http://dss.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/chauvet_hamilton_may_05.pdfhttp://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2006/08/the_2001_recess.htmlThe four series cited by the NBER in their decision about the recent business-cycle peak were revised as follows:
Thus, the revised data show that the latest peak among the four series was February 2001, with some series peaking considerably earlier. Moreover, another data series, which the NBER has recently announced it will incorporate into its business-cycle dating process, also shows a peak before March 2001: monthly GDP reached a high point in February 2001, according to the most recently available estimates computed by a private economic consulting firm.
While some arbitrariness in determining the date on which a recession began is inevitable, revisions since the NBER made its decision for the most recent recession strongly suggest that the business-cycle peak was before March 2001. The median date of the peak for the five series discussed here is October 2000. Other data support the notion that economic activity had slowed sharply or even begun to decline by this point, including the stock market, business investment, and initial unemployment claims. For these reasons, the analyses throughout this chapter (including the charts that compare this recession to past recessions) use the fourth quarter of 2000 as the peak of economic activity and the start of the recession.
NBER Business Cycle Committee states are the variables of importance:
The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy:
(1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and
(2) employment.
In addition, the committee refers to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing
and goods:
(3) industrial production and
(4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes.
The committee also looks at monthly estimates of real GDP such as those prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers (see
http://www.macroadvisers.com). Although these indicators are the most important measures considered by the NBER in developing its business cycle chronology, there is no fixed rule about which other measures contribute information to the process." [emphasis added]
Figure 1: Real GDP in billions of chained 1996$, SAAR. Source: BEA via St. Louis Fed FRED.
Figure 2: Payroll employment (red line) and civilian employment (over 16) (blue line), in thousands, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS via St. Louis Fed FRED.
Figure 3: Personal income less transfers, in billions of 2000Ch$ (using PCE deflator), seasonally adjusted. Source: BEA via St. Louis Fed FRED and author's calculations.
Figure 4: Industrial production, seasonally adjusted. Source: St. Louis Fed FRED.
Figure 5: Real sales of manufacturing and trade, in billions of 2000Ch$, seasonally adjusted. Source: BEA NIPA Supplementary Table 2BU.
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It looks like real monthly GDP (from MacroEconomics Advisers) had two peaks in 2001: May 2001 at $9.951 trillion and in August at $9.959 trillion after a sharp dip to $9.851 trillion in March. Though there was actually some negative GDP growth occurring in the last months of 2000.
I added the change in the current month to get to the next month right below.
2000 - Jul 9785.290
+84.479002000 - Aug 9869.769
-152000 - Sep 9854.769
+41.587002000 - Oct 9896.356
+2.196002000 - Nov 9898.552
-30.227002000 - Dec 9868.325
+12.488002001 - Jan 9880.813
+14.097002001 - Feb 9894.910
-43.522001 - Mar 9851.390
+38.552001 - Apr 9889.940
+60.562001 - May 9950.500
-72.865002001 - Jun 9877.635
-10.905002001 - Jul 9866.730
+91.787002001 - Aug 9958.517
-170.173002001 - Sep 9788.344
+107.085002001 - Oct 9895.429
-55.918002001 - Nov 9839.511
+156.279002001 - Dec 9995.790
