May - January 2010/11 - Britain's progressive alliance?

[You kip if you want to...]

This is so unrealistic, but whatever. It's more of a discussion.

Scenario
May 6-11, 2010: The Conservatives refuse to offer the Liberal Democrats any deal on electoral reform or Lords reform and coalition talks are broken off on May 11th. After Brown had announced his September resignation on the 10th, Labour come back to the table with the Liberals on May 12th and offer the Liberals a referendum on Proportional Representation. Clegg's Liberals agree to a Coalition deal with Labour, finalised on the 13th. Caroline Lucas is offered Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, but declines and agrees to Supply-and-Demand. Sylvia Hermon takes the post of Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. The SNP take the Scotland post and Plaid take Wales. The SDLP and the Alliance Party agree to supply-and-demand.

May 16th, 2010: Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sylvia Hermon form a new government. Who gets what offices?

Governing coalition (Labour, Liberals Democrats, SNP, Plaid Cymru, 1 Independant): 325
Opposition which supports the government (Greens, SDLP, Alliance): 5
Opposition (Conservatives, DUP): 314

Government majority over opposition of 6
Government "confidence" majority over opposition of 16

David Cameron: "This government does not have any legitimacy whatsoever. This is a government of losers and my party is distressed as to what this will mean for the nation's finances and therefore, you and your family. The Liberal Democrats and the Nationalists have no right to act as Labour's life support machine. Gordon Brown is still an unelected Prime Minister leading us into dangerous times. As long as I am Leader of the Conservative Party and the Opposition, I will make it my mission to end Labour's tirade."
Liam Fox (on an overheard mic): "David should be ashamed that we couldn't get this government out. If we're still here in 6 months, i'm guessing someone's going to shove him out the door."
Gordon Brown: "We are an alliance formed to enhance the nation's economic progress. We are a progressive alliance."
Nick Clegg: "The Liberal Democrats had to make a choice. We chose to side with a promise of economic growth and not the promise of a savaged economy."

May 18-25, 2010: David Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham, Harriet Harman and Diane Abbott announce that they will run for the Leadership of the Labour Party.



Discuss the events that would follow between then and now, if this had happened. Also, what would the polls be showing today? (My guess, 50 23 15 or something)

[MAINEiac4434]

Interesting. I wish I knew more about British politics so I could contribute.

Why would Labour have a leadership election if it's current leader (Gordon Brown) didn't resign after an electoral defeat? Whatever. Anyway, it would be awesome for Britain to have a young progressive like Milliband as PM and a young liberal like Clegg as Deputy PM.

[You kip if you want to...]

Why would Labour have a leadership election if it's current leader (Gordon Brown) didn't resign after an electoral defeat? Whatever.

Ah, well, during the Tory-Liberal negotiations, he announced (on the 10th, as in real life) that he'd resign in the Autumn should his party still be in government and asked the Labour executive to start a leadership contest for a new leader. He did this because Clegg had told him, in private, that he couldn't govern with Labour if he was the Prime Minister (because Brown was so unpopular). It turned out that the Liberals and the Tories came to their final Coalition agreement the next day anyway.

My scenario assumes that the talks collapse the day after Brown announces his resignation and the Liberals are okay with Brown resigning, to be replaced with whoever won the leadership contest. I think if this had happened, it'd just be seen as a Coalition of the Damned and I think Cameron would do a lot of Stephen Harper-style "Coalition fear mongering".

[tpfkaw]

The Lib Dems had preannounced that they would try to form a coalition with the party that had the highest number of seats, right?  I bet that their support might fall to the single digits.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Lib Dems had preannounced that they would try to form a coalition with the party that had the highest number of seats, right?  I bet that their support might fall to the single digits.

They said they'd negotiate with anyone, but they'd go to the biggest party first. Whether or not they fall into single digits would depend on what portion of the LD 2010 vote was from the left and what proportion was on the right. As we've seen, the left support has gone elsewhere and they are at 8-10%. If we can assume that this 8-10% would've gone elsewhere due to a Labour coalition, then they would've fallen from 23% to about 13-15%.

[tpfkaw]

A lot of the LD's decline has been among right-wing voters moving to the Tories simply because the new unpopularity of the LDs makes them seem like a "wasted vote."  I'd imagine the same thing would happen with left-wing voters and Labour.

[RodPresident]

A proposal can be a agreement to leader choice be from caucus-only in Labour, with name elected going to be immediately PM and ratified by party only in September. A agreement can be a coalition for 1 year and half, with AV+ referendum, and election in November 2011, based on economics. In coalition, Clegg can get his Lord President of Council-portfolio, while Cable is Chancellor of Exchequer.

[MAINEiac4434]

Why would Labour have a leadership election if it's current leader (Gordon Brown) didn't resign after an electoral defeat? Whatever.

Ah, well, during the Tory-Liberal negotiations, he announced (on the 10th, as in real life) that he'd resign in the Autumn should his party still be in government and asked the Labour executive to start a leadership contest for a new leader. He did this because Clegg had told him, in private, that he couldn't govern with Labour if he was the Prime Minister (because Brown was so unpopular). It turned out that the Liberals and the Tories came to their final Coalition agreement the next day anyway.

My scenario assumes that the talks collapse the day after Brown announces his resignation and the Liberals are okay with Brown resigning, to be replaced with whoever won the leadership contest. I think if this had happened, it'd just be seen as a Coalition of the Damned and I think Cameron would do a lot of Stephen Harper-style "Coalition fear mongering".

Aah, right. Forgive me, the election was a year ago and I was only vaguely interested anyway.

[Leftbehind]

A lot of the LD's decline has been among right-wing voters moving to the Tories simply because the new unpopularity of the LDs makes them seem like a "wasted vote."  I'd imagine the same thing would happen with left-wing voters and Labour.

Actually, regular YG crossbreaks show that no more than 3% of 2010 Lib Dems have gone Tory.