US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Then again, previous to 2010 both chambers were Democratic due to gerrymandering, and depressed GOP turnout in 2006, and 2008.

To be perfectly honest with you, I'm trying to remain cordial, but it does frustrate me when you seem to think your own understanding of NC politics is more informed or of greater value than that of an actual resident.

I think you're learning why most regular posters here have him on ignore.

[Miles]

Then again, previous to 2010 both chambers were Democratic due to gerrymandering, and depressed GOP turnout in 2006, and 2008.

To be perfectly honest with you, I'm trying to remain cordial, but it does frustrate me when you seem to think your own understanding of NC politics is more informed or of greater value than that of an actual resident.

I think you're learning why most regular posters here have him on ignore.

Yep!

Ahh...there we go, much better!

[JacobNC]

Worth noting:

McIntyre & Etheridge both got around 70% in 2002 and 2004, good Republican years.  It would be difficult for Etheridge to mount a comeback now, since he's voted for Obamacare and beat up kids on the sidewalk; but McIntyre still has a good chance of winning.  Especially against Ilario Pantano.

Kissell has a good chance of holding on too.  The 8th is a very blue-collar area, and Democrats have an edge in voter registration.

In other news, I should respect Mel Watt for standing up for other North Carolina Democrats after the Republicans gave him a 78% Obama district:

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[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Worth noting:

McIntyre & Etheridge both got around 70% in 2002 and 2004, good Republican years.  It would be difficult for Etheridge to mount a comeback now, since he's voted for Obamacare and beat up kids on the sidewalk; but McIntyre still has a good chance of winning.  Especially against Ilario Pantano.

Kissell has a good chance of holding on too.  The 8th is a very blue-collar area, and Democrats have an edge in voter registration.

In other news, I should respect Mel Watt for standing up for other North Carolina Democrats after the Republicans gave him a 78% Obama district:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I am sure you can find several white Dems in the South that won with 70%, in Bush districts, in years like 2004 and 2002. Bud Cramer, John Tanner, maybe even Bart Gordon and some of the AR Dems.

[Miles]

Worth noting:

McIntyre & Etheridge both got around 70% in 2002 and 2004, good Republican years.  It would be difficult for Etheridge to mount a comeback now, since he's voted for Obamacare and beat up kids on the sidewalk; but McIntyre still has a good chance of winning.  Especially against Ilario Pantano.

Kissell has a good chance of holding on too.  The 8th is a very blue-collar area, and Democrats have an edge in voter registration.

In other news, I should respect Mel Watt for standing up for other North Carolina Democrats after the Republicans gave him a 78% Obama district:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wish Lacy Clay and Emmanuel Cleaver acted more like Mel Watt.

I agree about Kissell and McIntrye.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Kissell is definately no lightweight and if the GOP is going to defeat him, they better have a serious candidate. Not some sports reporter or an escapee from the nut house (the crazy man who spent millions only to loose the primary once people realized how crazy he was).

McIntyre will probably hang on, inspite of the changes, but his voting record might drift more conservative.

Etheridge is finished, as is Miller. Shuler really got hammered in the line drawing, which is a shame since he is my favorite Democrat presently. He probably takes the job in TN. He is probably the only one that could hold that seat though and I wouldn't be surprised if he did somehow, but he will never be safe and, especially if Obama is reelected, he will probably be DOA in 2014.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I had an idea as a recourse to solve the problem with the 13th should the Daily Kos article prove right about a Durham connection being required. But alas, loading version 2.2 of the App is impossible. I spent nearly 2 hours trying to load NC, two days ago.

[Miles]

I've heard that the new map might not even go into effect until 2014 because of the lawsuits.

Miller: Yep, he's toast. They cut off his arm to the liberal areas of Greensboro and he's too liberal to win in a 56% McCain district. His best scenario would be running in the new 4th if Price retires.

Shuler: Lets remember that, even last year, he did well in counties outside of Buncombe. He know how to win in conservative counties, but his new counties (Caldwell, Buerke, Avery, Mitchell) don't even vote Democrat on the statewide level. I though Shuler would be a good Burr challenger in 2014. I really don't blame him if he takes the UT job though....

McIntyre: Ilario Pantano will put up a tough fight, no question about that. He kinda reminds me of the Italian version of Marco Rubio. McIntyre is going to have to perform better in Pender, Brunswick and even New Hanover to make up for the addition of Onslow and most of Carteret. I'd say the chances of McIntyre surviving are about 70%. My calculations showed that he would have  narrowly won his new district last year.

Kissell: Kissell's formula for winning will be pretty simple: run up his margins in his existing territory and control the bleeding in Rowan, Davidson and Randolph. A state representative, Jerry Dockham's name was floated as a Kissell challenger. If the GOP nominee is Dockham, I'll be pretty happy....
http://www.ncleg.net/gascripts/members/viewMember.pl?sChamber=H&nUserID=33

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The funny things is that - for once - he isn't entirely wrong in questioning assumptions about electoral movement in NC that have become the orthodoxy here.

[minionofmidas]

Shuler: ... his new counties (... Avery, Mitchell) don't even vote Democrat on the statewide level.

Understatement much?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I've heard that the new map might not even go into effect until 2014 because of the lawsuits.

Some of the litigated maps in the 1990's remained in a effect for few elections. Though you would have to see details to see if the lawsuits actually took that long or whether they started them after the elections had occured. If they took that long, there would be precedent for leaving the litigated map in place till the case is decided. The Texas Delay map was in place for 2004 elections, though I don't know when the lawsuit that forced changes in the 23rd started.

[krazen1211]

The funny things is that - for once - he isn't entirely wrong in questioning assumptions about electoral movement in NC that have become the orthodoxy here.

Job growth has stalled in North Carolina. One wonders why these massive groups of Yankees would be moving there nowadays.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The funny things is that - for once - he isn't entirely wrong in questioning assumptions about electoral movement in NC that have become the orthodoxy here.

Job growth has stalled in North Carolina. One wonders why these massive groups of Yankees would be moving there nowadays.

I am certainly wondering why I moved here. 2002 was a different world though.

[Miles]

The funny things is that - for once - he isn't entirely wrong in questioning assumptions about electoral movement in NC that have become the orthodoxy here.

Job growth has stalled in North Carolina. One wonders why these massive groups of Yankees would be moving there nowadays.

2002 was a different world though.

Thats about the time I moved up to NC!

[Miles]

Shuler: ... his new counties (... Avery, Mitchell) don't even vote Democrat on the statewide level.

Understatement much?

Yep...even looking at a good year like 2008:

-Perdue lost all 4 of them
-Marshall barely carried Burke but lost the other 3
-Dalton lost all 4
-Even Cooper lost 3 of them

[nclib]

I've heard that the new map might not even go into effect until 2014 because of the lawsuits.

Some of the litigated maps in the 1990's remained in a effect for few elections. Though you would have to see details to see if the lawsuits actually took that long or whether they started them after the elections had occured. If they took that long, there would be precedent for leaving the litigated map in place till the case is decided. The Texas Delay map was in place for 2004 elections, though I don't know when the lawsuit that forced changes in the 23rd started.

If Miles is correct, would a (non-partisan) court-drawn map take place in 2012?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I've heard that the new map might not even go into effect until 2014 because of the lawsuits.

Some of the litigated maps in the 1990's remained in a effect for few elections. Though you would have to see details to see if the lawsuits actually took that long or whether they started them after the elections had occured. If they took that long, there would be precedent for leaving the litigated map in place till the case is decided. The Texas Delay map was in place for 2004 elections, though I don't know when the lawsuit that forced changes in the 23rd started.

If Miles is correct, would a (non-partisan) court-drawn map take place in 2012?

It depends on how long the courts take to litigate the matter and then whether or not the courts redraw the maps temporarily to deal with 2012 or let the new map be implemented till the case is finished. Because I don't think they can use the 2002 lines in 2012. This is why I suggested looking for precedent on this matter and then consider likilihood of shifts in the court's composition changing the decision.

[Dancing with Myself]

Oh great, I'm now stuck in the district with that douche Miller.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Oh great, I'm now stuck in the district with that douche Miller.

Yeah, but you'll feel happy when you get to vote that "douche" Miller out of office.

[Dancing with Myself]

Oh great, I'm now stuck in the district with that douche Miller.

Yeah, but you'll feel happy when you get to vote that "douche" Miller out of office.

Oh yes, I'm already getting excited about it

[minionofmidas]

Shuler: ... his new counties (... Avery, Mitchell) don't even vote Democrat on the statewide level.

Understatement much?

Yep...even looking at a good year like 2008:

Only once in the last 50 years has a Republican Presidential candidate received less than 60% of the vote in Avery County - and that was with Ross Perot splitting the opposition. It has not happened in Mitchell County. I suppose the pattern actually holds all the way back to 1868, though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maps for the General Assembly will be released sometime today, according to local news reports. Don't know when though.

[minionofmidas]

Playing around with the 1st district... the best I could get it to without going into Raleigh or Durham or Chapel Hill or Greensboro or Fayetteville or Wilmington or forcing the 3rd into Wilmington is 49.7-40.8 total, 48.5-43.8 VAP, 63.6 Obama. The split between the first and third is not particularly clean, but a lot cleaner than at current.

EDIT: (just under) 50.0-41.0, 48.7-44.0, 63.6.

And what is probably my final word on the matter, 50.3-40.7, 49.0-43.7, 64.0-35.6.

...tinker tinker tinker... 50.6-40.5, 49.2-43.6, 64.2. Ugly as hell, of course.

[krazen1211]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

[Mr.Phips]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

That's not that much different than the current map.  The current map has 30 McCain districts and 20 Obama districts.