One Hell of a Decade-a political TL

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Well, the new Congress met for the first time. Hoyer should be a good Minority Leader, and the way things are already going I think the House has good prospects for going blue again in 2012. We finally got DADT repealed-attaching it to a spending bill was a bad idea-and we even got a few Republicans to jump on board. I think it was...Snowe, Collins, Brown, and Lugar. The jobs bill was a bit harder to push through, but at least it seems the progressives are more satisfied with some New Deal-esque infrastructure. If the Republicans don't want to work with us, we'll just push it through the Senate until we come back next year.


-The Pelosi Diaries. Rep. Pelosi retired on February 7th, 2011,
with a special election to be held later.



THE LATE SHOW WITH DAVID LETTERMAN

"Well, Governor Barbour, you seem to have gained quite a bit of recognition lately for your orchestrating of the Republican victory in last year's gubernatorial elections. Now, there's been some speculation lately that you may use this new-found fame for a presidential bid. So my question is: Do you plan to make a presidential bid for 2012?"

"Th-this might not be the best place to announce it, but I'll say it right here, right now. I am announcing my bid to become the next president of the United States of America."

*wild applause*



Though gay activist and political consultant Fred Karger, talk show host Herman Cain, and businessman Jon Greenspon had announced their candidacies already, Haley Barbour was the first candidate who was seen as having a serious shot at the nomination. His candidacy and subsequent visits to Iowa and South Carolina sparked a flurry of other presidential hopefuls to announce their candidacy. The first of the other major candidates to announce his candidacy-former governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, at a hastily-planned rally in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, on February 15th. Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and South Dakota Senator John Thune soon followed.







Several other speculated candidates, including Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, both repeated that they had no intentions for a presidential bid. However, Jindal remained open to a VP or Cabinet slot, while Christie faced a surprisingly large draft campaign. Former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania also denied a presidential bid.

The last candidate to announce a bid in February was former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson. He fit in little with the Republican party; though fiscally conservative, he was also an outspoken supporter of drug decriminalization, same-sex marriage, and other traditionally liberal causes. With the spot for a libertarian Republican now filled, Ron Paul confirmed on a FOX interview that he was not entering the race despite outside pressure.



This is my TL from AH-I'm reposting it here.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Hoping that this goes somewhere good.

[feeblepizza]

Good so far, although I'm surprised at Santorum's refusal to run.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

While candidacies were being announced left and right, Obama was finding ways to wrangle with the GOP House. His first step was at his first State of the Union address to the new session of Congress, on February 1st, 2011.

By far the most notable excerpt was:

"We cannot look at what we may disagree with and just say "no". If
everyone filibusters, or refuses to negotiate, nothing gets done. The
economy stagnates. And no matter what, America is hurt by
unwillingness to work together. Democrats, Republicans, Independents,
everyone needs to work together to form bills. We need to get another
jobs bill passed. We need to set aside our blinders of partisanship and
look at the other guy, and shake hands, and say "What can we work on to
help these United States?" The first priority of a politician cannot be to take
down your enemy, or to get reelected. It must be to serve the people of
the greatest nation in the world."


With a well-received SOTU, as well as passing a ban on DADT earlier, Obama's approval ratings were consistently at least 50% for the first time in almost a year.




With the president's strength seemingly coming back, Romney, Pawlenty, Thune, and Barbour realized that they had to work at 110% of their potential if they wanted to have Obama go the way of Carter. In general, early polling was favoring Governor Romney in the critical states:

South Carolina:

Haley Barbour, 27%
Mitt Romney, 18%
Tim Pawlenty, 17%
John Thune, 11%

New Hampshire:

Mitt Romney, 41%
John Thune, 16%
Tim Pawlenty, 15%
Haley Barbour, 7%

Nevada:

Mitt Romney, 47%
Tim Pawlenty, 16%
John Thune, 16%
Haley Barbour, 8%

Iowa:

Tim Pawlenty, 25%
Mitt Romney, 19%
John Thune, 18%
Haley Barbour, 11%

Florida:

Mitt Romney, 34%
Haley Barbour, 21%
John Thune, 14%
Tim Pawlenty, 9%

Nationwide Polling:

Mitt Romney, 31%
Tim Pawlenty, 25%
John Thune, 21%
Haley Barbour, 13%

Mr. Romney's campaign released a statement on the early polls:

"Though Governor Romney is overjoyed at the current polling, in the end the only important results come from the ballot box."



As promised in March, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich announced his candidacy from his home in Georgia, soon making visits to South Carolina and New Hampshire. Of the other established candidates, Barbour was the most worried; a competitor in the Deep South could cost him the nomination, even if Gingrich was unlikely to beat the others.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Pawlenty was worried. Very worried. Though the entrance of Speaker
Gingrich into the race was most harmful to Barbour, with Palin not in
yet, the Tea Party vote was being split between him, Gingrich,
Barbour, and to a lesser extent Gary Johnson. At this rate, Romney
would slip through unscathed to grab the nomination.

But he was worried about Obama as well. Signs of the unemployment
rate slowly but surely dropping were evident, while Obama, seemingly
taking lessons from Bill Clinton, was regaining his old charisma and
becoming something the Republicans were starting to fear; a strong
Democrat.



Governor Pawlenty campaigning on a breezy day in Iowa, March 19th, 2010.

Meanwhile, Gingrich had his plan laid out: Talk about his successes in '94 while
keeping the discussion away from the affairs as much as possible. If he wanted
a chance at getting more than three votes, he HAD to steer away from the discussion
of Esquire.



Meanwhile, both Republicans and Democrats were eying control of both houses for 2012. With Republicans holding a majority of governorships, they could gerrymander potentially competitive areas, but the Democrats now held key gubernatorial offices like Illinois and California. In the Senate, candidates from both parties were looking like excellent targets. Governor Heineman of Nebraska announced an intent to run for Ben Nelson's seat
on April 17th, while the Tea Party was hoping to unseat moderate Republicans like
Dick Lugar and Olympia Snowe. Even their old hero, Scott Brown, was on their hit list. In
Wisconsin, rumors were that incumbent Herb Kohl was to
retire, and both former Senator Russ Feingold and fiscal hawk congressman
Paul Ryan were hungrily observing the seat.

With no sign of Palin thus far and the Tea vote being split
between Barbour, Gingrich, and Pawlenty, Romney's new
strategy was to sneak through, let the base split their vote,
and grab the nomination. New Hampshire was a shoe-in, South
Carolina was rather unlikely even with the SoCon splitting, but
Iowa...was the interesting one. Pawlenty still led in the state
thus far, but he was hanging on by a thread.

Current polling:


South Carolina:

Newt Gingrich, 24%
Mitt Romney, 17%
Haley Barbour, 16%
Tim Pawlenty, 13%
John Thune, 8%


New Hampshire:

Mitt Romney, 39%
Tim Pawlenty, 20%
John Thune, 17%
Newt Gingrich, 11%
Haley Barbour, 6%


Nevada:

Mitt Romney, 53%
Newt Gingrich, 12%
John Thune, 10%
Tim Pawlenty, 9%
Haley Barbour, 6%

Iowa:

Tim Pawlenty, 23%
Mitt Romney, 20%
Newt Gingrich, 15%
John Thune, 14%
Haley Barbour, 10%

Florida:

Mitt Romney, 33%
Newt Gingrich, 18%
Tim Pawlenty, 17%
Haley Barbour, 14%
John Thune, 7%


Nationwide Polling:

Mitt Romney, 30%
Tim Pawlenty, 21%
Newt Gingrich, 18%
Haley Barbour, 12%
John Thune, 10%


With the Gingrich campaign seemingly becoming a
juggernaut by the minute, the former Speaker wondered
if he would really be the star in Tampa next year or if he
was just a paper tiger. Would Esquire really be enough to
bring him down?



Every candidate, of course, knew the importance of
getting high-profile and low-profile politicans to endorse
him. All major candidates were beginning to rack up
endorsements from key political figures. The most important thus
far was Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC)'s endorsement of Speaker
Gingrich on March 22nd. At the same time, the Tea Party icon
bluntly stated that he would not run for President.

Meanwhile, the first debates were scheduled for April 3rd, 2011,
at the University of Iowa. All declared candidates were attending,
with the exceptions of Jon Greenspon, Herman Cain, and Fred Karger
would attend; leaks showed that SNL was already planning a skit
mostly focusing on Governor Barbour.

For the first time in the campaign, a PPP poll showed Governor
Romney ahead in Iowa, albeit in a statistical tie with only a
2-point lead over Pawlenty. The Romney campaign begun to take
shape; slink through the vote-splitting of the more conservative
candidates, and take pluralities in all the key states except
South Carolina (which still seemed out of reach), and all but
end the campaign with a sweep of Super Tuesday. On the other
hand, it counted on Barbour, Gingrich, Thune, and Pawlenty all staying
in until at least New Hampshire.



Governor Romney on the Daily Show, March 28th, 2011.

Meanwhile, the Thune campaign was lagging but still enthusiastic.
For a not-so-famous senator, Thune was performing better than
some analysts expected. However, he was still the weakest of
the major candidates. Despite the setbacks, Senator Thune still
felt that he could win...if he could just get a little more well-known.



Things were looking better for Obama. Despite worries, there was
no primary challenge, unless negligible bids from Alvin Greene and
Lyndon LaRouche were counted. Hillary Clinton and Dennis Kucinich,
two politicians who some speculated would challenge Obama for
the nomination, both repeatedly said no and came out in
support of Obama's reelection bid.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

On April 3rd, the first primary debates were held, hosted by Wolf Blitzer.
All candidates unsurprisingly criticized the president's agenda, with
opinions ranging from "misguided" (Romney, Johnson) to "radical"
(Gingrich).


A clear rivalry between Governor Romney and Governor
Pawlenty was also shown at the debates. In attempt to take down
the frontrunner, Pawlenty was most critical not of Obama but of
Romney, focusing on the health care bill signed under his governorship
and his flip-flops on social issues. Romney generally responded by
referring to his health care system as "in error". Meanwhile, Barbour
and Gingrich went all out on Obama, with the latter using the word "socialist"
at least three times during the debate.



Thune, the least major of the frontrunners, mostly put his focus
on his small-town charm as an appeal to blue-collar Republicans,
and due to his lack of mudslinging was agreed to do well on the
debate. The token libertarian candidate, former New Mexico
governor Gary Johnson, made a spirited appeal towards his
idea of a more socially liberal and fiscally conservative
Republican party.


FOX/Rasmussen poll: Who won the April 3rd Republican debates?

John Thune, 31%
Tim Pawlenty, 22%
Newt Gingrich, 16%
Mitt Romney, 12%
Gary Johnson, 9%
Haley Barbour, 8%



May 7th, 2011

BREAKING NEWS: SEN. LAUTENBERG DEAD

Veteran senator Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) has died today at his
home at the age of 87. New Jersey governor Chris Christie (R-NJ)
has currently not selected a replacement-the most commonly
speculated replacement is former New Jersey governor and 9/11
Commission chairman Thomas Kean (R-NJ). Another rumor is that his
son, failed Senate candidate Thomas Kean Jr. (R-NJ), will be picked.
A special election is expected to take place in 2012.


Unsurprisingly, Christie selected Thomas Kean Jr. to hold the seat until
the 2012 special election, raising the number of Senate Republicans to
48. Polling, however, showed that he would not last long.

Senate races were gearing up in other states as well. Primary challenges
to moderate Republicans such as Olympia Snowe and Dick Lugar seemed
likely, while in Massachusetts the incumbent Republican Scott Brown
would have to fight an uphill battle for reelection-especially now that
Vicki Kennedy, wife of the late Ted Kennedy (D-MA) had announced
a bid to be the Democratic nominee. Most speculated that she would
win both the primary and the general election with ease.



In Pennsylvania, the reason for former senator Rick Santorum
(R-PA) turning down a presidential bid seemed clear; he wanted
a rematch with Bob Casey. He felt that he could win against Casey
just as Toomey had beat Sestak, even if the opinion polls showed
otherwise.

With the first debate over, most saw that the frontrunners were
those that were already in the race. However, that didn't stop
anyone else from announcing candidacies. Former UN Ambassador
and noted war hawk John Bolton (R-MD) declared his
candidacy on May 1st, to "teach these guys a thing or two
about foreign policy".




Meanwhile, one of the speculated frontrunners, Governor Mike
Huckabee (R-AR) used his show on FOX News to announce that
he would not seek the presidency in 2012, and that he would wait
to endorse a candidate. As Huckabee was stripped off of early
polling, Barbour, Gingrich, and Pawlenty ended up dividing the
Huckabee vote.




Meanwhile, Obama's average approval rating for the month of April
was at 51%. This could be mostly attributed to his handling of the
Republican House, as well as, notably, unemployment now decreasing
and at around 9.2% by the end of the month. Despite Obama's
improved approval ratings, matchups with hypothetical frontrunners
were looking close.

Polling was getting heated up. For the first time in the election Speaker Gingrich
was in 2nd place overall. Romney was still in the lead, though.
To win, Gingrich felt that hehad to deal blows to his record as governor and
flip-flops. Meanwhile,Governor Romney focused on his impressive
economic record while sayingthat he had changed his opinions over
time. Pawlenty, meanwhile, used tactics of both
Gingrich and Romney.



Speaker Gingrich on Good Morning America, May 18th.

South Carolina:

Newt Gingrich, 28%
Haley Barbour, 25%
Tim Pawlenty, 17%
Mitt Romney, 14%
John Thune, 11%

New Hampshire:

Mitt Romney, 38%
Newt Gingrich, 15%
Tim Pawlenty, 14%
John Thune, 11%
Haley Barbour, 6%

Nevada:

Mitt Romney, 49%
John Thune, 14%
Newt Gingrich, 13%
Tim Pawlenty, 12%
Haley Barbour, 7%

Iowa:

Mitt Romney, 31%
Tim Pawlenty, 28%
Newt Gingrich, 15%
John Thune, 12%
Haley Barbour, 9%

Florida:

Mitt Romney, 27%
Newt Gingrich, 24%
Haley Barbour, 17%
Tim Pawlenty, 16%
John Thune, 10%

Nationwide Polling:

Mitt Romney, 29%
Newt Gingrich, 21%
Tim Pawlenty, 18%
Haley Barbour, 13%
John Thune, 12%

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Skipping a few months...

Newt's campaign was falling at the seams. An ad from the Pawlenty
campaign hit him in the sorest of areas-the affairs. Evangelical
support and support in the South was shrinking and going to Barbour
and Pawlenty. In a way, Mitt Romney was also harmed-the fall of
Gingrich would mean less vote-splitting among the base.



At the same time, Newt wanted at least a Tea Party-approvable
conservative to win the nomination, not that flip-flopping aristocrat
from Massachusetts. On December 29th, 2011, Gingrich made the
toughest decision of his life-he would drop out of the campaign.
No endorsement would be made.


Pawlenty was the most overjoyed. Iowa finally slipped into his column
again after months of Romney's plurality in the state, though he was
still behind Romney overall.



Meanwhile, Obama's approval ratings were stagnant despite the boost
earlier in the year. The economy had improved, and unemployment
was down to 7.9%, but his approval rating was hovering with approval
just above disapproval. It was time to hit the campaign trail to stay
one step ahead of Romney and Pawlenty.





IOWA:

Tim Pawlenty-34%
Mitt Romney-26%
John Thune-20%
Haley Barbour-10%
Gary Johnson-6%
John Bolton-2%
Other-2%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Mitt Romney-39%
Tim Pawlenty-23%
John Thune-15%
Gary Johnson-12%
Haley Barbour-6%
John Bolton-3%
Other-2%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Haley Barbour-27%
Mitt Romney-21%
Tim Pawlenty-19%
John Thune-15%
Gary Johnson-12%
John Bolton-5%
Other-1%

NEVADA:

Mitt Romney-56%
Gary Johnson-17%
Tim Pawlenty-16%
John Thune-13%
Haley Barbour-7%
John Bolton-3%
Other-4%

FLORIDA:

Mitt Romney-34%
Haley Barbour-20%
Tim Pawlenty-18%
Gary Johnson-13%
John Thune-8%
John Bolton-3%
Other-4%



Governor Romney in Portsmouth, celebrating his victory in New Hampshire.

With the January primaries over, Governor Romney had taken an early
lead, with Pawlenty lagging behind and, most surprisingly, libertarian
candidate Gary Johnson taking second place in Nevada and performing
as well as John Thune and Haley Barbour in other states.

One speculated frontrunner, Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska, had made
vague hints throughout 2011 of a presidential bid, but now that
seemed next to impossible. The suspicions were confirmed in an
interview with Katie Couric after the South Carolina and Nevada
primaries. Palin announced that she would focus on supporting
Tea Party senate and gubernatorial candidates, while not
making an endorsement in the presidential primaries.



Meanwhile, the Democratic primaries were shaping up as well. President
Obama was unchallenged in every state except South Carolina
(Alvin Greene) and New Hampshire (Lyndon LaRouche), and in those
garnered 95% and 98%, respectively. In Connecticut, Ted Kennedy Jr.
was ahead of Senator Joe Lieberman in Democratic polling by at least
30 points, and given that Lieberman had far less of a base than in 2006,
it looked as if he would lose his Senate seat. If both Vicki and Ted won
both the primaries and the generals, which looked likely, it would
be the first time in which two Kennedys were in the Senate
since 1968.



SUPER TUESDAY


ALABAMA:

Haley Barbour-36%
Tim Pawlenty-25%
Mitt Romney-18%
John Thune-11%
Gary Johnson-5%
John Bolton-3%
Other-3%

CALIFORNIA:

Mitt Romney-39%
Tim Pawlenty-19%
John Thune-15%
Gary Johnson-12%
Haley Barbour-8%
John Bolton-4%
Other-3%

CONNECTICUT:

Mitt Romney-38%
Tim Pawlenty-23%
John Thune-15%
Haley Barbour-10%
Gary Johnson-10%
John Bolton-2%
Other-2%

DELAWARE:

Mitt Romney-32%
Tim Pawlenty-25%
Haley Barbour-18%
John Thune-14%
Gary Johnson-8%
John Bolton-2%
Other-1%

GEORGIA:

Haley Barbour-33%
Mitt Romney-18%
Tim Pawlenty-17%
Gary Johnson-14%
John Thune-13%
John Bolton-3%
Other-2%

MISSOURI:

Tim Pawlenty-28%
Mitt Romney-23%
Haley Barbour-21%
John Thune-15%
Gary Johnson-8%
John Bolton-3%
Other-2%

NEW JERSEY:

Mitt Romney-33%
Tim Pawlenty-25%
John Thune-15%
Gary Johnson-12%
Haley Barbour-9%
John Bolton-2%
Other-3%

NEW YORK:

Mitt Romney-34%
Tim Pawlenty-22%
Gary Johnson-17%
John Thune-16%
Haley Barbour-7%
John Bolton-2%
Other-2%

OKLAHOMA:

Tim Pawlenty-34%
Haley Barbour-25%
Mitt Romney-16%
John Thune-14%
Gary Johnson-6%
John Bolton-3%
Other-2%

TENNESSEE:

Tim Pawlenty-29%
Haley Barbour-27%
Mitt Romney-16%
John Thune-13%
Gary Johnson-11%
John Bolton-2%
Other-3%

UTAH:

Mitt Romney-56%
Tim Pawlenty-13%
John Thune-12%
Gary Johnson-10%
Haley Barbour-6%
John Bolton-2%
Other-1%

Other important primaries:

CONNECTICUT SENATE:

Edward Kennedy Jr.-48%
Joseph Lieberman-28%
Chris Murphy-24%



Sen. Lieberman (I-CT) concedes and denies an independent bid.




Sen. John Thune (R-SD) dropped out after Super Tuesday and endorsed
Tim Pawlenty.

With February over, it became clear that this was a three-way race,
with Romney leading over Pawlenty and Barbour. Due to a surprise endorsement
from Virginia governor Bob McDonnell, Romney had narrowly
won Virginia, while losing only Louisiana (Barbour) after Super Tuesday
and before March.

Meanwhile, progressives rejoiced in Wisconsin. Former senator and
progressive firebrand Russ Feingold had won a landslide victory to replace
retiring senator Herb Kohl. The Republicans had nominated fiscal hawk
congressman Paul Ryan, and Wisconsin, even if it leaned to Obama, had
on itself one of the major Senate battlegrounds.





Even if Romney or Pawlenty or Barbour beat Obama in the general
election, it seemed as if the Senate, despite expectations, would remain
in Democratic hands. In Arizona, former governor and current Secretary
of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano was in a tie with incumbent
senator John Kyl. In Nevada, John Ensign, plagued by a 2009 sex
scandal, was lagging behind former congresswoman Dina Titus in the
polls. In Massachusetts, surprise victor Scott Brown seemed to have
no chance Vicki Kennedy. Though Maine senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
was ahead of all Democratic challengers, she was also behind former
gubernatorial candidate Chandler Woodlock, who in turn was behind
congresswoman Chellie Pingree (D-ME)

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Nice update. Can we see a primary map? Also, I like how the Kennedys are getting back into politics, though I want Brown to win in MA (unlikely).

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'll get a primary map at the end.

[Niemeyerite]

=) I really like this TL continue, please

[feeblepizza]

This is an okay TL, my friend

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

ROMNEY WINS NOMINATION



So rang the headlines. Though the primaries were not officially over, and
although several candidates, most importantly Gary Johnson, were still
in the race, Barbour's dropping out in March and Pawlenty in May were
clear victories for Governor Romney, who seemed likely to gain the
nomination after winning Pennsylvania in April, while sealing the deal
by winning in Indiana, capturing a majority of delegates needed to win.


 
 
Now that the primaries were won, Mitt needed to switch gears to take on
Obama. To start off, he'd make visits to Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, all key
swing states. To win, he needed to take back at least two. Though polling
showed Obama with an electoral majority, he had six months to change that.

Map as of 5/15/12:

Meanwhile, a major victory for the economy had occured; unemployment
was finally below 7%. With the symbolic news, Obama's approval ratings
briefly shot up to 58% before settling at around 52%. Meanwhile,
with Obama being more perceived as taking on the House Republicans,
the progressive wing of the party was getting riled up, and even
left-wing critics of the administration such as Russ Feingold and Dennis
Kucinich were actively campaigning with the president.


Though it was a bit early, the Romney campaign was already throwing
around several possible running mates. Proposed names were all seen
as having positive and negative consequences. According to leaks, some
proposed VP picks included:

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)



PROS: moderate, bipartisan appeal, could get the female vote
CONS: known opponent of the Tea Party, unpopular with GOP base

Gov. Piyush "Bobby" Jindal (R-LA)


PROS: popular governor, young, charismatic, fiscal hawk
CONS: only one term so far, could he backfire like Palin?

Gov. Bob McDonnell (R-VA)



PROS: popular governor, from a swing state
CONS: Confederate History Month proposal

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)



PROS: appealing to the base, young, charismatic, from a swing state
CONS: inexperienced, TP connections could turn off swing voters

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)



PROS: strong economic credentials, from a swing state
CONS: inexperienced

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)



PROS: experienced, strong leadership position
CONS: part of the establishment, enemy of the TP

Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN)



PROS: economic credentials, popular governor, from a swing state
CONS: too soft on social issues?

Eventually, Murkowski, Cornyn, and Portman were eliminated, creating a
shortlist of Jindal, Daniels, McDonnell, and Rubio. Despite rumors of Vice
President Biden being replaced on the ticket, it was made clear in April
that Joe Biden would indeed remain Obama's running mate.

The campaign blitz had begun. Obama and Romney began touring
every swing state and even most of the somewhat competitive ones.
In Ohio alone, Obama had visited the state 6 times and Romney 7.
The Romney campaign also spent heavy time in New Hampshire,
figuring that a candidate from New England could flip the Democratic-leaning
state. In a move intended to keep North Carolina in the
Obama camp, the DNC would be held in Charlotte, NC.




Romney meets with Sen. Rubio (R-FL) at a campaign stop in
Jacksonville, June 8th.





Obama campaigning with Sen. Bennet (D-CO) in Denver,
May 22nd.

SWING STATE UPDATE:

If the election were to be held today, which candidate would you vote
for?


Ohio:

Barack Obama, 43%
Mitt Romney, 41%

Florida:

Mitt Romney, 44%
Barack Obama, 42%

Montana:

Mitt Romney, 48%
Barack Obama, 42%

Arizona:

Mitt Romney, 49%
Barack Obama, 44%

Virginia:

Barack Obama, 46%
Mitt Romney, 42%

Colorado:

Barack Obama, 47%
Mitt Romney, 43%

North Carolina:

Mitt Romney, 46%
Barack Obama, 45%

Iowa:

Barack Obama, 45%
Mitt Romney, 41%

New Hampshire:

Barack Obama, 48%
Mitt Romney, 43%

Pennsylvania:

Barack Obama, 50%
Mitt Romney, 44%

Nevada:

Barack Obama, 45%
Mitt Romney, 44%

Missouri:

Barack Obama, 43%
Mitt Romney, 42%

Indiana:

Barack Obama, 44%
Mitt Romney, 43%

If polling like this kept up, Romney knew that he would fare little better
than McCain. He needed something to save his campaign-something
to take back the country by storm. But was anything enough? He'd
have to try and see.



The Obama campaign may have been sleepless from travels in Florida
and Nevada and Ohio, but they were still confident. The 6.9%
unemployment was a dip-by the middle of July, it was again at
7.1%, while seemingly hopping back and forth past the 7% mark
every day. Economic confidence, though still low, was the highest
in years. Obama's approval rating was steady at around 53%.



The President campaigns in Indiana, July 19th.

[Niemeyerite]

ROmney will pick Daniels, IMO. he would help Mitt a lot in Indiana, Missouri, Iowa and Ohio.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Senate prospects were looking even worse for the Republicans.
In Wisconsin, fiscal hawk Paul Ryan was narrowly losing to former
senator Russ Feingold, who had focused on a campaign of attacking
fiscal conservatism at its roots. Olympia Snowe had lost in Maine to
Tea Party-backed Chandler Woodcock, who was now behind
the Democrat, Chellie Pingree. Rumors, however, said that
Snowe would run as an independent. John Ensign, meanwhile,
was as good as gone. The only likely Republican pickup seemed
to be of Ben Nelson's seat in Nebraska, where Governor Dave
Heineman was decisively leading Nelson in the polls.



Though the two main candidates were of course Obama and Romney,
there were, as usual, numerous third-party candidates. Jello
Biafra, lead singer of the Dead Kennedys, had gotten the Green
Party nomination. Meanwhile, the Libertarians had nominated
businessman Wayne Allyn Root of Nevada for president. With
a well-known candidate for the Greens, the Romney
campaign hoped that vote-splitting could help them slip
through in several battleground states.



Despite the fact that most pundits predicted that Governor Romney would
pick either Marco Rubio or Mitch Daniels as his running mate, Mitt Romney
nominated Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA) for the VP slot. The explanation
seemed reasonable-Romney, being a New England Mormon, needed to
balance the ticket with a Southerner, who while not a Tea Partier
was popular with them.



Though Obama was leading in the polls against Romney, you'd never know
it from the Republican National Convention in Tampa. Enthusiasm was
high, with notable speeches from Chris Christie, Rick Perry, and Sarah
Palin, the latter of which was heavily parodied.

But the keynote was saved for Governor Jindal. The fiery fiscal
conservative received heavy media attention for his speech focusing
on the deficit and spending cuts. Many right-wing pundits even
compared the speech to that of Obama's 2004 keynote. Jindal
later criticized such comparisons, stating that "I'm a separate person,
not the Republican Obama." Other notable speakers included
Ann Romney, John Thune, Newt Gingrich, John McCain, and of course
Mitt Romney.



The Democratic National Convention in Charlotte was equally enthusiastic.
Opening and closing up with a speech from President Obama, notable speeches
also came from Bill and Hillary Clinton, Jerry Brown, and
Claire McCaskill. Like with the Republican Convention, however,
much of the attention was devoted to the keynote speaker.

Vicki Kennedy, running for Scott Brown's seat in Massachusetts, was
that speaker. The speech was generally seen as a warm tribute to progressivism
and to her late husband who once held the seat. Ted Kennedy's son, running for Senate in
Connecticut having defeated Joe Lieberman in the primaries, also gave a speech which
garnered heavy media attention.



FAVORABILITY RATINGS AS OF SEPTEMBER 1ST, 2012:

Mitt Romney:

44% favorable
41% unfavorable

Barack Obama:

51% favorable
45% unfavorable

Joe Biden:

55% favorable
40% unfavorable

Bobby Jindal:

50% favorable
39% unfavorable

The main focus was of course on states like Florida, Ohio, and Nevada,
but both Obama and Romney were stretching into other states which
were traditionally won by the other party. Mitt Romney had his eye
on Michigan; though a Democratic-leaning state which Obama easily
carried in 2008, Mitt Romney was born in the state, and his father
was the governor there. Meanwhile, Obama was campaigning
surprisingly heavily with a get-out-the-vote campaign for black voters
in the somewhat competitive state of Georgia; it still leaned to Romney,
but looked more and more like another tossup.



President Obama addresses supporters in Atlanta-August 19th.

Shown: FiveThirtyEight ratings of states based on the likelihood of either candidate winning the state.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Also, here's the primary map. Green is Romney, blue is Barbour, red is T-Paw.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

What's the economy like? I'm looking for a reason Obama seems to be polling ahead of Romney. Also, the polling map for the general is very depressing. Romney's not even ahead in Indiana. I'm hoping the Republicans can pull ahead of Obama as the season goes on.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Unemployment's at 7%, give or take a couple .#s. Economic growth is pretty much "meh", but better than it is now.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The first of the three presidential debates focused on the economy and
domestic policy, and was held in New Orleans on September 19th. Obama
had taken a strong defense of his policies, focusing on the fact that unemployment
was the lowest since before his inauguration-7.1%-and
that the economy was growing in part due to the stimulus passed in 2009. Romney
rebuked the last part, stating that the economic stimulus was "a reckless bill which,
if anything, slowed down the economic recovery". However, the most notable part
of the debate was on health care. Obama took a step back, stating that the Democratic
leadership, including himself, should have gone farther with the bill,
while criticizing Governor Romney's hypocricy on the bill, pointing out
various similarities between it and the health care reform passed while
Romney was the governor of Massachusetts. With Romney only barely
scrambling together an answer, the debate was considered a decisive
victory for the President.




Politico Poll: Who won the presidential debate between President Obama and Governor Romney?

Obama, 54%
Romney, 37%

Meanwhile, the vice presidential debate between Governor
Bobby Jindal and Vice President Joe Biden occured on October 6th,
2012, in Cincinnati. Facing a more competent opponent than Sarah Palin,
Biden would pull no punches-but neither would Jindal. Though Biden was
arguably more powerful in this debate, Bobby's intelligence and charm
managed to make the debate a Republican victory, if a narrow one.



CNN Poll: Who won the Vice Presidential Debate between Joe Biden
and Bobby Jindal?

Jindal, 44%
Biden, 37%


The second presidential debate was of a similar format to the first,
held in Houston on October 11th. The debate mostly focused on
foreign policy, especially the war in Afghanistan. With limited forces
still in Afghanistan, and the Taliban still holding on to small pockets,
the President promised victory in and withdrawal Afghanistan by 2014;
Mitt Romney refused to state a withdrawal date. On Iran, Obama expressed
a wish to continue but not tighten sanctions, while Romney came out in support
of sanctions but stopped short of military action against Iran. In most eyes, this
would be considered the closest of the three presidential debates, with most polls
showing a statistical tie between Romney and Obama.



CNN Poll: Who won the second presidential debate between
President Obama and Governor Romney?

Obama, 42%
Romney, 40%

The third and final presidential debate was a town hall-style debate in
Richmond, with no particular focus on any issue. Widely considered
to be the most unremarkable of the debates, the final debate before
Election Night was widely considered to be a narrow Obama victory,
albeit a dull one.



Politico Poll: Who won the final presidential debate between
President Obama and Governor Romney?

Obama, 48%
Romney, 39%

Next up: Election night!

[Progressive]

I almost feel like Jindal overshadows Romney. Regardless, pretty cool TL

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Before the biggie...

FINAL 2012 STATE RATINGS:

Obama: 274
Romney: 149
Tossup: 115

[Niemeyerite]

Go Obama, Goooo!

[feeblepizza]

Go Romney! Hopefully he'll die or be impeached and Jindal can become President .

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Hopefully he'll [Romney] die

This sounds disturbing even in context.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

In my opinion, pieces of the South shouldn't be so up for grabs, what with Jindal on the GOP ticket and the Dem ticket lacking southerners. Also, I'd think that Nevada, with its Mormon population, would go Republican. However, I don't know how much the Mormon population holds sway over the state as a whole.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

It's justified-I'll explain it after the election results, since it's a bit long.

As for Nevada-remember that Romney is to the right of McCain on immigration, and McCain still lost NV, CO, etc, though that's also because he ignored those states and hoped for a hail Mary pass in Pennsylvania. The Mormon influence in conjunction with actually campaigning in Nevada helps Romney, though that's counterbalanced by the all-important Hispanic vote.