Which members are likely to loose their seats due to reapportionment?

[zorkpolitics]

Who are the 12 congressman most likely to have their district disappear when the new maps are drawn in:
LA, MO, IL, IA, MI, OH (2), PA, NY (2), NJ, MA

[freepcrusher]

I think that in CA, they might draw Darrell Issa into some Mexican neighborhoods.

[Mr.Phips]

In Louisiana:  Rep. Landy
In Missouri:  Either Todd Akin or Russ Carnahan
In Illinois:  Bobby Schilling
In Michigan:  Gary Peters
In Ohio:  Betty Sutton and Rep. Johnson
In PA:  Mark Critz
In NY:  Rep. Reed and Gary Ackerman
In NJ:  Rush Holt or Leonard Lance
In MA:  Michael Capuano

[Torie]

I think that in CA, they might draw Darrell Issa into some Mexican neighborhoods.

The geography of the state cannot sink Issa unfortunately. He inhabits one of the most GOP zones in the state, even more GOP than my little coastal gold coast Orange County CD. His CD just has a major military cast to it, as it hugs Camp Pendleton. Marines and their significant others, and friends, and those who service them, just don't vote Dem.

[Lunar]

The geography of the state cannot sink Issa unfortunately. He inhabits one of the most GOP zones in the state, even more GOP than my little coastal gold coast Orange County CD.

Eh, it's only R+10 (same as my home district CA-4 about to return to tomorrow).

There's 3 districts more Republican than Issa's, including the 22nd:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CA-22nd.gif

And another 3 exactly as Republican

[Torie]

The geography of the state cannot sink Issa unfortunately. He inhabits one of the most GOP zones in the state, even more GOP than my little coastal gold coast Orange County CD.

Eh, it's only R+10 (same as my home district CA-4 about to return to tomorrow).

There's 3 districts more Republican than Issa's, including the 22nd:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CA-22nd.gif

And another 3 exactly as Republican

Yes, and I did not mean to suggest that a few other CD's were not a bit more GOP (Kern County is a very special place), but there are just not that many Dems nearby Issa to sic him to boot, and the GOP in any plan is going to get more than a single digit number of seats.  And sicing Issa will not be on the redistricting commission's agenda per se in any event.

[redcommander]

I think that in CA, they might draw Darrell Issa into some Mexican neighborhoods.

The geography of the state cannot sink Issa unfortunately. He inhabits one of the most GOP zones in the state, even more GOP than my little coastal gold coast Orange County CD. His CD just has a major military cast to it, as it hugs Camp Pendleton. Marines and their significant others, and friends, and those who service them, just don't vote Dem.

Why don't you like Issa Torie? He seems like a pretty reasonable Representative considering some of the other members of the California GOP delegation (Calvert, Herger, Lungren, Drier, and Lewis).

[Brittain33]

The geography of the state cannot sink Issa unfortunately. He inhabits one of the most GOP zones in the state, even more GOP than my little coastal gold coast Orange County CD.

Eh, it's only R+10 (same as my home district CA-4 about to return to tomorrow).

There's 3 districts more Republican than Issa's, including the 22nd:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CA-22nd.gif

And another 3 exactly as Republican

Affluent exurban R areas in California swung heavily to Obama, it distorts PVI a bit relative to rural areas that didn't swing. Those people vote every time, too, so when they swing back, they'll outvote any poor neighborhood that wanders into the district.

[Torie]

Issa had an unfortunate nexus to Hezbollah, but in more recent times has gained a reputation as a hyper partisan bomb thrower, the latest iteration of which was his crowing how he was going to investigate the sh*t out of Obama administration if he got to be chairman of his committee if the GOP took over Congress. We shall see. That just isn't my style of doing business.

[fezzyfestoon]

New Jersey should be interesting.  I would assume the districts in South Jersey would grow a little while the ones in the North would likely not see too much change.  Maybe the urban districts would grow a little.  That would probably force Pallone and Holt's districts together in the middle.  Lance's is growing too fast relative to the rest of the state to be destroyed.  Although, who knows what the new districts will look like, anyone could really go except a couple.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

In PA:  Mark Critz

Good riddance......a Murtha clone is no better than the scumball himself.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania is apparently going to be more interesting than just getting rid of Critz. Not sure if the rumored plan is for real though.

[Sam Spade]

Pennsylvania is apparently going to be more interesting than just getting rid of Critz. Not sure if the rumored plan is for real though.

What games are yall gonna try this time.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania is apparently going to be more interesting than just getting rid of Critz. Not sure if the rumored plan is for real though.

What games are yall gonna try this time.

Actually, it seems fair...almost too fair, if that makes sense. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Pennsylvania is apparently going to be more interesting than just getting rid of Critz. Not sure if the rumored plan is for real though.

What games are yall gonna try this time.

Actually, it seems fair...almost too fair, if that makes sense. 

What do you make out of that?

http://www.politicspa.com/politicspa-presents-redistricting-scenarios/19431/

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania is apparently going to be more interesting than just getting rid of Critz. Not sure if the rumored plan is for real though.

What games are yall gonna try this time.

Actually, it seems fair...almost too fair, if that makes sense. 

What do you make out of that?

http://www.politicspa.com/politicspa-presents-redistricting-scenarios/19431/

It's what everyone expects and it might end up that way but it doesn't seem that way. Hate to sound like Sam here but I won't give away details. 

[Mr.Phips]

Pennsylvania is apparently going to be more interesting than just getting rid of Critz. Not sure if the rumored plan is for real though.

Doing more than just getting rid of Critz in PA-12 would risk making a map where Democrats could pick up several more seats.  Republicans are already way overrepresented in the state now.  They have to protect PA-03, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, and PA-11, and making PA-18 or PA-05 too Democratic could give Democrats an opportunity in those seats. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Landry in Louisiana is actually in better shape than most people assume. Given that LA-02 is going to have to snake from New Orleans to Baton Rouge to maintain a majority-black district, that means it will bisect the eastern half of the state. It's not going to be possible to chop up LA-03 and give it to surrounding Reps; if anything, it'll be LA-06 that gets dismantled, since it's fairly centralized and will be giving up some of its population to LA-02 anyway. And it's not like any of the current members have any clout to wave around. The dean of the delegation, Rodney Alexander, has only been around for four terms.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow, Rodney Alexander is now the most senior rep from there? Wow. I remember when he was first elected and when he switched parties.

[HAnnA MArin County]

In Missouri, Todd Akin's district (MO-02) would be the easiest to lose and reapportion. It's a suburban district so all they would have to do is shift some of the western St. Louis suburbs (Kirkwood, Chesterfield, Town & Country) to the neighboring MO-01 (most of St. Louis City and some of the northern burbs) and some of the more northern, exurban communities like St. Charles and St. Peters to MO-09. St. Charles County is a GOP stronghold (most affluent county in the state). If there's any left over, they could push them down into Carnahan's district in MO-03, which consists of most of the southern St. Louis suburbs as well as South St. Louis City.

It'll be interesting to see how many more counties my congressional district (MO-08) gains (we have 28 so far). Not that it matters, because Jo Ann Emerson has this seat until she retires or dies.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania is apparently going to be more interesting than just getting rid of Critz. Not sure if the rumored plan is for real though.

Doing more than just getting rid of Critz in PA-12 would risk making a map where Democrats could pick up several more seats.  Republicans are already way overrepresented in the state now.  They have to protect PA-03, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, and PA-11, and making PA-18 or PA-05 too Democratic could give Democrats an opportunity in those seats. 

Suggesting that the Dems would get PA 5 made your officially made your post laughable.

The rumored plan isn't risky at all. That was my point in following posts.

[Dgov]

In Missouri, Todd Akin's district (MO-02) would be the easiest to lose and reapportion. It's a suburban district so all they would have to do is shift some of the western St. Louis suburbs (Kirkwood, Chesterfield, Town & Country) to the neighboring MO-01 (most of St. Louis City and some of the northern burbs) and some of the more northern, exurban communities like St. Charles and St. Peters to MO-09. St. Charles County is a GOP stronghold (most affluent county in the state). If there's any left over, they could push them down into Carnahan's district in MO-03, which consists of most of the southern St. Louis suburbs as well as South St. Louis City.

It'll be interesting to see how many more counties my congressional district (MO-08) gains (we have 28 so far). Not that it matters, because Jo Ann Emerson has this seat until she retires or dies.

No, the 3rd would be much easier to get rid of.  If you remove some of the outer suburbs from the 1st, it can take the rest of St. Louis Proper.  The 3rd's northern section can go to the current 2nd, and the southern portion can go the current 8th.

More likely however, we'll see a "fair fight" district get made from the 2nd and 3rd district.  While Republican control the state legislature thoroughly, (including over 75% of the State Senate seats), they missed getting 2/3rds of the vote in the state house by like 2 seats, and so cannot override governor Jay Nixon's Veto.  This means incumbent protection, and unless someone is retiring that means at least two incumbents have to be thrown together.  The 2nd and 3rd districts represent the best opportunity for that.

[Torie]

The speculation in the linked article does not make much sense to me. One thing that needs to be clarified is just how erose districts can get, and still be deemed legal. PA law is a bit opaque. If totally unleashed, most decidedly Dem precincts in Western PA can be sucked into the Doyle district. This business of the Doyle district as it picks up needed population shoving the Altmire district around to weaken it is certainly not something that I would do, or need to do. 

[Mr.Phips]

Pennsylvania is apparently going to be more interesting than just getting rid of Critz. Not sure if the rumored plan is for real though.

Doing more than just getting rid of Critz in PA-12 would risk making a map where Democrats could pick up several more seats.  Republicans are already way overrepresented in the state now.  They have to protect PA-03, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, and PA-11, and making PA-18 or PA-05 too Democratic could give Democrats an opportunity in those seats. 

Suggesting that the Dems would get PA 5 made your officially made your post laughable.

The rumored plan isn't risky at all. That was my point in following posts.

Democrats have held PA-05 before.  Its no more laughable than Republicans getting PA-13. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania is apparently going to be more interesting than just getting rid of Critz. Not sure if the rumored plan is for real though.

Doing more than just getting rid of Critz in PA-12 would risk making a map where Democrats could pick up several more seats.  Republicans are already way overrepresented in the state now.  They have to protect PA-03, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, and PA-11, and making PA-18 or PA-05 too Democratic could give Democrats an opportunity in those seats. 

Suggesting that the Dems would get PA 5 made your officially made your post laughable.

The rumored plan isn't risky at all. That was my point in following posts.

I could definitely see PA 13 making a little trek around NW Philly through Lafayette Hill into Lower Merion to protect Jim Gerlach giving parts of the very Republican northwestern portion of the 13th to give Gerlach, Dent, and Fitzpatrick a greater margin of error.  They read my mind on that one.  Although Phil personally, do you really want to give up on a shot at taking the 13th?  I'll say it's an uphill battle, but for a while I was a bit nervous and called it a sleeper in this past election. 

As for PA 7 and 16, well I've said it before.  Does the GOP really want to add territory from the 16th to the 7th and possibly lose both districts anyway in a wave?  I could see that happening.  Obama almost won the 16th as is and Joe Pitts is pretty conservative even for that district. 

One thing we agree on- Call a bipartisan truce and have a commission like in NJ.