Florida's swing state status

[Dgov]

Republican supermajorities in the legislature have more to do with shameless gerrymandering than with actual preferences.

And a wider geographic base.  Republicans win most of the state with 55-60% of the vote.  The reason the Democrats are even competitive at all is because of the huge margins they can pull in big cities, which makes them easy to gerrymander both intentionally and unintentionally (a fairly drawn map would still favor republicans considerably).

[Dgov]

Florida's largest cities aren't that Democratic compared to other large cities. In fact, Obama didn't get 70% in any of FL's largest cities.

Err, I mean large Urban areas.  See FL-17 for an example of what i mean--a district that isn't all that gerrymandered, that is one of the Safest for the Democrats in the entire country right next to 3 marginally republican ones (the Cuban ones)