Marriage Amendment In PA

[Jordan Gwendolyn]

One thing that pleasantly surprises me about PA is that there has been no constitutional amendment on the ballot to ban gender neutral marriage, nor has it ever gotten out of the legislature, even though a "Yes" vote would probably carry every county.

I am wondering, how has Pennsylvania avoided this for so long, given the far right wing of the Republican party controls the legislature. I know Eichelberger's been trying to get it on the ballot for a long time...but, do you think 2011 could be the year that the anti-marriage equality folk could get a ballot initiative here in PA, and if so, do you think it could stand a chance of carrying every single county.

[Keystone Phil]

They would want to wait until 2012. Putting it on the ballot in 2011 would boost liberal turnout in what ought to be a very low turnout year.

I don't think it would carry every county. Montco would likely be against it. I think Delaware would be, too. Bucks would be a possibility. Centre is also a slight possibility because of State College. Don't underestimate Philly either. If this is put on the ballot in a Presidential election year, the local Dems would be forced to be against it and groups that would traditionally be in favor of a ban would vote against it because...well...that's what their beloved Democratic sample ballot says.

Eich probably knows it's best to wait, too.

[nclib]

Perhaps on both, though Philly has a chance to vote no. I'm pretty sure NC will have one now, since we are the last Southern state to not have one.

As for other states with a GOP pick-up of a legislative body and no marriage amendment, perhaps Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and New Hampshire will try to pass one. (New York had its Senate flip, but with its House solidly Democratic and liberal, its unlikely)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Or perhaps they are waiting to see what happens with Prop 8. If the Ninth Circuit agrees to overturn it then perhaps everything will be on hold till the Supreme Court clarifies the situation.

[Jordan Gwendolyn]

They would want to wait until 2012. Putting it on the ballot in 2011 would boost liberal turnout in what ought to be a very low turnout year.

I don't think it would carry every county. Montco would likely be against it. I think Delaware would be, too. Bucks would be a possibility. Centre is also a slight possibility because of State College. Don't underestimate Philly either. If this is put on the ballot in a Presidential election year, the local Dems would be forced to be against it and groups that would traditionally be in favor of a ban would vote against it because...well...that's what their beloved Democratic sample ballot says.

Eich probably knows it's best to wait, too.

Nah, Philly would probably vote for a ban. It has a heavy African American population + the NE section would be enough to tip it over.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's my biggest worry here. Dayton wouldn't be able to veto such a ban. Though at the rate things are going we might be able to vote it down.

[Keystone Phil]

They would want to wait until 2012. Putting it on the ballot in 2011 would boost liberal turnout in what ought to be a very low turnout year.

I don't think it would carry every county. Montco would likely be against it. I think Delaware would be, too. Bucks would be a possibility. Centre is also a slight possibility because of State College. Don't underestimate Philly either. If this is put on the ballot in a Presidential election year, the local Dems would be forced to be against it and groups that would traditionally be in favor of a ban would vote against it because...well...that's what their beloved Democratic sample ballot says.

Eich probably knows it's best to wait, too.

Nah, Philly would probably vote for a ban. It has a heavy African American population + the NE section would be enough to tip it over.

Like I said, the Democratic sample ballot is a big deal in a machine town like Philadelphia. The NE would support the ban but I'm not sure if it would be by enough to make Philly a "Pro Ban" county.

Regardless, a ban would win statewide and it makes far more sense electorally to wait until 2012.