A Second Chance - CONCLUSION

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

March 10th, 1980

Lindsay Drops Out!

Today, in an event that probably should have occured five days ago, former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development John Lindsay announced his withdrawal from the race for the Republican nomination. Ringed by big name Liberal Republicans such as former Secretary of State Nelson Rockefeller, former Senator Jacob Javits, Senator Lowell Weicker, and Congressman Jon Anderson, Lindsay offered no endorsement. However, it is expected his support will mostly split between Hatfield and Baker.

With Lindsay out of the running, the Eastern Establishment seems to have lost its candidate. Despite this, it will most likely pick up a new one soon as Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker already has a number of establishment support including the endorsement of former President Nixon who, by the standards of today's most recent Presidents, actually looks quite accomplished in comparison.

Political analysts are, however, wondering where Hatfield will benefit. Despite being a more Liberal Republican than Reagan, the Eastern Establishment never truly took a liking to him, with Rockefeller even once describing him as "dangerous" to the way things currently are. It seems that for now, the Senator that has been referred to by names such as "the Western Radical", "the Hippie Republican", and "an Evangelical Progressive" won't be picking up that many endorsements.

Lindsay has had a long political life, dating back to 1958 and his successful run for the United States House of Representatives. Since then he has worked for three Republican Administrations and in both Legislative and Executive positions. However, his record is marred by failures as New York City Mayor and a very inactive justice department. It seems that following this, his political career has come to a close.

With Lindsay's exit from the race, this leaves Senator Robert Taft Jr. the only candidate to not yet win a primary or caucus. It seems the death knell was struck for his campaign following the incoming results from the Wyoming Republican Caucuses where Taft had been leading for the majority of the time. Without that one victory, it looks like Taft will be dropping out soon, which begs the question: who will  he endorse? While Reagan may tout the same ideological name that Taft does, Conservatism, Hatfield has made a more open appeal to Libertarians. It seems that Taft's support could go fifty-fifty for the two. That still does not answer the question of who Taft, the son of the man once dubbed "Mr. Republican", will endorse.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

March 11th, 1980

Alabama Republican Primary:

Reagan-41%
Baker-38%
Taft-12%
Hatfield-9%

Alabama Democratic Primary:

Kennedy-44%
Write-in/Unpledged-39%
McCarthy-17%

Alaska Democratic Caucuses:

McCarthy-56%
Kennedy-44%

Florida Republican Primary:

Baker-35%
Reagan-30%
Hatfield-21%
Taft-14%

Florida Primary Democratic Primary:

Kennedy-57%
McCarthy-33%
Write-in/Unpledged-10%

Georgia Republican Primary:

Baker-37%
Reagan-32%
Taft-16%
Hatfield-15%

Georgia Democratic Primary:

Kennedy-66%
McCarthy-18%
Write-in/Unpledged-16%

Hawaii Democratic Caucuses:

McCarthy-58%%
Kennedy-40%
Write/Unpledged-in-2%

Oklahoma Democratic Caucuses:

Kennedy-63%
McCarthy-37%

Washington Republican Caucuses:

Hatfield-45%
Baker-23%
Reagan-20%
Taft-12%

Washington Democratic Caucuses:

Kennedy-54%
McCarthy-43%
Unpledged-3%

Republican Primary Map

Light Blue-Hatfield
Blue-Baker
Dark Blue-Reagan

Democratic Primary Map

Red-Kennedy
Pink-McCarthy

In the South, results were mixed for Kennedy as, despite winning every primary in the South, there had been a large amount of write-ins either for Governor George Wallace of Alabama or Congressman Larry McDonald of Georgia. Because of that, it seemed obvious that Southerners as a whole weren't completely content with the two choices presented and were even more likely than before to vote for the Republicans. That, coupled with contiuous polling, was bad news for Kennedy, whose greatest hope below the Mason-Dixon line was for Hatfield to win the nomination.

-Republicans in Revolution, Bob Woodward, (c) 2003

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

um wut

No, not happening.

Historically, when these two squared off in Massachusetts back in '68, McCarthy absolutely spanked him, sweeping every single Congressional District.

Here's some data,

McCarthy - 49.25%
Kennedy - 27.56%
Others - (will provide upon request)

So no, even if Kennedy were to beat McCarthy in MA, it would not have been a wipe-out, unless there is something severe that I missed.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

As was mentioned, the MA party bosses did not allow McCarthy on the MA ballot, and his one percent was a write-in. However, I will adjust. Also, remember, RFK was Senator from MA as well as Governor, as opposed to being from NY.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Niemeyerite]

I've just come back from Portugal... RIP Mark Hatfield. Now, more than ever, I want him to win in this TL

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Trust me, Mark's gonna end up good.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

March 13th, 1980; Delaware Democratic Caucuses

Taft Drops Out!

Earlier today, Ohio Senator Robert Taft Jr. announced the end of his campaign for the Republican nomination.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

With Senator Taft leaving his Presidential campaign to return to his business in the Senate, does this mark the final end of one of America's longest lasting political families? Taft's great-grandfather, Alphonso Taft, served under Presidetn Grant as Secretary of War and Attorney General. Taft's grandfather, William Howard Taft, served as the 27th President of the United States of America as well as in several high-ranking positions during the McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt years. Lastly, Robert Taft, the father of the current Senator, served as Senator from Ohio from 1939 to his death in 1953. He ran for President multiple times during that tenure, winning the Republican nomination a total of zero times. However, it does not seem that way. Taft's son Bob Taft, also known as Robert Taft II due to his father's middle name, is currently serving in the Ohio House of Representatives. He is not the only Taft to have held political office, and it is believed, even hoped by some, that he will not be the last.

As for where this leaves the Presidential race? It is unclear. Due to Hatfield's campaign being mroe Libertarian and more reflective of the type of Republicanism that Taft is a believer in, it is believed that much of Taft's support will go to him. However, it is also believed that Reagan's campaign, strongly stressing the ideology of Conservatism, will benefit from Taft also. It is still unclear of where these two men stand in Taft's mind, and if Hatfield's moderation will be too liberal for Taft or if Reagan's hawkishness will drive Taft away. With Taft endorsing no-one as of now, it leaves only his supporters to decide.

Other News: The Delaware Democratic Caucuses

Yesterday, the Delaware Democratic Caucuses took place, and the result is as was predicted by many, a win for the inbumbent President Kennedy. And, as before with other Kennedy victories, the President's supporters and surrogates are calling for McCarthy to step out of the race. However, McCarthy and his following remain persistent and still, apparently, believe in McCarthy's chances of winning.

Kennedy-53%
McCarthy-45%
Write-in/Unpledged-2%

Democratic Primary Map

Red-Kennedy
Pink-McCarthy

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I don't like how the forum condenses this, but this is the wikibox for the 1968 Republican primaries.


If you follow the picture's link, you should be able to get full size (I think).
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/6080_12_08_11_11_24_13.JPG

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Should be able to see it full size here.

[tpfkaw]

So no, even if Kennedy were to beat McCarthy in MA, it would not have been a wipe-out, unless there is something severe that I missed.

Yes, that McCarthy was the only candidate on the ballot and Kennedy was a write-in.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

So no, even if Kennedy were to beat McCarthy in MA, it would not have been a wipe-out, unless there is something severe that I missed.

Yes, that McCarthy was the only candidate on the ballot and Kennedy was a write-in.

You're reading?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

March 15th, 1980
Today, three Democratic caucuses are being held. In South Carolina, Mississippi, and Wyoming. It is expected to be an easy win for President Kennedy given the relative Conservatism of these three states, especially given the endorsement of powerful Conservative Democrat Strom Thurmond in South Carolina. On the Republican side, the Maine Caucuses, which began on February 1st, are wrapping up and the winner is expected to be either Senator Hatfield or Senator Baker.

Maine Republican Caucuses

Hatfield-33%
Baker-30%
Reagan-21%
Lindsay (Dropped Out)-13%
Others (Dropped Out)-3%

Mississippi Democratic Caucuses

Kennedy-56%
McCarthy-39%
Write-in/Unpledged-5%

South Carolina Democratic Caucuses

Kennedy-62%
Write-in/Unpledged-24%
McCarthy-12%

Wyoming Democratic Caucuses

McCarthy-53%
Kennedy-46%
Write-in/Unpledged-1%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Democratic Primary Map

Red-Kennedy
Pink-McCarthy

Republican Primary Map

Light Blue-Hatfield
Blue-Baker
Dark Blue-Reagan

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

March 18th, 1980

Illinois Democratic Primary

Kennedy-52%
McCarthy-48%
Write-in/Unpledged->1%

Illinois Republican Primary

Reagan-36%
Baker-33%
Hatfield-30%

Reagan's win here tonight is seen by commentators as the result of not only high turnout down-state, but of the endorsements of Congressman Donald Rumsfeld, a former Presidential candidate, and Governor "Big Jim" Thompson who is popular in the state. Despite Hatfield winning the endorsement of Senator Charles Percy, it appears that Conservatives have won the night in this race, or at least a plurality of the night. Despite having won only five states to Hatfield's six, it looks like the race has begun to turn towards Reagan with this and we may see a frontrunner within the next few races.

On the Democratic side, it is a strange reversal of fortune as Downstaters are actually voting more for McCarthy than Kennedy who holds the endorsements of the Daleys and of Senator Adlai Stevenson III, and is doing well in the urban areas of upstate Illinois. With the Democratic machine in the state behind him, Kennedy has pulled off a victory here.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

March 21st, 1980
 
North Dakota Republican Caucuses

Hatfield-42%
Reagan-39%
Baker-19%

March 22nd, 1980

Virginia Democratic Caucuses

Kennedy-56%
McCarthy-41%
Write-in/Unpledged-3%

March 25th, 1980
    David Brinkley: ...And in the New York Republican Primary, it seems a tough three-way battle between Governor Reagan and Senators Baker and Hatfield has resulted in a surprising Reagan win. Many attribute this to the same Conservative forces that allowed Senator Jim Buckley to win re-election last year and that have been attempting to keep the liberal republicans out of power. In Connecticut, despite former President Bush's father having been Senator there, it seems that the man who George Bush endorsed, Ronald Reagan, will not be winning, and Hatfield has scored a surprising upset over Senator Baker.
     On the Democratic side, it looks to be an easy night for the President as he has repelled McCarthy's attempts to break into the Kennedy strongholds of Connecticut and New York, both of which were most likely won thanks to heavy urban and Catholic turnout.

Connecticut Democratic Primary

Kennedy-59%
McCarthy-41%

Connecticut Republican Primary

Hatfield-37%
Baker-36%
Reagan-27%

New York Democratic Primary

Kennedy-56%
McCarthy-44%

New York Republican Primary

Reagan-35%
Baker-34%
Hatfield-31%

April 1st, 1980

Kansas Democratic Primary

Kennedy-53%
McCarthy-47%

Kansas Republican Primary

Reagan-39%
Hatfield-36%
Baker-25%

Wisconsin Democratic Primary

McCarthy-57%
Kennedy-43%

Wisconsin Republican Primary

Hatfield-42%
Baker-32%
Reagan-26%

Democratic Primary Map

Red-Kennedy
Pink-McCarthy

Republican Primary Map

Light Blue-Hatfield
Blue-Baker
Dark Blue-Reagan

[Niemeyerite]

I don't know if I want Kennedym or McCarthy to win. If Hatfield is the republican nominee, I'd like the dmeocrat one to be Kennedy, so Hatfield could beat him easily.... but if he isn't the nominee, I stand with McCarthy

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

April 5th, 1980

Louisiana Democratic Primary

Kennedy-58%
McCarthy-37%
Write-in/Unpledged-5%

Louisiana Republican Primary

Reagan-38%
Baker-37%
Hatfield-24%

April 7th, 1980

Oklahoma Republican Caucuses

Reagan-54%
Baker-28%
Hatfield-18%

April 12th, 1980

Arizona Democratic Caucuses

McCarthy-51%
Kennedy-49%

Missouri Republican Caucuses

Reagan-37%
Baker-34%
Hatfield-28%

It seems that after his failure to win both Missouri and Louisiana, any momentum Baker has been building seems to have died down. It looks like Baker's next and maybe last chance to win the nomination will be in Pennsylvania on April 22nd, ten days from now.

April 13th, 1980

Arizona Republican Committee Meeting

Arizona Republican Caucuses

Reagan-41%
Hatfield-32%
Baker-27%

April 17th, 1980

Idaho Democratic Caucuses

McCarthy-57%
Kennedy-43%

April 19th, 1980

North Dakota Democratic Caucuses

McCarthy-52%
Kennedy-48%

April 20th, 1980

Alaska Republican Convention

Democratic Primary Map

Red-Kennedy
Pink-McCarthy

Republican Primary Map

Dark Blue-Reagan
Light Blue-Hatfield
Blue-Baker

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Okay, I've only got like eight more days til school starts. Therefore, I hope to finish this election in the next eight days, which is unlikely due to the pace I'm working at, but there's always hope. Maybe if I post another update tonight, I can get a head start and have some hope.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

April 22nd, 1980

Missouri Democratic Caucuses

Kennedy-54%
McCarthy-44%
Writeiin/Unpledged-2%

Pennsylvania Democratic Primary

Kennedy-59%
McCarthy-41%

Pennsylvania Republican Primary

Reagan-38%
Baker-33%
Hatfield-29%

Vermont Democratic Caucuses

McCarthy-62%
Kennedy-38%

Vermont Republican Caucuses

Hatfield-43%
Baker-36%
Reagan-21%

April 23rd, 1980

Baker Drops Out

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In what is something that seems to have needed to happen, Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker has exited the race for th eRepublican nomination. During this campaign, he managed to win three states. His success began as an upset in the Massachusetts Republican primary and came to end on upsets. Upsets by Governor Ronald Reagan who won the rather close Missouri, Louisiana, New York, and Pennsylvania races over Baker who, should he have won all of them along with Alabama, South Carolina, and Arkansas, would probably be front-runner right now. He, like Taft before him, has not offered an endorsement. It seems both remaining candidates, Senator Hatfield and Governor Reagan, do not meet Baker's satisfaction, with Reagan a hard right Conservative and Hatfield a moderate yet rebellious Libertarian.

April 26th, 1980

Michigan Democratic Caucuses

Kennedy-53%
McCarthy-47%

April 30th, 1980

Delaware Republican Committee Meeting

May 3rd, 1980

Texas Republican Primary

Reagan-68%
Hatfield-42%

Texas Democratic Caucuses

Kennedy-63%
McCarthy-24%
Write-n.Unpledged-13%

May 5th, 1980

Colorado Democratic Caucuses

McCarthy-49%
Kennedy-49%
Write-in/Unpledged->1%

Colorado Republican Caucuses

Hatfield-56%
Reagan-44%

Democratic Primary Map

Red-Kennedy
Pink-McCarthy

Republican Primary Map

Dark Blue-Reagan
Light Blue-Hatfield
Blue-Baker

[Niemeyerite]

It'll be a Kennedy vs. Reagan GE =/

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Republican Delegate Count as of May 5th, 1980:
Governor Ronald Reagan of California: 655 delegates
Senator Mark Hatfield of Oregon: 303 delegates
Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker of Tennessee: 129 delegates
Up for Grabs: 797 delegates
Needed: 943 delegates

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

May 6th, 1980

Indiana Democratic Primary

Kennedy-55%
McCarthy-41%
Write-in/Unpledged-4%

Indiana Republican Primary

Reagan-53%
Hatfield-47%

North Carolina Democratic Primary

Kennedy-52%
Write-in/Unpledged-36%
McCarthy-12%

North Carolina Republican Primary

Reagan-63%
Hatfield-35%
Write-in/Unpledged-2%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Tennessee Democratic Primary

Kennedy-62%
McCarthy-37%
Write-in/Unpledged-1%

Tennessee Republican Primary

Reagan-57%
Hatfield-39%
Howard Baker (Write-in)-4%

Washington DC Democratic Primary

McCarthy-51%
Kennedy-49%

Washington DC Republican Primary

Hatfield-83%
Reagan-17%

Republican Delegate Count as of May 6th, 1980:
Governor Ronald Reagan of California: 781 delegates
Senator Mark Hatfield of Oregon: 317 delegates
Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker of Tennessee: 129 delegates
Up for Grabs: 657 delegates
Needed: 943 delegates

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

May 6th, 1980
At the Eugene McCarthy for President campaign hedquarters in Indiana...
    Mike: Look, Gene, We knew that it would be a long shot. He's had support among labor, business, and the South. We all know you've fought the good fight. Now there's only one course of action.
    Gene: Yes. I... I had just hoped that I'd be able to break through the Kennedy machine...
    Mike: You found out in 1968 that the breaking the Kennedy machine was nothing doing. I found out again in 1972 and we all found out a third time in 1976. Kennedy has many things on his side. In New England he had his damn Boston roots. In Massachusetts, a place you would have easily won had anyone with Kennedy's positions been from anywhere else, you were beaten with only some write-in votes going for you. You would have easily won Maine and Connecticut and maybe even New York were it not for Kennedy being placed in just the right spot.
    Gene: I know... I guess it's time to concede and move on.
    Mike: Yeeeesss. If we can't beat the bastard inside his own party, we sure as heck will show him that he's not going to win in the general.
    Gene: Get Ralph, Jerry, Fred, Bill, and Frank on the line and get confirmation.
    Mike: (smiles) Gladly... Y'know, it's a shame that George couldn't be here.
    Gene: Sadly, he's already sold out and now he's trapped.
    Mike: Yeah... Anyway, I'll get right on it.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

May 7th, 1980

McCarthy Drops Out!
Announces Third Party Bid!

At a press conference earlier today, former Senator Eugene McCarthy unloaded on not only President Kennedy's legacy, but the legacy of several previous Presidents. During his speech, he announced that he shall be running for President as an Independent.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

With Mcarthy entering the race for the Presidency running on a third-party ticket, one must wonder if President Kennedy has any chance now. While he was already polling behind many potential Republican nominees, now it seems that, should McCarthy take only a few percentage points, Kennedy would be doomed.

On the other side of the aisle, it looks as if Senator Hatfield is fighting a losing battle against Governor Reagan. Should Reagan win the Republican nomination and choose a Conservative, such as Congressman Donald Rumsfeld of Illinois or Senator Paul Laxalt of Nevada, for Vice-President, might Hatfield bolt to McCarthy's candidacy? It would seem a fitting match, the anti-war hippie Republican and the anti-war hippie Democrat. It seems not, for Hatfield, as he will tell you, is a loyal Republican.[/i]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hatfield would be a very formidable runningmate for McCarthy: eight years as a Governor and now over thirteen years as Oregon's Senator. Not only that, but he has a loyal following within the Republican Party and could potentially bring in tons of Libertarian Republicans plus, of course his home state of Oregon and potentially the mountain west. However, it seems, Hatfield is out of the question, leading to the possibilities of other Vice-Presidential picks. Congressman Pete McCloskey of California? Another anti-war Republican, this one a little less experienced and well know, could, should Hatfield lose, take with him Hatfield's support. On the other side of the aisle, there are several potential Democratic picks. Senators Mike Gravel, William Proxmire, Frank Church, and Jerry Brown have all endorsed McCarthy and are all able picks. However, Church, Brown, and Gravel are all up for re-election this year, and many doubt that Jerry Brown would end a very promising political career after only one term in the Senate, despite the hope that Brown could bring in California for McCarthy's campaign. However, there are other choices. Senator Proxmire is not up for re-election this fall, and another supporter of McCarthy is former Interior Secretary Ralph Nader who himself, despite working for both Kennedy administrations, is currently a vehement Kennedy opponent. McCarthy's runningmate, and his subsequent success, however, remains to be seen.

[Niemeyerite]

incredible, cathcon. your TL are always exciting and surprising... but this time, you've defied yourself.