Next election predictions

[California8429]

Palin and Huckabee don't run.

The nomination is a fight between Gingrich, Romney, and 2 of the following (Thune, Daniels, or Pawlenty). People like Pataki, Cain, and Johnson occassionally steal the spotlight, but it doesn't last into any solid wins.

There will be another economic crash tied to the debt likely when China cuts us off with loans. If it happens before 2012 Obama is defeated as long as republicans do as they promised in Congress 2012 (balanced budgets, repeal obamacare, tax cuts, entitlement reform) if they just act still as the party of No instead of doing something, then it's a tossup. If the crash doesn't happen by November, Obama is likely to be reelected unless he is defeated in the debates hands down (aka Gingrich...Romney possibly could pull it off, as well as Thune or Daniels but this needs to be a slap in the face to Obama).

Republicans barely retake the Senate and maintain the House with roughly the same numbers as 2010 (though they may lose a few seats).

Truly I believe Gingrich will win and pick a young running mate or new face to the national stage such as Thune, Christie, McDonnell, or even Daniels or Rubio.

So let's see how this plays out

[pbrower2a]

Palin and Huckabee don't run.

The nomination is a fight between Gingrich, Romney, and 2 of the following (Thune, Daniels, or Pawlenty). People like Pataki, Cain, and Johnson occassionally steal the spotlight, but it doesn't last into any solid wins.

There will be another economic crash tied to the debt likely when China cuts us off with loans. If it happens before 2012 Obama is defeated as long as republicans do as they promised in Congress 2012 (balanced budgets, repeal obamacare, tax cuts, entitlement reform) if they just act still as the party of No instead of doing something, then it's a tossup. If the crash doesn't happen by November, Obama is likely to be reelected unless he is defeated in the debates hands down (aka Gingrich...Romney possibly could pull it off, as well as Thune or Daniels but this needs to be a slap in the face to Obama).

Republicans barely retake the Senate and maintain the House with roughly the same numbers as 2010 (though they may lose a few seats).

Truly I believe Gingrich will win and pick a young running mate or new face to the national stage such as Thune, Christie, McDonnell, or even Daniels or Rubio.

So let's see how this plays out

It is impossible to balance a budget in the immediate aftermath of a general meltdown of the economy. Preservation of existing tax cuts is about all that the GOP is going to get. The desired tax shifts that put the increased burden on the working poor in order to give breaks for the super-rich is exactly the right way -- to incite violent protests and many strikes.

Asking for the impossible and unpractical is the usual method of extremists, and if the GOP gets the reputation of extremists, then it won't win the Presidency, it will make no gains in the Senate, and it will lose its recent gains in the House.

If China cuts off the US for debt, then America goes into protectionist mode and gets its manufacturing out of mothballs because the end of financing of American debt implies a shut-off of imports as well. If anything, such would create enough jobs to undo any economic meltdown.   

Gingrich would do almost as badly in a national campaign as Sarah Palin, not so much because he is a buffoon -- he is much less that than is Palin -- but instead because he is politically-rusty. He has been out of the political spotlight for more than ten years, and he has no idea of how to start even a statewide campaign. Think of Walter Mondale subbing for the late Paul Wellstone; that's almost what you get.     

[California8429]

Well there's your calls, we'll see who's right.

And I don't recall massive strikes when the Bush tax cuts were inacted to avoid a further economic meltdown...

[Niemeyerite]

Huckabee decides against running, but then sees he'd be the clear frontrunner if he ran and by late october he announces he's running. he wins easily the nomination and then fights hard for the presidency. obama wins by a greater margin than in 2008 (th eeconomy and unpemployement improve). democrats lose 1 seat in the senate and barely retake the house.

if huck doesn't run, palin wins the nomination... and you know what would happen hahaha

[Devilman88]

A women or a non-white person wins the Republican nomination. Republicans net gain about 2-4 seats in the Senate and the House stay about the same.

[Yelnoc]

There will be another economic crash tied to the debt likely when China cuts us off with loans.

This makes no sense.  The United States and China's economies are too deeply intertwined.  More likely the US economy  will continue sluggish growth until 2012.

[Niemeyerite]

A women or a non-white person wins the Republican nomination. Republicans net gain about 2-4 seats in the Senate and the House stay about the same.

translate: Palin or Cain wins the GOP nomination haha

[Devilman88]

A women or a non-white person wins the Republican nomination. Republicans net gain about 2-4 seats in the Senate and the House stay about the same.

translate: Palin or Cain wins the GOP nomination haha

There are other women then Palin in the Republican Party. Also, who is Cain? I was thinking more like Jindal or Rubio...

[Yelnoc]

A women or a non-white person wins the Republican nomination. Republicans net gain about 2-4 seats in the Senate and the House stay about the same.

translate: Palin or Cain wins the GOP nomination haha

There are other women then Palin in the Republican Party. Also, who is Cain? I was thinking more like Jindal or Rubio...

Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfather's Pizza and talk show host out of Atlanta, Georgia.  He either already has or is just about to form an exploratory committee.

[California8429]

There will be another economic crash tied to the debt likely when China cuts us off with loans.

This makes no sense.  The United States and China's economies are too deeply intertwined.  More likely the US economy  will continue sluggish growth until 2012.

I see it likely that China stops financing our debt, I don't actually mean they will cut us off 100% economically, they just will stop investing in a country that shows zero ability to return the money, unless of course they have some scheme that ends up with them practically owning the country. But why would they want to continue dishing out money when their economy is nonstop booming, they already hold a large amount of our debt, and they are really moving to a developed nation that could be dependent on itself for consumers soon. This is a ticking time bomb.

[Niemeyerite]

A women or a non-white person wins the Republican nomination. Republicans net gain about 2-4 seats in the Senate and the House stay about the same.

translate: Palin or Cain wins the GOP nomination haha

There are other women then Palin in the Republican Party. Also, who is Cain? I was thinking more like Jindal or Rubio...

other women? who? KBH can't win aprimary in texas, snowe and collins are too liberal and haley just won a closer than expected election in a southern state. also, fallin ins't that charismatic and I can't see how blackburn or bachmann can win the nomination...

[pbrower2a]

Well there's your calls, we'll see who's right.

And I don't recall massive strikes when the Bush tax cuts were inacted to avoid a further economic meltdown...

If the tax cuts are entirely for upper-income people and they are financed with new taxes that hit the non-rich hard or are in a package that eviscerates the minimum wage, then things can get ugly.

[anvi]

The biggest issue with China is the currency, and that's surely a big enough of an issue, since a prolonged currency war could wreak real global economic havoc.  But China will not cut us off.  For as interested as we are in opening up Chinese markets for ourselves, they're pretty big fans of our consumers too.

[California8429]

Well there's your calls, we'll see who's right.

And I don't recall massive strikes when the Bush tax cuts were inacted to avoid a further economic meltdown...

If the tax cuts are entirely for upper-income people and they are financed with new taxes that hit the non-rich hard or are in a package that eviscerates the minimum wage, then things can get ugly.

When was the platform taxes solely for the richest? It has been for everyone as low as possible in every area. That's what I'm talking about. And only rich tax cuts would never make it through Congress

[feeblepizza]

Palin and Huckabee don't run.

The nomination is a fight between Gingrich, Romney, and 2 of the following (Thune, Daniels, or Pawlenty). People like Pataki, Cain, and Johnson occassionally steal the spotlight, but it doesn't last into any solid wins.

There will be another economic crash tied to the debt likely when China cuts us off with loans. If it happens before 2012 Obama is defeated as long as republicans do as they promised in Congress 2012 (balanced budgets, repeal obamacare, tax cuts, entitlement reform) if they just act still as the party of No instead of doing something, then it's a tossup. If the crash doesn't happen by November, Obama is likely to be reelected unless he is defeated in the debates hands down (aka Gingrich...Romney possibly could pull it off, as well as Thune or Daniels but this needs to be a slap in the face to Obama).

Republicans barely retake the Senate and maintain the House with roughly the same numbers as 2010 (though they may lose a few seats).

Truly I believe Gingrich will win and pick a young running mate or new face to the national stage such as Thune, Christie, McDonnell, or even Daniels or Rubio.

So let's see how this plays out

Agreed, although Thune will not run and Daniels will become the nominee with someone like Thune, McDonnell, or Pawlenty as his VP (Christie would rather die than be anywhere near the White House, and Rubio would be too controversial due to his inexperience).

[California8429]

Rubio is unlikely, though he would be a possible candidate especially since Gingrich is really pushing for Latino support. Though he wouldn't get it and wouldn't be higher on anyone else's list. But people like him would be considered (though you don't want a Palin thing all over again)

[pbrower2a]

Well there's your calls, we'll see who's right.

And I don't recall massive strikes when the Bush tax cuts were inacted to avoid a further economic meltdown...

If the tax cuts are entirely for upper-income people and they are financed with new taxes that hit the non-rich hard or are in a package that eviscerates the minimum wage, then things can get ugly.

When was the platform taxes solely for the richest? It has been for everyone as low as possible in every area. That's what I'm talking about. And only rich tax cuts would never make it through Congress

Situation possible but not certain. I start with the assumption that our super-rich are selfish abusers of whatever power they get over us. I also assume that the GOP will go further to the economic Right until such is stopped by the reality of electoral losses.

[California8429]

Well there's your calls, we'll see who's right.

And I don't recall massive strikes when the Bush tax cuts were inacted to avoid a further economic meltdown...

If the tax cuts are entirely for upper-income people and they are financed with new taxes that hit the non-rich hard or are in a package that eviscerates the minimum wage, then things can get ugly.

When was the platform taxes solely for the richest? It has been for everyone as low as possible in every area. That's what I'm talking about. And only rich tax cuts would never make it through Congress

Situation possible but not certain. I start with the assumption that our super-rich are selfish abusers of whatever power they get over us. I also assume that the GOP will go further to the economic Right until such is stopped by the reality of electoral losses.

and this includes everyone who has worked their way up to wealth throughout an entire lifetime of hard work and commitment no matter the situation?

[Yelnoc]

Well there's your calls, we'll see who's right.

And I don't recall massive strikes when the Bush tax cuts were inacted to avoid a further economic meltdown...

If the tax cuts are entirely for upper-income people and they are financed with new taxes that hit the non-rich hard or are in a package that eviscerates the minimum wage, then things can get ugly.

When was the platform taxes solely for the richest? It has been for everyone as low as possible in every area. That's what I'm talking about. And only rich tax cuts would never make it through Congress

Situation possible but not certain. I start with the assumption that our super-rich are selfish abusers of whatever power they get over us. I also assume that the GOP will go further to the economic Right until such is stopped by the reality of electoral losses.

That's a bit much.  Warren Buffet seems like a nice guy.

[nhmagic]

Palin doesn't run but is kingmaker in the nomination process and endorses Herman Cain.  Cain chooses Rubio as his running mate.  Cain wins the election by through a combination of being a strong conservative, a bad Obama economy and brunting the impact of Obama's black support bringing Cain slightly higher levels of black support than traditionally obtained by republican candidates.  Reps gain 10-11 senate seats including MO, MT, FL, NJ, MI (due to retirement), NE, ND, OH, NM (also due to retirement), VA, and WV.

[Yelnoc]

Palin doesn't run but is kingmaker in the nomination process and endorses Herman Cain.  Cain chooses Rubio as his running mate.  Cain wins the election by through a combination of being a strong conservative, a bad Obama economy and brunting the impact of Obama's black support bringing Cain slightly higher levels of black support than traditionally obtained by republican candidates.  Reps gain 10-11 senate seats including MO, MT, FL, NJ, MI (due to retirement), NE, ND, OH, NM (also due to retirement), VA, and WV.

That's a new one.  Not implausible but, IMO, a bit unlikely.  Are you willing to stand bye it until January 1st 2012?  Because we have a thread for that

[timeitright4]

Still hard to tell who will win.

[exopolitician]

Bold prediction:

Obama/Biden: 285
Romney/Daniels: 253

The economy is still slowly recovering, unemployment is dropping but only slightly. Obama touts his legislative victories over the years and the ability to tackle economic issues and reduce unemployment, even if only slightly.

[Bull Moose Base]

Bold prediction:

Obama/Biden: 285
Romney/Daniels: 253

The economy is still slowly recovering, unemployment is dropping but only slightly. Obama touts his legislative victories over the years and the ability to tackle economic issues and reduce unemployment, even if only slightly.

Not trying to be a smartass or anything but how is this prediction bold?  Or do you mean, making any specific prediction?

[Psychic Octopus]

Sorry, azmagic, I really disagree to the point where I don't see that as possible at all. Herman Cain has never even held office before, or been a general, which is crucial in the modern age. That being said, he would have probably been a good candidate had he won the Senatorial primary back in 2004.