSW, Australia - State Election 26 March 2011
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  NSW, Australia - State Election 26 March 2011		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: NSW, Australia - State Election 26 March 2011  (Read 19080 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #50 on: March 26, 2011, 02:31:37 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on March 26, 2011, 02:15:22 AM
Excuse my lack of knowlegde about NSW, but what exactly has the NSW Labour done to receive the worst result today since 1904 ?

People have just grown tired, and pretty much the issue is like a parent with a child... the patience has gone completely and utterly.

The should have lost in 2007, and might have had a chance to renew... now they're going to get slaughtered and will required an 'Dr Who-like' regeneration. 
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redcommander
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« Reply #51 on: March 26, 2011, 02:36:57 AM »
Does anyone know of an online stream that works? I went to ABC's website, but their news coverage is only available to Australia.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #52 on: March 26, 2011, 02:38:31 AM »
Quote from: redcommander on March 26, 2011, 02:36:57 AM
Does anyone know of an online stream that works? I went to ABC's website, but their news coverage is only available to Australia.

Hmmmm not sure.
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redcommander
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« Reply #53 on: March 26, 2011, 02:42:55 AM »
Nevermind I found a News 24 stream. http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #54 on: March 26, 2011, 03:24:44 AM »
Sky News just called 49 seats for the Coalition. 8 for Labor so far.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #55 on: March 26, 2011, 03:43:19 AM »
I think the other story is the under-performance of the Greens yet again... if they couldn't win Balmain or Marrickville at this election, I doubt they ever will.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #56 on: March 26, 2011, 03:56:38 AM »
The Greens candidate in Marrickville hasn't held up well to scrutiny in the past week or so. The Greens chronically under-perform, though.

That said, Greens are leading in Balmain, according to Sky, though.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #57 on: March 26, 2011, 03:57:42 AM »
Looking good for Gareth.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #58 on: March 26, 2011, 04:00:22 AM »

I know that area well, and I'm shocked by the size of the swing in Kiama.

Yes, the Green has a slight lead, but a combination of Lib votes exhausting and Lib preferences going to the ALP ahead of the Greens, will probably push Firth ahead.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #59 on: March 26, 2011, 04:56:03 AM »
I'm noticing a fair number of safe Liberal seats where Labor finished behind the Greens. It's an even better result for the Coalition than I was expecting.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #60 on: March 26, 2011, 05:49:15 AM »
It's absolutely mind-boggling...

Some of those swings, 26% in Parramatta, 31% in Riverstone... the Libs have won Smithfield... it's the equivalent the GOP winning South Chicago...
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #61 on: March 26, 2011, 06:43:05 AM »
Where can I find a map of the current result?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #62 on: March 26, 2011, 06:47:16 AM »
Across my old stomping ground in the North Shore of Sydney - in some of the safest Liberal seats in Sydney, the ALP has finished 3rd behind the Greens - Ku-Ring-Gai, Hornsby, Manly, Willoughby, North Shore, Davidson, Wakehurst - as well as Vaucluse in the very wealthy Eastern Suburbs.

Quote from: TheNewTeddy on March 26, 2011, 06:43:05 AM
Where can I find a map of the current result?

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-election-2011/interactive-map
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #63 on: March 26, 2011, 08:18:54 AM »
« Edited: March 26, 2011, 08:31:42 AM by Smid »
Quote from: TheNewTeddy on March 26, 2011, 06:43:05 AM
Where can I find a map of the current result?

In the gallery... and I'm about to post them here. All based on Antony Green's figures on the ABC website.

I have substituted the 2PP results for Lake Macquarie and Newcastle.

Feel free to use my maps on your ridingbyriding.com website (including the ones in the earlier pages of the thread).
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #64 on: March 26, 2011, 08:20:55 AM »
Sydney Metropolitan Area - 2CP

Some of the results are still up in the air... Toongabbie, Balmain, Marrickville, East Hills, just to name a few, but these are the results based on the ABC calculator's estimation as at 10pm tonight. I'll upload maps of the final results after the declaration of the polls.

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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #65 on: March 26, 2011, 08:22:25 AM »
2CP in Rural and Regional NSW
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #66 on: March 26, 2011, 08:23:25 AM »
2CP in the Central Coast Region
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #67 on: March 26, 2011, 08:24:35 AM »
2CP in the Illawarra Region
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #68 on: March 26, 2011, 08:25:22 AM »
2CP Swing in the Sydney Metropolitan Area
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #69 on: March 26, 2011, 08:27:17 AM »
2CP Swing in Rural and Regional NSW
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #70 on: March 26, 2011, 08:29:16 AM »
2CP Swing in the Central Coast Region
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #71 on: March 26, 2011, 08:29:58 AM »
2CP Swing in the Illawarra Region
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #72 on: March 26, 2011, 08:34:09 AM »
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2011/03/26/3174675.htm

...such wasted talent.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #73 on: March 26, 2011, 08:45:39 AM »
Yeah, they're going to take a while to recover from this. Not quite as bad as I was expecting though.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #74 on: March 26, 2011, 09:00:51 AM »
Sadly, my last-minute seat prediction of 19-22 seats was actually pretty much on the money... (I chose to not believe the polls... I should have when it came to the vote) wasn't quite expecting the under-performance of the Greens in Marickville and that mixed with the slight over-performance of the Libs in Balmain leading to the three-way contest.

A friend of mine who lives in Balmain called me and said he heard someone say "I just voted Liberal for the first time in my life, I need a shower I feel so dirty... hopefully the ALP gets its act together so I never have to again"

While there is clearly an endorsement of O'Farrell  -  they need to respect and acknowledge that there is NO REASON besides protest voting that caused many of those seats to flip on such exaggerated swings. So O'Farrell needs to make sure he delivers...

My thinking would be, prepare for at least two terms....

1st term, re-build party structure and recruit good people to both sure up their weakened existing seats, as well as target seats they should NEVER have lost. Try to reduce the majority to under 30 (there are enough seats for them to do that).

2 term - hopefully there will be significant gains, this term is about establishing the agenda for re-election. Own Labor's successes, completely and utterly own the mistakes made in the past.
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