Official US 2010 Census Results

[jimrtex]

Odd choice of states.

It will even out

[minionofmidas]

Odd choice of states.

It will even out

You think? Sure they won't end up releasing New Jersey twice and Texas not at all?

[jimrtex]

Odd choice of states.

It will even out

You think? Sure they won't end up releasing New Jersey twice and Texas not at all?

Illinois will probably be next.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Odd choice of states.

Not really, those are the states that have state legislative elections this year, so they need to redistrict ASAP.

[minionofmidas]

Odd choice of states.

Not really, those are the states that have state legislative elections this year, so they need to redistrict ASAP.

Ah, gotcha.

[muon2]

Odd choice of states.

Not really, those are the states that have state legislative elections this year, so they need to redistrict ASAP.

Ah, gotcha.

The Census Bureau has tried to prioritize the data releases in terms of when states will need to have districts in place for the next election. Obviously the states with elections in Nov 2011 have the most pressing need. That's also why IL is likely to be early. The petitions for 2012 begin circulation in Sep 2011, and filing is in Dec. The Dems will want to have an approved map by May 31 in order to use their majority to get the map they want.

[minionofmidas]

I seem to dimly recall they went in alphabetical order last time.

[jimrtex]

I seem to dimly recall they went in alphabetical order last time.

No, because Texas had a March state primary in 2002, with a filing deadline in very early January, which meant the district boundaries had to be in place rather early.  Another consideration is when the legislature or other redistricting body meets.  For example, in Texas, if the legislature fails to redistrict the legislature, the task transfers to the Legislative Redistricting Board.  So if there is no legislative map by early May, there won't be a map drawn by the legislature.

For congressional districts, there is some flexibility since it would be possible to call a special session (though it is not particularly desirable for federal bureaucrats to be forcing legislative meetings).  In 2001, the federal court determined the date when district boundaries had to be established, and how long it would take them to draw districts, and took jurisdiction based on that.

I figured your odd choice of words meant that you knew which states had odd-year legislative elections.  In the case of Louisiana and Mississippi, the legislature is elected for (coincident) 4-year terms, so if they don't redistrict now, the new boundaries would not go into effect until 2015, more than half way through the census decade.  In 2001, they might not have had a similar priority, since their legislative elections were in 2003.  And because Louisiana didn't have a congressional primary at that time, it might have had the very latest filing deadline of any state.

[jimrtex]

Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, and Maryland will be released next week.

It probably takes more effort to do larger states, and perhaps there are not tasks than can easily be done in parallel (eg. you could have one team do one medium sized state and then another, while another toils away on Illinois or Texas).

Also the Census Bureau has released its 2010 estimates for state populations based on the 2000 census.

[jimrtex]

Data was shipped to the legislative leaders in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.  As soon as they acknowledge receipt (probably tomorrow) the census bureau will release summary tables:

Top 20 counties and cities by population.

Racial breakdown for state (all persons and over 18)

Hispanic + racial breakdown for non-Hispanics (all person and over 18)

Racial breakdown for persons reporting two races

Hispanic + racial breakdown for non-Hispanics for 20 most populous counties and cities.

So you will see these in newspapers on Friday.

FTP release will also happen tomorrow, and data will be available on American Fact Finder, the day after.  PS if you have not used the new American Fact Finder, click on help and watch a couple of tutorials - otherwise it is pretty unexplicable.

[Kevinstat]

I seem to dimly recall they went in alphabetical order last time.

In the case of Louisiana and Mississippi, the legislature is elected for (coincident) 4-year terms, so if they don't redistrict now, the new boundaries would not go into effect until 2015, more than half way through the census decade.

The Mississippi Constitution (Article 13, Section 254) only mandates Legislative redistricting "in the second year following the 1980 decennial census and every ten (10) years thereafter," but allows it "at any other time, by joint resolution, by majority vote of all members of each house."  I'm not sure if that means that the Legislature will have to re-adopt the plan adopted this year (assuming they adopt one as seems to be expected - it only didn't happen in 1991 because of a lawsuit alleging VRA violations and Department of Justice non-preclearance, and when a plan was enacted in 1992 a federal district court commuted the existing Legislative terms and ordered elections for a three-year term coinciding with the 1992 Presidential Election; more info in the first two case summaries here) in 2012 (or make changes to that plan if they so desire), or if that particular wording of Mississippi's constitution (the constitutional amendment establishing this schedule was adopted in 1979, and in the 1980s the first non-special Legislative elections would have been in 1983) is interpreted to include years ending in 1, at least in those decades when the Legislature is up for election in years ending in 1.

[jimrtex]

This is a comparison of the 2010 Census Population to census bureau estimates of the 2010 population based on the 2000 Census adjusted for births, deaths, and migration.

I based the estimate on a linear interpolation of the July 1, 2009 and July 1, 2010 estimates, to April 1, 2010.  The Census Bureau also produced an April 1, 2010 estimate, but the differences are negligible.

They really missed on Hawaii, which seems kind of odd, since you would think they would have a better handle on migration.  North Dakota and Wyoming are both off considerably.  This may be due the late-decade oil boomlet which may not show up as migration yet since it is based on tax returns.


State                  Census    Error    Estimate
Alabama              4,779,736   1.012   4,724,116
Alaska                 710,231   1.007     705,319
Arizona              6,392,017   0.961   6,654,384
Arkansas             2,915,918   1.004   2,904,510
California          37,253,956   1.002  37,171,854
Colorado             5,029,196   0.991   5,075,271
Connecticut          3,574,097   1.014   3,523,909
Delaware               897,934   1.009     889,629
District of Columbia   601,723   0.990     607,936
Florida             18,801,310   1.009  18,636,021
Georgia              9,687,653   0.980   9,884,665
Hawaii               1,360,301   1.049   1,297,136
Idaho                1,567,582   1.007   1,555,963
Illinois            12,830,632   0.992  12,931,627
Indiana              6,483,802   1.007   6,438,290
Iowa                 3,046,355   1.009   3,019,394
Kansas               2,853,118   1.006   2,835,198
Kentucky             4,339,367   1.002   4,332,643
Louisiana            4,533,372   1.003   4,519,442
Maine                1,328,361   1.011   1,313,677
Maryland             5,773,552   1.008   5,725,055
Massachusetts        6,547,629   0.989   6,621,511
Michigan             9,883,640   0.995   9,937,241
Minnesota            5,303,925   1.004   5,283,541
Mississippi          2,967,297   1.003   2,957,836
Missouri             5,988,927   0.997   6,004,364
Montana                989,415   1.011     978,655
Nebraska             1,826,341   1.011   1,807,017
Nevada               2,700,551   1.019   2,650,710
New Hampshire        1,316,470   0.995   1,323,194
New Jersey           8,791,894   1.008   8,723,039
New Mexico           2,059,179   1.016   2,027,235
New York            19,378,102   0.991  19,563,951
North Carolina       9,535,483   1.011   9,433,443
North Dakota           672,591   1.032     651,809
Ohio                11,536,504   1.000  11,532,048
Oklahoma             3,751,351   1.010   3,714,745
Oregon               3,831,074   0.996   3,847,417
Pennsylvania        12,702,379   1.006  12,625,113
Rhode Island         1,052,567   0.996   1,057,015
South Carolina       4,625,364   1.009   4,586,283
South Dakota           814,180   0.996     817,761
Tennessee            6,346,105   1.003   6,326,389
Texas               25,145,561   1.002  25,102,747
Utah                 2,763,885   0.981   2,818,283
Vermont                625,741   1.006     622,184
Virginia             8,001,024   1.009   7,929,709
Washington           6,724,540   1.000   6,727,549
West Virginia        1,852,994   1.016   1,824,457
Wisconsin            5,686,986   1.004   5,664,077
Wyoming                563,626   1.031     546,826

[jimrtex]

Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, and Maryland will be released next week.

Add Vermont to this list for week of February 7 to 11.

[danny]

The numbers for the first 4 states are out, but, of course they released the data in some horrible format I couldn't figure out how to use, so I'm looking here: http://twitter.com/Redistrict for important news. Some interesting stuff so far.

[jimrtex]

The numbers for the first 4 states are out, but, of course they released the data in some horrible format I couldn't figure out how to use, so I'm looking here: http://twitter.com/Redistrict for important news. Some interesting stuff so far.

2010 Census News

If you click on a news release for a state, it includes links to thematic maps for population and population change per county, and an Excel file with some highlight data, including top 20 counties and cities.

Louisiana: NOLA lost 29% of its population.

Mississippi: Southaven is now 3rd most populous city in Mississippi.

New Jersey: All counties in New Jersey, except Essex and Cape May gained population.  Asians now make up 8.2% of the population, up from 5.7% in 2000.

Virginia: High growth area extends from just past Fairfax to Charlottesville and Richmond.  Hispanics make up 7.9% of population, up from 4.7% in 2000, with 20% in Prince William County, and 31% in Manassas (Corrida de Toros).


The FTP files are ASCII text files, but they are huge - one record per geographic unit, which goes down to the block level, and include 63 racial combinations.

[ag]

So, Loudon grew by 84%! And next 10 years won't be much worse: the metro's coming

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think Virginia's stuff is getting posted here as it becomes available.

Also, in Mississippi, the black population grew eight times more than the white population.

[minionofmidas]

Ìntra Hampton Roads population shifts are interesting.

Hampton declining, Portsmouth declining, Newport News flat, Chesapeake and Suffolk growing fast but Virginia Beach has more or less stopped growing and Norfolk is rebounding, growing marginally faster than VB.

[minionofmidas]

Also, in Mississippi, the black population grew eight times more than the white population.

7.5 times as much, or 6.5 times more than. While the nonhispanic black population grew by minus 11.5 times as much as the nonhispanic white population, as that actually fell.

Which really just teaches to not use such comparisons for low-growth phenomena at all. Never, ever.

[danny]

The numbers for the first 4 states are out, but, of course they released the data in some horrible format I couldn't figure out how to use, so I'm looking here: http://twitter.com/Redistrict for important news. Some interesting stuff so far.

2010 Census News

If you click on a news release for a state, it includes links to thematic maps for population and population change per county, and an Excel file with some highlight data, including top 20 counties and cities.

Thanks, I was stuck with those FTP's.

Lakewood really sticks out, all the other 20 biggest cities and townships grow between -8% to +8% while Lakewood grew 53.8%.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Mmm, maps:

http://www.vpap.org/updates/show/672

Ìntra Hampton Roads population shifts are interesting.

Hampton declining, Portsmouth declining, Newport News flat, Chesapeake and Suffolk growing fast but Virginia Beach has more or less stopped growing and Norfolk is rebounding, growing marginally faster than VB.

Chesapeake and Suffolk (and Isle of Wight and York Counties) have experienced a lot of development in the past decade. Development has virtually stopped in Virginia Beach (there's land still available, but it's protected by a "green line"), and the other cities don't have any land left to develop on, except for the occasional redevelopment or small condo project.

I was a little surprised that VA-11 came in so overpopulated; I thought it was expected to be about even.

[Verily]

The numbers for the first 4 states are out, but, of course they released the data in some horrible format I couldn't figure out how to use, so I'm looking here: http://twitter.com/Redistrict for important news. Some interesting stuff so far.

2010 Census News

If you click on a news release for a state, it includes links to thematic maps for population and population change per county, and an Excel file with some highlight data, including top 20 counties and cities.

Thanks, I was stuck with those FTP's.

Lakewood really sticks out, all the other 20 biggest cities and townships grow between -8% to +8% while Lakewood grew 53.8%.

Lakewood is an Orthodox Jewish stronghold.

[Brittain33]

The numbers for the first 4 states are out, but, of course they released the data in some horrible format I couldn't figure out how to use, so I'm looking here: http://twitter.com/Redistrict for important news. Some interesting stuff so far.

2010 Census News

If you click on a news release for a state, it includes links to thematic maps for population and population change per county, and an Excel file with some highlight data, including top 20 counties and cities.

Thanks, I was stuck with those FTP's.

Lakewood really sticks out, all the other 20 biggest cities and townships grow between -8% to +8% while Lakewood grew 53.8%.

Lakewood is an Orthodox Jewish stronghold.

The Star-Ledger credits a lot of the growth to new senior communities, plus the Hispanic population has increased a great deal. Natural increase among Hasidic Jews may be part of it but no population reproduces that quickly from such a high base.

[Verily]

The numbers for the first 4 states are out, but, of course they released the data in some horrible format I couldn't figure out how to use, so I'm looking here: http://twitter.com/Redistrict for important news. Some interesting stuff so far.

2010 Census News

If you click on a news release for a state, it includes links to thematic maps for population and population change per county, and an Excel file with some highlight data, including top 20 counties and cities.

Thanks, I was stuck with those FTP's.

Lakewood really sticks out, all the other 20 biggest cities and townships grow between -8% to +8% while Lakewood grew 53.8%.

Lakewood is an Orthodox Jewish stronghold.

The Star-Ledger credits a lot of the growth to new senior communities, plus the Hispanic population has increased a great deal. Natural increase among Hasidic Jews may be part of it but no population reproduces that quickly from such a high base.

The Star-Ledger is just wrong. (Maybe there is substantial Hispanic growth, too; that I could see, although not accounting for more than 10% of overall growth.) It's not just (or even primarily) reproduction; older Orthodox communities in NYC are leaving for the lower prices in Lakewood. Over half the population, and nearly all of the growth, is Orthodox Jewish.

[minionofmidas]

Data are on factfinder now.

Since Va. CDs have already been linked to, here's the other three states.

Louisiana CD1 687k, CD2 493k, CD3 637k, CD4 667k, CD5 644k, CD6 727k, CD7 677k
Mississippi CD1 788k, CD2 668k, CD3 757k, CD4 754k
Jersey CD1 669k, CD2 692k, CD3 680k, CD4 725k, CD5 667k, CD6 669k, CD7 673k, CD8 660k, CD9 661k, CD10 634k, CD11 674k, CD12 702k, CD13 685k