Florida's swing state status
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  Florida's swing state status
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ajc0918
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« on: November 27, 2010, 04:27:30 PM »

Is Florida only a swing state at the Presidential level?

Sure many Florida races are close, such as the 2010 Governor's race, but democrat's currently don't hold any statewide offices and Republicans hold super majorities in both state chambers.

In 2010, faced with party switchers(Crist) and like 3 party officials getting arrested the RPOF (Repub Party of Florida) still managed to win the AG off by 13 points, and the CFO and Agriculture Commissioner by 18 points.

Is the Florida Democrat's failures due to poor candidates/campaigning or is Florida just more Republican than everyone thinks?
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ShamDam
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2010, 07:50:03 PM »

I think it's more Republican than everyone thinks. I don't think it's even a swing state at the presidential level anymore; Democrats can win without it and it's a necessary victory for Republicans, so I'd say it's lean Republican on all levels.
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DS0816
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« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2010, 04:18:29 AM »
« Edited: November 29, 2010, 04:23:17 AM by DS0816 »

I think it's more Republican than everyone thinks. I don't think it's even a swing state at the presidential level anymore; Democrats can win without it and it's a necessary victory for Republicans, so I'd say it's lean Republican on all levels.

For presidential elections, Florida is a bellwether state. It has voted with the winner in every election since 1928 with exceptions of 1960 and 1992. That's 19 of the last 21 elections. And since the first post-World War II election of 1948, Fla. has been in agreement with much-tauted bellwether Ohio (backing the winner of every election since 1896 sans 1944 and 1960) in all of them except 1992.

When John Kennedy didn't flip Fla. on Richard Nixon, Nixon held it by just 3.03% after Dwight Eisenhower won it in his 1956 re-election by 14.54%. Bill Clinton reduced George Bush's 1992 margin by 1.89% after Bush won his 1988 election by 22.36%.

Fla. doesn't just swing — it lines up for the winner. And my guess is that the Sunshine State will be in the column of a prevailing presidential candidate for quite some time.
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Verily
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« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2010, 03:02:06 PM »

Republican supermajorities in the legislature have more to do with shameless gerrymandering than with actual preferences.

Otherwise, no doubt Republicans win low-turnout elections in Florida consistently. But it's just idiosyncratic.
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BRTD
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« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2010, 03:43:11 PM »

Sure many Florida races are close, such as the 2010 Governor's race, but democrat's currently don't hold any statewide offices

Bill Nelson is still in the Senate.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2010, 09:31:26 PM »

Sure many Florida races are close, such as the 2010 Governor's race, but democrat's currently don't hold any statewide offices

Bill Nelson is still in the Senate.

Not for long.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2010, 09:39:56 PM »

It's just more Republican than everybody thinks.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2010, 09:26:30 PM »

Very effective state GOP, Republican controlled State legislature, and National GOP focus on the state since 2000 has produced a Republican edge in FL that wouldn't exist in similar
"swing" states.
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Dgov
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2010, 03:09:34 PM »

Republican supermajorities in the legislature have more to do with shameless gerrymandering than with actual preferences.

And a wider geographic base.  Republicans win most of the state with 55-60% of the vote.  The reason the Democrats are even competitive at all is because of the huge margins they can pull in big cities, which makes them easy to gerrymander both intentionally and unintentionally (a fairly drawn map would still favor republicans considerably).
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nclib
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« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2010, 10:40:48 PM »

Florida's largest cities aren't that Democratic compared to other large cities. In fact, Obama didn't get 70% in any of FL's largest cities.
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Dgov
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« Reply #10 on: December 07, 2010, 02:41:26 AM »

Florida's largest cities aren't that Democratic compared to other large cities. In fact, Obama didn't get 70% in any of FL's largest cities.

Err, I mean large Urban areas.  See FL-17 for an example of what i mean--a district that isn't all that gerrymandered, that is one of the Safest for the Democrats in the entire country right next to 3 marginally republican ones (the Cuban ones)
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ajc0918
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« Reply #11 on: December 18, 2010, 04:56:50 PM »

Florida's largest cities aren't that Democratic compared to other large cities. In fact, Obama didn't get 70% in any of FL's largest cities.

Err, I mean large Urban areas.  See FL-17 for an example of what i mean--a district that isn't all that gerrymandered, that is one of the Safest for the Democrats in the entire country right next to 3 marginally republican ones (the Cuban ones)

Well they made it so FL-17 is like 82% minority.
Orlando is growing more democrat, Bush only lost it marginally but Obama won it by a good amount I believe.

As to large urban areas Pinellas County is a pretty good bellwether. It has conservative north and democratic (and black) south. It voted for Gore, Bush, and Obama.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #12 on: December 22, 2010, 07:00:27 PM »

Not to bring up a sore subject, but Florida also expunges the highest % of potential voters from the rolls due to even having the slightest nicks with the law.  This of course affects the Democrats more and is said to be as high as 9%, while many states are a fraction of a %.  I think the state's more Democratic if anything, but the GOP is just better organized and more brutal at vote suppression than in other states.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #13 on: December 23, 2010, 02:43:32 PM »

Not to bring up a sore subject, but Florida also expunges the highest % of potential voters from the rolls due to even having the slightest nicks with the law.  This of course affects the Democrats more and is said to be as high as 9%, while many states are a fraction of a %.  I think the state's more Democratic if anything, but the GOP is just better organized and more brutal at vote suppression than in other states.

I agree the RPOF is more organized, has more funding, and more loyal super voters, but I've never heard of major voter suppression going on.

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