Victorian State Election 2010 Prediction Thread
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  Victorian State Election 2010 Prediction Thread
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Author Topic: Victorian State Election 2010 Prediction Thread  (Read 714 times)
Smid
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 22, 2010, 11:59:22 PM »
« edited: November 23, 2010, 12:51:46 AM by Smid »

Here is the blank map from the gallery. Feel free to colour it according to who you think will win these seats.

If you don't want to go that far, here are some prediction questions you may wish to go for, instead:

Statewide
ALP 2PP:
Liberal Primary Vote:
ALP Primary Vote:
Greens Primary Vote:
Safest Seat:
Most Marginal Seat:

Best seat for...
Labor:
Liberals:
Nationals:
Greens:
Family First:
DLP:
Sex Party:

The Coalition needs to win thirteen additional seats off Labor to form a majority Government. Predict the winner of these thirteen most marginal Labor-held seats
Mount Waverley:
Forest Hill:
Gembrook:
Mitcham:
South Barwon:
Frankston:
Mordialloc:
Prahran:
Burwood:
Ripon:
Bendigo East:
Bentleigh:
Eltham:

Since none of us believe in uniform swings, here are an extra few seats that are within 0.2% of Eltham...
Ballarat West:
Ballarat East:
Monbulk:
Carrum:
(I removed Seymour because it's in a seperate class)

A couple of higher-up-the-pendulum seats, which were notionally Liberal prior to the 2002 election...
Yan Yean:
Macedon:
Geelong:
Narre Warren North:
Narre Warren South:

A safer Labor seat, but one which has been a perfect bell-weather seat in every election since 1982...
Oakleigh:

Will the Coalition lose any of the seats it picked up at the last election?
Ferntree Gully:
Kilsyth:
Hastings:
Morwell (Nat):
Narracan:
Evelyn:
Bayswater:
(Mildura was gained off an independent, so I'm not including it here)

Prior to the Liberals' preferencing decision, the Greens believed they could win four seats in which they outpolled the Liberal Party. They believe they will do well in other seats, too, however. In these seats, where the Greens expect to do well, the 2PP will be...
Albert Park: Labor vs ? (Liberal, Greens or Independent)
Prahran: Liberal vs ? (ALP or Greens)
Hawthorn: Liberal vs ? (ALP or Greens)
Kew: Liberal vs ? (ALP or Greens)
Caulfield: Liberal vs ? (ALP or Greens)
Footscray: Labor vs ? (Liberal, Greens or Independent)

There are high-profile independents running in some seats. Who will be the eventual winner in the following seats? The independent is indicated in brackets, although in some cases the winner might be Liberal, Labor, Nationals or the Greens. The only incumbent independent is Craig Ingram in Gippsland East.
Gippsland East (Craig Ingram):
Seymour (Jan Beer):
Footscray (Catherine Cumming):
Essendon (Paul Giuliano):
Albert Park (Serge Thomann):

The Greens insist that the Liberal Party's decision to preference them last has not significantly harmed their chances of winning four inner-city seats in which they previously finished ahead of the Liberals. Which party will win...
Melbourne:
Richmond:
Brunswick:
Northcote:

Lisa Neville has been criticised by the media in her Ministerial capacity. She won the seat off an incumbent Liberal MP in 2002 with a very large swing, and had a very small swing against her at the last election. Will she be returned in/who will win...
Bellarine:

Former Police Minister, Bob Cameron, is retiring at this election. Is it possible the Liberals could pick up his seat in/who will win...
Bendigo West:

Upper House
Who will win the final seat in (party to win final seat indicated in brackets)...
Western Victoria (DLP):
Southern Metropolitan (Labor):
Southeastern Metropolitan (Labor):
Eastern Metropolitan (Liberal):
Northern Metropolitan (Labor):
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2010, 02:56:13 AM »
« Edited: November 24, 2010, 02:58:56 AM by Platypus city limits »



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I'll fill in the rest later Smiley

(Yes, i'm being a Labor hack)
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