How would the retiring House Dems have done in 2010?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

There were a number of Democrats in the House who retired before the elections in 2010. How do you think the ones listed would have done?

AR - 01: Marion Berry retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 52%-44%.
AR - 02: Vic Snyder retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 58% - 38%.
IN - 08: Brad Ellsworth runs for Senate. 2010 result: Republican wins 58% - 37%.
KS - 03: Dennis Moore retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 58% - 38%.
LA - 03: Charlie Melancon runs for Senate. 2010 result: Republican wins 64% - 36%.
MI - 01: Bart Stupak retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 52% - 41%.
NH - 02: Paul Hodes runs for Senate. 2010 result: Republican wins 48% - 47%.
PA - 07: Joe Sestak runs for Senate. 2010 result: Republican wins 55% - 44%.
TN - 06: Bart Gordon retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 67% - 29%.
TN - 08: John Tanner retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 59% - 39%.
WA - 03: Brian Baird retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 53% - 47%.
WI - 07: David Obey retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 52% - 45%.

[bgwah]

Baird would have won.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As would've Berry, Stupak, Hodes, Sestak and Obey.

[Niemeyerite]

As would've Berry, Stupak, Hodes, Sestak and Obey.

this, but i'm not sure if hodes would have won... and IMO, tanner and ellsworth would have won, too.

[krazen1211]

As would've Berry, Stupak, Hodes, Sestak and Obey.

this, but i'm not sure if hodes would have won... and IMO, tanner and ellsworth would have won, too.

Ellsworth lost his own district in the Senate race.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Assuming that the Republicans nominated the same candidates regardless...

AR - 01: Marion Berry retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 52%-44%. - Lost due to the Dem collapse in Arkansas.
AR - 02: Vic Snyder retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 58% - 38%. - See above, plus Snyder was very liberal.
IN - 08: Brad Ellsworth runs for Senate. 2010 result: Republican wins 58% - 37%. - Maybe win, maybe lose; Bucshon was a weak candidate, but this part of the country swung hard to the Republicans.
KS - 03: Dennis Moore retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 58% - 38%. - Lost.
LA - 03: Charlie Melancon runs for Senate. 2010 result: Republican wins 64% - 36%. Lost.
MI - 01: Bart Stupak retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 52% - 41%. Lost.
NH - 02: Paul Hodes runs for Senate. 2010 result: Republican wins 48% - 47%. Maybe win, maybe lose; NH swung hard as well, but Bass was a weak candidate.
PA - 07: Joe Sestak runs for Senate. 2010 result: Republican wins 55% - 44%. Maybe win, maybe lose. Plenty of '06ers lost despite having mediocre opponents, and Meehan was not a mediocre opponent.
TN - 06: Bart Gordon retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 67% - 29%.- Lose, Tennessee is done with the Democratic Party outside of Memphis and Nashville.
TN - 08: John Tanner retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 59% - 39%. - Lose, see above.
WA - 03: Brian Baird retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 53% - 47%. - Win, Baird would probably have held on narrowly.
WI - 07: David Obey retired. 2010 result: Republican wins 52% - 45%. - Maybe win, maybe lose; old-timers dropped like flies, and Duffy was a pretty good candidate.

So... Baird is the only one I would definitely say could have held on. There was a reason all these long-time Reps retired, really, and it wasn't to "spend more time with family".

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

For Sestak, part of it depends who the Dem nominee for Senate was. Let's imagine Sestak decided to run for re-election and Specter easily won the Dem nomination. Toomey most likely would've crushed Specter, and Meehan might have done even better due to Toomey's expanded coattails.

[tmthforu94]

Ellsworth would have won, though it would have been fairly close, simply due to the swing of things. Bucshon was a decent fundrasier, but a horrible candidate, and not very motivational. I'd say less than 10% of people in this district know who our Congressman is.

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak likely would have won because him being in the race would have almost definitely kept Meehan out of the race.

[Torie]

Ellsworth would have won, though it would have been fairly close, simply due to the swing of things. Bucshon was a decent fundrasier, but a horrible candidate, and not very motivational. I'd say less than 10% of people in this district know who our Congressman is.

It strikes me as passing strange that a GOP candidate who was "horrible" could win an open seat that is only lean GOP by a 21% margin, even with a wave. Was the Dem candidate a pedophile or something?

[Miles]

If they ran...

AR - 01: Marion Berry wins. Lean D
AR - 02: Vic Snyder loses. Likely R
IN - 08: Brad Ellsworth loses. Lean R
KS - 03: Dennis Moore loses. Likely R
LA - 03: Charlie Melancon loses. Likely R
MI - 01: Bart Stupak wins. Slight D
NH - 02: Paul Hodes wins. Slight D
PA - 07: Joe Sestak wins. Lean D
TN - 06: Bart Gordon wins. Likely D
TN - 08: John Tanner wins. Safe D
WA - 03: Brian Baird wins. Likely D.
WI - 07: David Obey loses. Slight R

[minionofmidas]

As would've Berry, Stupak, Hodes, Sestak and Obey.

Strike Berry. That would probably have gone similar to Rick Boucher. Hodes is iffy too. Sestak is hard to get a grip on - I could see several ways that would have played out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As would've Berry, Stupak, Hodes, Sestak and Obey.

Strike Berry. That would probably have gone similar to Rick Boucher.

Maybe, but Lee hung on, Crawford wasn't a very good candidate, and his margin wasn't all that impressive either.

Hodes is iffy too.

Well Bass barely retook the seat, was the lady who ran for it a significantly stronger candidate than Hodes?

Sestak is hard to get a grip on - I could see several ways that would have played out.

The main thing is he probably wouldn't have attracted a strong challenger.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, if I had to make a blind guess I'd say Sestak would have won, just like Altmire did.

Lee? D'you mean Ross?

[Niemeyerite]

IMO, Hodes is a worse candidate than Kuster.

[tmthforu94]

Ellsworth would have won, though it would have been fairly close, simply due to the swing of things. Bucshon was a decent fundrasier, but a horrible candidate, and not very motivational. I'd say less than 10% of people in this district know who our Congressman is.

It strikes me as passing strange that a GOP candidate who was "horrible" could win an open seat that is only lean GOP by a 21% margin, even with a wave. Was the Dem candidate a pedophile or something?

He wasn't a people person, and struggled in personal discussions. While he may not have been horrible in the closing days, the first several months of his campaign were completely disastrous. He largely won because his opponent, unlike Ellsworth, was pretty liberal, and had a hard time playing the "I'm a moderate hero" card.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lee? D'you mean Ross?

Yeah. Apparently I was so sleep-deprived at that time I somehow got him confused with the new Senator from Utah.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

AR - 01: Marion Berry. Alternate result: Berry wins 50% - 49%.
AR - 02: Vic Snyder. Alternate result: Griffin wins 55% - 42%.
IN - 08: Brad Ellsworth. Alternate result: Ellsworth wins 52% - 47%.
KS - 03: Dennis Moore. Alternate result: Yoder wins 54% - 44%.
LA - 03: Charlie Melancon. Alternate result: Landry wins 54% - 45%.
MI - 01: Bart Stupak. Alternate result: Benishek wins 49% - 48%.
NH - 02: Paul Hodes. Alternate result: Hodes wins 50% - 48%.
PA - 07: Joe Sestak. Alternate result: Sestak wins 56% - 43%.
TN - 06: Bart Gordon. Alternate result: Black wins 59% - 38%.
TN - 08: John Tanner. Alternate result: Fincher wins 53% - 45%.
WA - 03: Brian Baird. Alternate result: Baird wins 52% - 46%.
WI - 07: David Obey. Alternate result: Obey wins 51% - 47%.
   

[Nichlemn]

TN - 06: Bart Gordon wins. Likely D
TN - 08: John Tanner wins. Safe D[/color]

Well, considering that Lincoln Davis got crushed by 20 points and the two open seats went strongly GOP, this strikes me as unlikely. Were Gordon and Tanner really that capable?

[DrScholl]

Gordon and Tanner had years of seniority and seemed to have personal popularity, of course that's not a guarantee of anything, but it certainly helps. Opposition can shape up differently with incumbents, so it's possible Republicans would not have paid much attention to those if they weren't open.

[Miles]

As would've Berry, Stupak, Hodes, Sestak and Obey.

Strike Berry. That would probably have gone similar to Rick Boucher. Hodes is iffy too. Sestak is hard to get a grip on - I could see several ways that would have played out.

Berry is popular on the personal level though. Crawford only won by 8 points. Boucher had an R+11 district; Berry is a bit better at R+8.

[Miles]

TN - 06: Bart Gordon wins. Likely D
TN - 08: John Tanner wins. Safe D[/color]

Well, considering that Lincoln Davis got crushed by 20 points and the two open seats went strongly GOP, this strikes me as unlikely. Were Gordon and Tanner really that capable?

Gordon and Tanner had years of seniority and seemed to have personal popularity, of course that's not a guarantee of anything, but it certainly helps. Opposition can shape up differently with incumbents, so it's possible Republicans would not have paid much attention to those if they weren't open.

Yep, Tanner and Gordon were more popular and more respected than Lincoln Davis.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

IMO, Hodes is a worse candidate than Kuster.

That's an understatement. In late September, Hodes's favorables were at 29%.

There's a reason he lost an open seat race by twenty-three points. Lord.

[Nichlemn]

TN - 06: Bart Gordon wins. Likely D
TN - 08: John Tanner wins. Safe D[/color]

Well, considering that Lincoln Davis got crushed by 20 points and the two open seats went strongly GOP, this strikes me as unlikely. Were Gordon and Tanner really that capable?

Gordon and Tanner had years of seniority and seemed to have personal popularity, of course that's not a guarantee of anything, but it certainly helps. Opposition can shape up differently with incumbents, so it's possible Republicans would not have paid much attention to those if they weren't open.

Yep, Tanner and Gordon were more popular and more respected than Lincoln Davis.

To the extent of making up a 20 point deficit?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Looking at all the other races in NH was Bass just a really bad candidate or was Kuster a very good candidate? Or some combination of both?