UK local by-elections 2011

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Two local by-elections on 21st July:

GLYDER, Gwynedd; caused by the death of a Plaid councillor.  This ward is basically western Bangor and runs south-west from the Coleg Menai campus up the hill to Friars School; it also includes the mainland end of Telford's Menai Bridge.  Al will probably know more about the area.  In 2008 Plaid were only opposed by the Lib Dems and won 64.4-35.6; the 2004 result saw Labour standing as well, the result being PC 48.9 Lab 27.2 LD 23.8.  This time there is a full set of candidates from the four main parties.  Plaid must win this by-election to preserve their overall majority on Gwynedd council.

REMENHAM, WARGRAVE AND RUSCOMBE, Wokingham, Berkshire; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who now sits on the neighbouring council of Windsor and Maidenhead.  This is a rural ward at the northern end of Wokingham district on the Berkshire (eastern, here) side of the River Thames; Remenham and Remenham Hill lie at the northern end of the ward east of Henley-on-Thames, Ruscombe at the southern end is a suburb of Twyford on the Great Western Main Line, while Wargrave lies between them on the Thames and has a railway station on the Henley Branch.  This is a very safe Conservative ward which last voted in 2010 and split C 65.3 LD 28.2 Lab 6.5; the Tories polled more than 73% at the 2008 and 2006 elections.  Candidates are the three main parties plus UKIP and the Greens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Caernarfon-Bangor bus route goes through Glyder ward so I know it quite well as I now travel through it nearly every day. Mixture of different residential areas, all of which are quite pleasant in a very North Wales way (houses are generally small but well built; white walls and bluish or greenish slate roofing) and one of the more middle class of the Bangor city wards, but then that's not saying a great deal. A reasonable number of people in socially rented housing, but it doesn't have the large estates that you have elsewhere in Bangor (or Caernarfon, for that matter). Employment is dominated by the public sector (education and health; it's Bangor). As you expect, the percentage of people in professional occupations is rather high, the percentage in managerial occupations very low. The middle class element in the ward is very much of the Welsh-speaking middle class variety; I think it's the most Welsh-speaking ward in Bangor (or is that Marchog/Maes-G?). Amazing views in places.

Anyway; Glyder is probably the most 'naturally' Plaid ward in Bangor (the 2008 margin in next-door Dewi was much higher, but then Dogan could run as a Communist - or a Tory even - and win that ward by miles) and as such it would be a major shock if it were lost. Still, it's history isn't as strongly Plaid as might be thought (Bangor used to be dominated by independents, and this ward was no exception. Go back to the 60s and I think it usually had Labour councillors - Bangor West did anyway. Not sure of the boundaries) and the deceased incumbent was a popular figure. I presume that the Labour and LibDem candidates will be the usual City Councillors (edit: almost but not quite. See new post). The LibDem percentage will be important in light of their history of solid percentages in the ward and their County Councillors in Hirael (a Local Councillor For Local People) and (two) in Menai.

I'll report if/when I see any posters.

[MaxQue]

Is there is a particular why there always seem to have a by-election in Gwynedd? It is not the first time since May.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there is a particular why there always seem to have a by-election in Gwynedd? It is not the first time since May.

It's a big council (75 members) and as it's a rural area even more of the councillors are elderly than normal. Though two by-elections (one of which is yet to come) have been caused (the first directly, the second indirectly) by the fact that one of the Ffestiniog councillors was sent to prison for trying to murder his wife.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just checked the SoPN for Glyder (yeah, can't sleep). Plaid candidate lives in the ward and is presumably this person (doesn't strike me as being an especially common name). The LibDem candidate also lives in the ward, is a City Councillor and has been around since forever. The Labour candidate lives in a different part of the city (though still on the same side of the railway line as Glyder ward) and was a paper candidate (for Dwyfor Meirionnydd) in the National Assembly election in May. The Tory candidate lives outside the ward but, again, fairly close; Upper Bangor. Same candidate as in the Arllechwedd by-election. Seems that three (and perhaps all four but I know nothing about the Tory) have had something to do with the university in one way or another at some point.

[MaxQue]

And about the Wokingham seat, is that even legal to sit on two borough/district councils (which are the same thing) at the same time? I see for County/Borough, County/District and the combinaisons with Parish councils, but two same-level authorities?

[minionofmidas]

I remember the story about the Llais guy, but what's with the indirectly caused by-election?

[joevsimp]

And about the Wokingham seat, is that even legal to sit on two borough/district councils (which are the same thing) at the same time? I see for County/Borough, County/District and the combinaisons with Parish councils, but two same-level authorities?

you have to live in the area covered by the council you are running for a seat in, but you don't automatically have to resign if you move out of the district, so I suppose there's nothing stopping you, but he'd come under pressure to quit before long ( similar thing happened a few years ago when a labour cllr in Lambeth was selected as the candidate for a parliamentary seat in Bristol and moved there)

[MaxQue]

I remember the story about the Llais guy, but what's with the indirectly caused by-election?

Well, I don't know if that is the thing than Al is thinking about, but, reading about that story, I also saw than the guy elected to replace him resigned at the beginning of July, because of work and family commitment.

For Wokingham, I searched too, and I saw than the Labour candidate is slamming the Conservatives hard because she resigned only once she won the Maidenhead seat, and not before. If she did before, they could have held the election at the same time than the referendum, saving money, acoording to him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I remember the story about the Llais guy, but what's with the indirectly caused by-election?

The resignation of the councillor elected in the by-election triggered by the conviction of the previous councillor. There have also been two by-elections in one of the other Ffestiniog wards as well, but none in the one that includes Llan. Its a little strange given that local politics in Ffestiniog used to be characterised by these really hard old men who'd been around as long as the Moelwyns, but they're all dead now (the deferred election being a consequence of the death of one of the last of them).

[ObserverIE]

Gwynedd, Glyder

PC 39.4 (-25.0)
Lib Dem 36.9 (+1.3)
Lab 12.4 (+12.4)
Con 11.4 (+11.4)

(from BritainVotes)

Wokingham, Remenham, Wargrave and Ruscombe

Con 65.9 (+0.6)
Lib Dem 21.1 (-7.1)
Lab 7.3 (+0.8 )
UKIP 4.3 (+4.3)
Green 1.5 (+1.5)

(from Vote 2007)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, so Madge's personal popularity can still be translated into a significant amount of votes, despite his party label. Which is good news for the LibDems in the area seeking re-election (both on the County Council and for the 'City Council') next year.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

By-elections next week.  Starting with an unusual Tuesday by-election on 26th July:

SNATCHWOOD, Torfaen, Gwent; caused by the death of a People's Voice councillor.  This ward is a northern suburb of Pontypriddool, on the west bank of the river just south of Abersychan.  In 2008 it was won by People's Voice, a group of anti-Labour independents associated with former Independent AM Trish Law; People's Voice defeated Labour here by 372 votes to 282 in a straight fight.  The defeated Labour candidate is standing in the by-election along with candidates from Plaid, the Tories and three Independents.

By-elections on 28th July are in three safe Conservative wards and a LD/Lab marginal:

BEARDWOOD WITH LAMMACK, Blackburrn with Darrrwen, Lancs; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor due to ill-health.  Beardwood and Lammack are outlying north-west suburbs of Blackburrn, just inside the A6119 ring road; the ward also includes the Witton Country Park to the south.  This is a very middle-class area (Lammack in particular is quite well-off) and the Tories proved this by polling 82% in 2008 in a straight fight with Labour; the Tory vote in May was the lowest for some years at 60.3%, to 33.2% for Labour and 6.4% for the Lib Dems who don't stand in this ward consistently.  Candidates for the by-election are just the three main parties.

BUSH HILL PARK, Enfield, North London; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who is moving to Cyprus for family reasons; Enfield has a large Cypriot community.  Served by the station of same name on the Enfield Town branch, 9.75 miles from Liverpool Street, this is part of the safe Labour parliamentary seat of Edmonton but doesn't vote like it; this can be explained by the area's history as a planned estate built on the grounds of the former Bush Hill Park House.  The estate is now a conservation area.  This produces a safe Conservative ward; the 2010 vote shares were C 38.4 Lab 24.8 LD 19.4 Grn 10.5 UKIP 6.9, while the Tories polled 63.4% in a 2009 by-election and their nearest challenger in 2006 was a campaigner to save Chase Farm Hospital.  Candidates for the by-election are C/Lab/LD/Grn/UKIP/BNP/Christian Party/EDP/Ind.

POULTON NORTH, Warrington; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  This is an area of new town development in the north-east of Warrington, just south of the huge M6-M62 junction at Croft.  The deprivation indices show that the ward is quite starkly divided, with the Blackbrook area (the south-west corner of the ward) being one of the most deprived areas in England and the Fearnhead area next it one of the least deprived.  This social division produced a safe Lib Dem ward in 2007 and 2008 (the Lib Dems polled 59.9% in 2008) but Labour gained by 31 votes in 2010 and gained a second seat in May by 238 votes (Lab 46.9 LD 39.2 C 13.9).  Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties plus UKIP.

STANMORE PARK, Harrow, North London; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who is now a cabinet member on Central Bedfordshire council, quite a long way from Harrow.  This ward covers most of the area known as Stanmore, stretching along Church Road and Stanmore Hill to the south of Bentley Priory, where the RAF forces in the Battle of Britain were controlled.  The main peculiarity of the area is an extremely large Jewish population, 27.3% according to the 2001 census; just outside this ward is Stanmore and Canons Park Synagogue which has the largest single Orthodox community in Europe.  While this ward isn't as uniformly middle-class as Bush Hill Park (it does have one quite deprived census area) it is an even safer Conservative area, with the shares of the vote in May being C 58.5 Lab 20.5 LD 13.5 Grn 7.5.  Candidates for the by-election are C/Lab/LD/Grn/UKIP and an Independent who is a former Mayor of Harrow and unsuccessfully sought the Conservative nomination.

[YL]

By-elections next week.  Starting with an unusual Tuesday by-election on 26th July:

SNATCHWOOD, Torfaen, Gwent; caused by the death of a People's Voice councillor.  This ward is a northern suburb of Pontypridd, on the west bank of the river just south of Abersychan.  In 2008 it was won by People's Voice, a group of anti-Labour independents associated with former Independent AM Trish Law; People's Voice defeated Labour here by 372 votes to 282 in a straight fight.  The defeated Labour candidate is standing in the by-election along with candidates from Plaid, the Tories and three Independents.

Deliberate mistake time again?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

By-elections next week.  Starting with an unusual Tuesday by-election on 26th July:

SNATCHWOOD, Torfaen, Gwent; caused by the death of a People's Voice councillor.  This ward is a northern suburb of Pontypridd, on the west bank of the river just south of Abersychan.  In 2008 it was won by People's Voice, a group of anti-Labour independents associated with former Independent AM Trish Law; People's Voice defeated Labour here by 372 votes to 282 in a straight fight.  The defeated Labour candidate is standing in the by-election along with candidates from Plaid, the Tories and three Independents.

Deliberate mistake time again?

Yep

[ObserverIE]

Torfaen, Snatchwood

Lab 47.9 (+4.8 )
Ind 1 (M. Harris) 32.3
Ind 2 (Joy) 8.2
Ind 3 (N. Harris) 7.4
Con 2.4 (+2.4)
PC 1.8 (+1.8 )

[ObserverIE]

Enfield, Bush Hill Park

Con 44.5 (+6.1)
Lab 26.8 (+2.0)
Ind 9.2 (+9.2)
Lib Dem 7.1 (-12.3)
Green 4.0 (-6.5)
UKIP 2.8 (-4.1)
BNP 2.5 (+2.5)
Christian 1.8 (+1.8 )
Eng Dem 1.2 (+1.2)

Warrington, Poulton North

Lib Dem 48.3 (+9.1)
Lab 39.1 (-7.8 )
Con 8.3 (-5.6)
UKIP 4.2 (+4.2)

Blackburn, Beardwood with Lammack

Con 63.8 (+3.5)
Lab 33.3 (+0.1)
Lib Dem 3.0 (-3.4)

Harrow, Stanmore Park

Con 58.1 (-0.4)
Lab 21.2 (+0.7)
Ind 12.4 (+12.4)
Lib Dem 4.1 (-9.4)
Green 2.2 (-5.3)
UKIP 2.0 (+2.0)

[minionofmidas]

Certainly didn't expect an LD hold in Warrington.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There was some bad publicity for the Labour candidate; was on holiday for some of the campaign and the local press found out.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

August is normally a quiet month for by-elections and there is just one on 4th August.

SOUTH PETHERTON, Somerset County Council; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor.  South Petherton is a tiny town in rural Somerset, just of the A303 about ten miles west of Yeovil.  The division includes a hinterland stretching to the villages of Merriott and Hinton St George to the south.  Those villages are in the district ward of Eggwood, which was fairly safe Lib Dem in May, while South Petherton ward itself (which also includes some villages to the west) is a marginal ward won by the Conservatives in May, gaining a seat from the Lib Dems.  This produces a marginal county division, like much of rural Somerset; the 2009 result was a Conservative gain with a majority of 94 (C 43.3 LD 40.3 Ind 9.2 Grn 7.2) while in May the Lib Dems were slightly ahead across the two district wards.  Candidates for the by-election are C/LD/Grn/UKIP; the Conservative candidate is a district councillor for South Petherton and the Lib Dem candidate is the district councillor for Eggwood, while the independent candidate from 2009 now has the Green nomination.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There will be yet another by-election in Gwynedd, btw. Dewi Lewis (who was one of the most senior members of the Plaid group and of the council; he had the Economics and Development - or something like that - seat on the Council Board) has resigned after confessing to stealing £53,000 while he was a sub-postmaster. Given that he represented Penrhyndeudraeth ward, there's a mild amount of irony in the fact that he's likely to become a prisoner fairly soon (ho, ho, ho).

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Given that he represented Penrhyndeudraeth ward, there's a mild amount of irony in the fact that he's likely to become a prisoner fairly soon (ho, ho, ho).

[afleitch]

August is normally a quiet month for by-elections and there is just one on 4th August.

There's a by-election in the City Centre ward in Edinburgh City Council on August 18th. The sitting SNP councillor David Beckett left to take up a position at Harvard.

This will be a very transfer heavy result

2007 by party

SNP 20.3
Conservative 20.1
Lib Dem 19.7
Labour 17.9
Green 16.8
Other 4.4

Tight!

The SNP are favourites to retain their seat, but 'The Trams' issue hovers over the ward like a foul smell. An anti-tram candidate is running as an independent. The Greens are also running.

[joevsimp]

August is normally a quiet month for by-elections and there is just one on 4th August.

SOUTH PETHERTON, Somerset County Council; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor.  South Petherton is a tiny town in rural Somerset, just of the A303 about ten miles west of Yeovil.  The division includes a hinterland stretching to the villages of Merriott and Hinton St George to the south.  Those villages are in the district ward of Eggwood, which was fairly safe Lib Dem in May, while South Petherton ward itself (which also includes some villages to the west) is a marginal ward won by the Conservatives in May, gaining a seat from the Lib Dems.  This produces a marginal county division, like much of rural Somerset; the 2009 result was a Conservative gain with a majority of 94 (C 43.3 LD 40.3 Ind 9.2 Grn 7.2) while in May the Lib Dems were slightly ahead across the two district wards.  Candidates for the by-election are C/LD/Grn/UKIP; the Conservative candidate is a district councillor for South Petherton and the Lib Dem candidate is the district councillor for Eggwood, while the independent candidate from 2009 now has the Green nomination.

apart from the fact that it'll be most likely a tory hold, that sounds like an interesting one

also, wtf is goin on in Gwynedd? I thought it was Ynys Mon that was supposed to be falling apart from the inside

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What would that be... a five way marginal?

also, wtf is goin on in Gwynedd? I thought it was Ynys Mon that was supposed to be falling apart from the inside

No idea; the business with Dewi Lewis came as a massive surprise. Elections next year will be as messy as always.