Annexation of Canada and post election results (2032)

[5280]

What would the election map of post 2032 look like if Canada was annexed part of the United States? Each state has their own electoral votes. If it ever happened, do you think the US would redraw the province/state boundries to mimic those of the current 50 US states? The reason for annexation of Canada can be a number of reasons.

Notice: This will likely not ever happen in our lifetime.

This is what I came up with for EV based on populations of July 2010.

British Columbia - 9 EV
Alberta - 7 EV
Saskatchewan - 4 EV
Manitoba - 4 EV
Ontario - 15 EV
Quebec - 11 EV
Yukon/Nunavut/Northwest Territories/Prince Edward Island - 1 EV
Newfoundland/Labrador - 3 EV
Nova Scotia/New Brunswick - 3 EV

How I think they would vote:


Post your maps and predictions!

[tpfkaw]

I think we can safely say you don't even have cursory (i.e. Google search) knowledge of Canadian politics.  Anyways, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan would all be GOP states, the rest Dem of varying strengths.

[bgwah]

They would initially be almost all Democratic, I imagine. Heck, I seem to remember a poll that showed Kerry even winning Alberta by 10 or so... After a few decades, the equilibrium would be restored, either by several provinces starting to become reliably Republican or by some lean D states in the lower 48 moving into the R column. A mix of both, probably.

I'm going to refrain from making a map at this point in time because I'm afraid of Hashemite yelling at me!

[BenNebbich]

Hi,

i don't think that one EV for a state is possible. i think the minimum is three electoral votes.

please correct if i am wrong.

[Hash]

I hate it when people come in to make the 600th scenario about Canada being American and proving that they don't know anything about Canada.

...but in the world of these stupid scenarios, this map isn't all that awful though it certainly isn't anywhere near accurate

[Hash]

How should the map look?

Impossible to say without looking like an idiot (apparently, it's not a concern for some here).

a) if annexation happened overnight, it probably wouldn't go down to well. Despite having a culture identical to Americans, Anglo-Canadians don't want to be annexed and would not be too pleased about such a thing happening. I won't even go into Quebec's issues.
b) overnight or not, the parties would be forced to adapt and accommodate themselves. Canada will never vote for a party as extreme as the GOP is in its present state, so unless the GOP fancies playing the role of the eternal small opposition, it will be forced to adapt. I can't state the importance of this point enough.
c) vastly different issues would be in play and would affect voting patterns considerably

But obviously it's much more fun to make stupid assumptions and draw nice useless maps!

[Hatman 🍁]

What happened to Nova Scotia and New Brunswick on your list? And why did you lump PEI with the Territories?

Anyways, the circumstances behind annexation would effect the results a lot. If it's like that movie H2O, then it would be over water. They did some funky things with the provinces though to create new states. Any form of annexation wouldn't be popular unless Canada had some horrible leader (check) and the U.S. looked like an appealing place to be part of (not check, we love(d) Obama, but um...)

If we suddenly were granted the right to vote in American elections, but got to keep our independence, then every province would vote Democratic.

I remember in those Bush-Kerry polls that Bush actually did the best in Atlantic Canada, not Alberta. Go figure. I think Newfies are the most pro-American province, and Ontario is the most culturally similar to the US.

[hawkeye59]

This is probably wrong, but Alberta and Newfoundland would be the most likely to join the US, right?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I honestly know nothing about Canada, but I imagine the NorthWestern territories eventually ending up like the reliably Republican Western Mountain/Plains states.

[5280]

Yes, apparently I forgot to add Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, I'll add those in.

For the sake of this map, it's not entirely accurate but you get the general idea.  The provinces with low populations I bunched together since it's moot to keep them separate. Im not sure if there's a certain demographics to have at least 3 EV or whatever.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Hmm.

The problem with converting Canadian politics into American political systems is that things in Canada are a bit weird thanks to the multiple parties. For example, the midwest you covered was mostly right, but Ontario is polarized between the Liberals and Conservatives, whereas British Columbia is polarized between the NDP and Conservatives (the Liberals not being so important there). Ontario is more centre-left whereas British Columbia has both the centre-right + far-right people like in Alberta as well as far-left Socialists supporting the NDP, making it quite polarized.

To be honest, I would imagine Canada being annexed would change the US political system into a multi-party system (especially seeing as how pissed off the Quebecois would be, with even less ability to secede).

[Mayflower1978]

Quebec, Ontario, British Colombia, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Nunavut would be Strong or Lean Democratic State probably All of Canadian States would vote Dem.

[MAINEiac4434]

Nunavut would be safe Democratic territory. Native peoples are some of the most consistent Democratic voters out there - counties with large native majorities routinely go 70+ points for Democrats in the Dakotas.

[Kingpoleon]

Quebec would likely still be won by the Bloc Quebeçois, while the Conservative Party would ~75% become Republicans. The Liberal Party might become centrist. The NDP would partially become Democratic and partially merge with the Liberty Union Party and Vermont Progressive Party(in Vermont), the Working Families Party(NY, CT, OR, NJ, MD, DC, PA, WI, RI, NV, NM, and IL), the Oregon Progressive Party, and the Working People's Party of Puerto Rico. The Liberal Party would at least stay dominant in Newfoundland and Labrador, while the New Progressive Alliance would do best in Alberta, British Columbia, Vermont, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii.