US House Redistricting: Michigan

[Torie]

You could do a whole district in Macomb regardless, although the lack of one in 2000 does indicate that they won't bother this time, either. If they do try to leave a whole seat in Macomb, it would contain everything but Eastpointe, Center Line and most of Warren, which either go in a Detroit CD or in a Macomb-Oakland Dem CD.

Strictly speaking, there's no need for a black district to cross into either Macomb or Oakland counties; I managed two districts barely over 50% black VAP in Wayne County alone.

If you have to slash and burn in Wayne (chopping up cities, to get there), and one can make a nicer map jutting into Macomb, then voila, a cut into Macomb will be legal. Isn't that grand?  But how in the world did you get two black CD's out of Wayne alone?  That surely is impossible, without using all those black precincts in southern Oakland. The point of course is to draw a Pubbie gerrymander that is legal, because the Pubbies are drawing the map, not you.

[Verily]

Sure, but no Republican (or Democratic, for that matter) legislature in any state is going to be as aggressive as you are, Torie. There are other considerations than partisanship, after all (however logical or illogical they may be).

[krazen1211]

Oh God, I am getting an orgasm over that map. Perfecto! That is just what I wanted to see.

If the pubbies can cross 1 black district into Oakland, and 1 into Macomb, this becomes very easy. If you can cross into 1 or the other, better to cross into Macomb, and plop a full CD in Oakland.

What kind of 2 district plan in Wayne alone has 50% black VAP on both districts? Please post! Like Torie said better an additional county crossing than a slash and burn.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[muon2]

Oh God, I am getting an orgasm over that map. Perfecto! That is just what I wanted to see.

If the pubbies can cross 1 black district into Oakland, and 1 into Macomb, this becomes very easy. If you can cross into 1 or the other, better to cross into Macomb, and plop a full CD in Oakland.

What kind of 2 district plan in Wayne alone has 50% black VAP on both districts? Please post! Like Torie said better an additional county crossing than a slash and burn.

I just checked, and I was able to make two 50% Black VAP districts in Wayne alone. They are both just barely over 50% and follow city lines as needed. However, I like the idea of reaching the two districts separately into Macomb and Oakland as I suggested last Sep.

[krazen1211]

I just checked, and I was able to make two 50% Black VAP districts in Wayne alone. They are both just barely over 50% and follow city lines as needed. However, I like the idea of reaching the two districts separately into Macomb and Oakland as I suggested last Sep.

Can you cross a black district into Oakland while also crossing the McCotter district into Oakland?

[Torie]

Oh God, I am getting an orgasm over that map. Perfecto! That is just what I wanted to see.

If the pubbies can cross 1 black district into Oakland, and 1 into Macomb, this becomes very easy. If you can cross into 1 or the other, better to cross into Macomb, and plop a full CD in Oakland.

What kind of 2 district plan in Wayne alone has 50% black VAP on both districts? Please post! Like Torie said better an additional county crossing than a slash and burn.

I just checked, and I was able to make two 50% Black VAP districts in Wayne alone. They are both just barely over 50% and follow city lines as needed. However, I like the idea of reaching the two districts separately into Macomb and Oakland as I suggested last Sep.

Yes, but is it legal? Of course, that will facilitate a better Pubbie Gerry - if it is legal. What you just posted worries me. What does the map look like?

[muon2]

Oh God, I am getting an orgasm over that map. Perfecto! That is just what I wanted to see.

If the pubbies can cross 1 black district into Oakland, and 1 into Macomb, this becomes very easy. If you can cross into 1 or the other, better to cross into Macomb, and plop a full CD in Oakland.

What kind of 2 district plan in Wayne alone has 50% black VAP on both districts? Please post! Like Torie said better an additional county crossing than a slash and burn.

I just checked, and I was able to make two 50% Black VAP districts in Wayne alone. They are both just barely over 50% and follow city lines as needed. However, I like the idea of reaching the two districts separately into Macomb and Oakland as I suggested last Sep.

Yes, but is it legal? Of course, that will facilitate a better Pubbie Gerry - if it is legal. What you just posted worries me. What does the map look like?

Which statement worries you? If it is the first - then here's the map I drew for Wayne.



On the second point, to make the map legal depends on the value of putting parts of Macomb with Wayne vs reaching the Macomb district into the Grosse Pointes. It looked to me last fall that the former was better, but you have better precinct numbers now.

[krazen1211]

Which statement worries you? If it is the first - then here's the map I drew for Wayne.



On the second point, to make the map legal depends on the value of putting parts of Macomb with Wayne vs reaching the Macomb district into the Grosse Pointes. It looked to me last fall that the former was better, but you have better precinct numbers now.

How do you remove Monroe County from the Dingell district with that map?

[Torie]

Muon2, with that map, if the Dingell CD took all the rest of Wayne except the points, still have a shortage of population after taking all of Wastenaw?  Will one of the black CD's fall below 50% black VAP if it takes in all of the Pointes?

[Brittain33]

Now, this is interesting. Joe Knollenberg's son, Rep. Marty Knollenberg, sits on a redistricting committee in the legislature.

[Sbane]

Why the need for two districts reaching up into the suburbs? As long as the Black parts of Oakland County are in one of those districts, it can also pick up a chunk of Macomb and then the rest is composed of Detroit. So only one Black district goes into the suburbs, as well as Mcotter's.

[krazen1211]

On the second point, to make the map legal depends on the value of putting parts of Macomb with Wayne vs reaching the Macomb district into the Grosse Pointes. It looked to me last fall that the former was better, but you have better precinct numbers now.

It looks like this map has 2 cities split between CD-13 and CD-14 (Detroit and Dearborn Heights), and 2 cities split between CD-14 and CD-9 (Southgate and Lincoln Park).

I guess county crossings do take priority over township crossings in the statute though.

[krazen1211]

Why the need for two districts reaching up into the suburbs? As long as the Black parts of Oakland County are in one of those districts, it can also pick up a chunk of Macomb and then the rest is composed of Detroit. So only one Black district goes into the suburbs, as well as Mcotter's.

I don't  think that works too well. For one, that kind of district obviously crosses 3 counties. Second, the Macomb portion has to be about 200k people (Warren + Eastpointe + a couple other towns), and when you tack on Southfield + Pontiac + other in the way towns, what exactly do you do with places that are lean Dem (Farmington, Auburn Hills)?

Earlier I posted the map of only crossing into Macomb; this is what happens when you cross only into
Oakland. The good news is that both districts cross 55% black VAP which often people like Conyers want; it also gives Dearborn back to its rightful owner.

 The bad news is that the skyblue district (12) is 65k people short and I have no idea where to move it, and that McCotter's district becomes Oakland County dominated which he may not want.

Dumping the Pointes into a Dem district would solve that problem, but the GOP probably doesn't want to do that; I have to look up the areas surrounding Ann Arbor and see how liberal they are (Pittsfield).

[minionofmidas]

Whee, that salmon district is ugly. Besides, aren't you conceding the Dems an extra 0.5 seats compared to Torie's old map? Or is the Flint/Saginaw district unnecessary now?

[krazen1211]

Whee, that salmon district is ugly. Besides, aren't you conceding the Dems an extra 0.5 seats compared to Torie's old map? Or is the Flint/Saginaw district unnecessary now?

No, Flint/Saginaw/Lansing remains the same, so yeah, it does concede a 5th seat, at least under this configuration. That 12th district would be Democratic; I suspect though that between the green and pink districts taking on some more Democrats, that blue 12th could become a tossup (perhaps for Knollenberg Jr)? I would put West Bloomfield into the green 11th, and some of Mount Clemonts/Roseville into the 10th, and put Troy and some north Oakland areas into the 12th).

The salmon district is split ugly like that with the gold district to even out the black %. Those districts are 55.6/56% AA. If Conyers want to grab a 60% AA district and shaft Clarke by giving him only 50-51% AA, the split becomes cleaner.


I think though its important that the Macomb district not be marginal. Candace Miller has more ties to Macomb than the rest of the thumb, and I presume she would run in the Macomb dominated district.

[minionofmidas]

The salmon district is split ugly like that with the gold district to even out the black %. Those districts are 55.6/56% AA. If Conyers want to grab a 60% AA district and shaft Clarke by giving him only 50-51% AA, the split becomes cleaner.

Go for it. Clarke comes to those new White voters with a reformist, clean (if flaky farleft ) dragonslayer reputation. White Liberals will love to vote for the guy.

[Sbane]

Ah yes districts can't traverse 3 counties for no reason. In that case 2 districts will need to go into the suburbs. The district that gets macomb gets more of Detroit and vice versa. I do believe it is important that no one other than Dingell or mcotter gets parts of Wayne so you are limited in how much population in the suburbs you can put in the Dem pack.

Also is washtenaw pretty Republican outside ann arbor? I find krazens map to be intriguing. You can make it look nicer but he has the right idea.

[Brittain33]

Also is washtenaw pretty Republican outside ann arbor? I find krazens map to be intriguing. You can make it look nicer but he has the right idea.

It just can't be that Republican... AA has only 1/3 of the county's population but the county votes almost as Democratic as Wayne does, or at least it did in 2008. Putting the rest of Washtenaw and Monroe in the 7th district could make Walberg's job tougher.

[krazen1211]

Also is washtenaw pretty Republican outside ann arbor? I find krazens map to be intriguing. You can make it look nicer but he has the right idea.

It just can't be that Republican... AA has only 1/3 of the county's population but the county votes almost as Democratic as Wayne does, or at least it did in 2008. Putting the rest of Washtenaw and Monroe in the 7th district could make Walberg's job tougher.

Monroe isn't too bad; in 2010 they voted against Dingell pretty heavily, so they're at least willing to contemplate voting Republican.

In 2010, Washtentaw voted for Dingell 55k to 25k; Ann Arbor provided 20k of that margin. Ypilsanti provided another 8k; the rest of it could be moved to the 7h somewhat safely.


Here is the Muon-2 map; where both black districts enter the suburban counties.





There could be too many county splits here, and McCotter and Miller get some more Dem territory, but the 12th (skyblue) becomes a district that Knollenberg Jr. could do somewhat well in.

At least 1 county split could easily be eliminated that I see.

[muon2]

Muon2, with that map, if the Dingell CD took all the rest of Wayne except the points, still have a shortage of population after taking all of Wastenaw? 

A complete district that linked the Livonia corner to the south Wayne area would use the eastern 3/5 of Washtenaw and the northern tier of townships in Monroe. One could swap some of Washtenaw's rural townships out and extend into the city of Monroe.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Combining enough precincts to make two districts in Wayne cannot exceed 50.1% black VAP. Thus there's no wiggle room to add the Pointes without dropping a district below 50%. The splits of towns within Wayne was the minimum I could find that kept both above 50%. It's extremely tight.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Also is washtenaw pretty Republican outside ann arbor? I find krazens map to be intriguing. You can make it look nicer but he has the right idea.

This is a map of the 2004 Presidential election results for Washtenaw County.

[krazen1211]

Whee, that salmon district is ugly. Besides, aren't you conceding the Dems an extra 0.5 seats compared to Torie's old map? Or is the Flint/Saginaw district unnecessary now?

I might add that suburban black population has exploded in places like Farmington Hills, Warren, and Roseville in the last decade even as the overall population has declined, and the white population here has plummeted. Overall, it seems worth it to concede a 4th district in the Detroit metro if you can keep those areas out of a Republican district.

Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered, right?

I took your advice and cleaned up the CD-13/14 split.



CD-13 is down to 51.1% black VAP, CD-14 is up to 60.6%. Sander Levin can easily clean up in the new CD-12 (sky blue) although he can't act like a crazy liberal by any means. Truthfully given his seniority the Michigan GOP probably shouldn't take a shot in the dark and try to get rid of him, anyway.

[Torie]

Muon2, with that map, if the Dingell CD took all the rest of Wayne except the points, still have a shortage of population after taking all of Wastenaw? 

A complete district that linked the Livonia corner to the south Wayne area would use the eastern 3/5 of Washtenaw and the northern tier of townships in Monroe. One could swap some of Washtenaw's rural townships out and extend into the city of Monroe.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Combining enough precincts to make two districts in Wayne cannot exceed 50.1% black VAP. Thus there's no wiggle room to add the Pointes without dropping a district below 50%. The splits of towns within Wayne was the minimum I could find that kept both above 50%. It's extremely tight.

OK, if you have to down town splits, and county splits, to get your two 50% black VAP CD's, then the Pubbies have a hunting license to go anywhere in the Detroit metro area, without violating Michigan law. I should be able to take MI-12 out of the marginal zone, or close to it. So the Dems are going to lose two congressmen in both Ohio and Michigan it looks like.

By the way, Brian Lamb had some black opinion columnist who works for the NY Times, who was on last night on CSPAN. He got his feet wet working for the Detroit News, and what he said about Detroit was sobering. There are no appliance stores in Detroit (yes, none!) because it is too dangerous (presumably a store owner can't get insurance), and the office buildings are a Potemkin Village - most are empty - and unrentable. Very sad indeed.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I don't normally read Swing State Project, but I've started to look a little bit at some of their redistricting threads, and it seems to be the opinion over there that the Michigan law prohibits two districts from crossing over the same pair of counties. Notice that the current map does abide by this constraint - while there are lots of county splits that might seem unnecessary from a certain angle, there is no pair of counties which both have the same two districts in them.

Does anyone have any evidence as to whether this is how things are actually interpreted in Lansing? If it is, then contrary to what we have been assuming, you can't have two districts in both Wayne and Oakland, one for McCotter and one for Conyers or Clarke.

[krazen1211]

I don't normally read Swing State Project, but I've started to look a little bit at some of their redistricting threads, and it seems to be the opinion over there that the Michigan law prohibits two districts from crossing over the same pair of counties. Notice that the current map does abide by this constraint - while there are lots of county splits that might seem unnecessary from a certain angle, there is no pair of counties which both have the same two districts in them.

Does anyone have any evidence as to whether this is how things are actually interpreted in Lansing? If it is, then contrary to what we have been assuming, you can't have two districts in both Wayne and Oakland, one for McCotter and one for Conyers or Clarke.

I actually expect that part of the statute to be amended to allow for such in Wayne County, if its needed, mostly because 2 districts entirely in Wayne are almost certain not to be majority black by the end of the decade. Heck, they might not even be majority black now.