Edwards '08 and the South

[Ben.]

Edwards is put on the Democratic ticket in 2004 and pundits wanted us to believe that suddenly southern states like Virginia and North Carolina - two big electoral prizes south of the Mason-Dixon - were in play.

In the end, Bush won Virginia by 8 points (just as he did in 2000) and he actually increased his lead in NC this year. The Kerry-Edwards ticket - just like the Gore-Lieberman team- suffered a 15 point defeat in the Tar Heel state. West Virginia was a state that many felt would go to Kerry with or without Edwards on the ticket. Edwards was selected and almost everyone agreed that this would only help. In the end, Bush won the state by 13 points - 7 points better than 2000.

My point: Isn't it alittle much to assume that the south will be in play if Edwards is the Presidential candidate in '08? The same thing with Governor Warner of Virginia. We heard this talk back in July. "Oh a southern on the ticket...put that state, that state and yeah that one too as tossups."When all was said and done, the Kerry-Edwards actually did worse in the south than Gore-Lieberman. So as I asked before, isn't it alittle much to think that the south will be in play if a southern is on the ticket?

I'd agree Edwards' voting record was pretty darn liberal for a southern senator and he really was an "empty suite"... Mark Warner is far more substantial but he should look to make a Senate run be it against Allen in 2006 or if Warner retires in 2008, Warner would be a far better "southern candidate" and particularly in a race with George W Bush, who is a very good "southern candidate"... Edwards should just go back to NC and network like hell for four years and then look to make a run for governor in 2008 and stick at it! as FDR did in NY, doubt he'll take my advice though, after four years of doing squat he'll be a much less competitive candidate IMHO and that will be true in the primaries as well as if he actually got the nod, and if the likes of Bayh and Warner run i think it would be unlikely that Edwards would get the nomination anyway.  

[Ben.]

Retire from what, exactly, in 2008? His gubernatorial term ends in 2005, and I believe he is not allowed to run for reelection. Were he elected senator in '06 the term would last till 2012.

I was referring to John Warner, the senior senator, who could well retire in 2008 and thus allow Warner to make a clean run for the senate and in such a race he would probably win, against Allen in 2006 however it would be tougher that said it would still be a very competitive race.

My view is that Warner isn't ready, despite a very solid record as VA Governor but he needs more experience IMHO and so a Senate run would make sense, I don't think he's ready for a presidential run and should serve at least a term as a Senator.

As for Edwards he should give up the idea that he could win in 2008, after four years of doing squat, he should intend look to recasting himself and making a run for governor in 2008.