I think it's more Republican than everyone thinks. I don't think it's even a swing state at the presidential level anymore; Democrats can win without it and it's a necessary victory for Republicans, so I'd say it's lean Republican on all levels.
For presidential elections, Florida is a bellwether state. It has voted with the winner in every election since 1928 with exceptions of 1960 and 1992. That's 19 of the last 21 elections. And since the first post-World War II election of 1948, Fla. has been in agreement with much-tauted bellwether Ohio (backing the winner of every election since 1896 sans 1944 and 1960) in all of them except 1992.
When John Kennedy didn't flip Fla. on Richard Nixon, Nixon held it by just 3.03% after Dwight Eisenhower won it in his 1956 re-election by 14.54%. Bill Clinton reduced George Bush's 1992 margin by 1.89% after Bush won his 1988 election by 22.36%.
Fla. doesn't just swing — it lines up for the winner. And my guess is that the Sunshine State will be in the column of a prevailing presidential candidate for quite some time.
