US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[SmokingCricket]

Asheville (and to a lesser extent, Boone) are the only places of Dem support in the mountains. There is a sizeable white dem sink in Asheville, a tiny dot in a sea of white GOP support.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Asheville wouldn't be included in a map of minority districts, which is what that is.

[krazen1211]

Wouldn't there also be a white dem sink in Ashville?

Could be. Not surprisingly, the Democrats are taking a different position in NC that they took in Nevada, Texas, or South Carolina.

http://www.fayobserver.com/articles/2011/06/19/1102694?sac=Home

[Miles]

Here's my shot at 10-3:





I think getting rid of the snake would help Republicans; all they would need to do is crack W-S and Greensboro between Foxx, Price and Cobble.

NC-01 is 52.1% black and NC-12 is 41.4% black, 32.5% white.

The biggest losers here would be Jones (who's PVI gets cut in half) and McHenry (though I'm sure he'd play ball).

[Mr.Phips]

Here's my shot at 10-3:





I think getting rid of the snake would help Republicans; all they would need to do is crack W-S and Greensboro between Foxx, Price and Cobble.

NC-01 is 52.1% black and NC-12 is 41.4% black, 32.5% white.

The biggest losers here would be Jones (who's PVI gets cut in half) and McHenry (though I'm sure he'd play ball).

This map could really backfire on Republicans in the next good Dem year.  Your NC-03 looks very much like the district Marty Lancaster held easily until 1992 and is traditionally very Democratic.  The only completely safe districts for the GOP here are NC-05, NC-06, and NC-11.  This could be a 10-3 Democratic map by 2016. 

[Miles]

Here's my shot at 10-3:





I think getting rid of the snake would help Republicans; all they would need to do is crack W-S and Greensboro between Foxx, Price and Cobble.

NC-01 is 52.1% black and NC-12 is 41.4% black, 32.5% white.

The biggest losers here would be Jones (who's PVI gets cut in half) and McHenry (though I'm sure he'd play ball).

This map could really backfire on Republicans in the next good Dem year.  Your NC-03 looks very much like the district Marty Lancaster held easily until 1992 and is traditionally very Democratic.  The only completely safe districts for the GOP here are NC-05, NC-06, and NC-11.  This could be a 10-3 Democratic map by 2016. 

Yeah, this was pretty much my "GOP Overreach Map."

NC-03 is only barely Republican at the state level (51-49). I figured Walter Jones would be enough of a moderate to hold it. After he retires, it could very well flip.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

McHenry isn't going to want his district's margin cut from 63-36 to 54-45.

[Miles]

McHenry isn't going to want his district's margin cut from 63-36 to 54-45.

But if taking a less safe district means a pickup of 2 or 3 other seats (and defeating Shuler),  he'd probably consider it. Maybe not down to 54% McCain, but I'm sure he'd take in more Democratic precincts if necessary.

I thought they were going to release the maps this week...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You underestimate the typical Congressman's desire for self-preservation above all else. Even moreso when it's a rabid partisan like McHenry who gets little to no crossover support.

The Congressional map is due out on July 1, I think.

[Miles]

You underestimate the typical Congressman's desire for self-preservation above all else. Even moreso when it's a rabid partisan like McHenry who gets little to no crossover support.

The Congressional map is due out on July 1, I think.

Good point. McHenry could easily lose if he were running in anything less than a 55-60% McCain district in a good Democratic year.

You're right; in most of my NC maps, I weaken the GOP incumbents more than I probably should.

Hooray...3 more days to Congressional redistricting Armageddon...

[krazen1211]

Going for 10-3.


http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/republicans-try-to-even-the-score-with-new-north-carolina-lines

In re-drawing the lines, GOP state legislators made some rock solid Republican congressional districts less secure, though all ten of the districts that Republicans expect to win sooner or later gave Republican presidential nominee John McCain at least 55 percent of the vote in 2008.


Foxx, Coble, McHenry, Jones - 55-56% McCain

Miller - 55.7% McCain

Ellmers - 55.5% McCain

Kissell - 55.3% McCain

Shuler - 58% McCain

McIntyre - 55.3% McCain

Mynick - ?

[Miles]

That 4th is atrocious.

Looks like we have Price vs Miller....

Kissell  has a 55% McCain district...he could have a chance. It could at least be competitive by the end of the decade.

McIntryre looks like he almost lives in NC-08.

[Miles]

McHenry about 57-42 McCain.

The new 4th isn't even close to being another VRA district. I have it as 51% white, 29% black. Its just a Democratic vote sink thats roughly 70% Obama.

I projecting it at 69.6% Obama 29.6% McCain.

[krazen1211]

Hot stuff.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1&Body=Congress

[Miles]

Rucho is my State Senator by the way...

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

This despicable gerrymander almost makes the Illinois map look amateurish in comparison.

[Miles]

Agreed. Its a masterpiece of Republican gerrymandering and minority packing.



From DKE:

"Republicans making a play for all 4 seats.  Shuler, Miller, Kissell, and McIntyre all in trouble.  Old vs new breakdown:

District / Old / New
1 37/63 31/68
2 47/52 56/44
3 61/38 56/43
4 37/62 28/71
5 61/38 57/42
6 63/36 55/44
7 52/47 55/44
8 47/52 55/44
9 55/45 55/44
10 63/36 57/42
11 52/47 58/41
12 29/71 22/78
13 40/59 56/43 "


The frickin 12th is 78% Obama!!!!

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

If that 4th district is not the the ugliest non-VRA district in the history of the world, then I don't know what is. Still, I have to admit, one shoestring isn't good for anything. You have to have two to be able to tie your shoes.

[krazen1211]

Hagan/Dole  Perdue/McCrory
1 70-29 71-27
2 46-51 45-52
3 47-51 54-44
4 70-27 66-30
5 46-51 44-53
6 48-48 45-52  Dole won by .4
7 50-46 51-45
8 48-48 45-53 Hagan won by .2
9 45-51 31-67
10 47-49 41-56
11 45-51 45-51
12 78-20 73-25
13 47-50 45-41



They definitely did no worse than the existing map.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

They definitely did no worse than the existing map.

The existing map has a 4th district that reflects a sensible community of interest. It doesn't stretch all the way to Fayetteville for partisan gain.

The existing map only splits Wake County three ways, which is bad enough. The Republican map splits it four ways.

The existing map only splits Forsyth County two ways, and only to accomodate the VRA district. The Republican map splits it three ways.

The existing map leaves the city of Asheville intact. The Republican map splits it for partisan gain.

The existing map leaves Harnett County intact. The Republican map splits it three ways for partisan gain and to prevent an Etheridge comeback.

The existing map splits Rowan and Davidson Counties only two ways. The Republican map splits them three ways.

Furthermore, the Republican map also seems to keep the most egregious splits from the existing map:
          -Three-way split of Cumberland County? Check.
          -Three-way split of Guilford County? Check, although at least they got rid of the touch-point contiguity, I think. The 12th looks pretty damn narrow there.

Now, I'm certainly not saying that the existing map is fair. It is definitely a Democratic gerrymander. But this map takes gerrymandering to a whole new level.

[RBH]

at the same time, if there's enough of a wave to take out one of those 55/44s, they could take five of those seats.

Racial splits (old districts in parentheses)

1: 52/39 B (50.5/44 B)
2: 71/17 W (59/30 W)
3: 68/24 W (76/17 W)
4: 56/30 W (69/21 W)
5: 79/12 W (88/7 W)
6: 75/15 W (85/9 W)
7: 74/17 W (63/23 W)
8: 64/20 W (62/27 W)
9: 79/12 W (83/10 W)
10: 82/12 W (85/9 W)
11: 90/3 W (90/5 W)
12: 51/34 B (44.6/44.6)
13: 78/15 W (63/27 W)

and some 2004

1: 72/27 Easley - 61/39 Kerry - 65/34 Bowles
2: 52/47 Easley - 64/36 Bush - 59/40 Burr
3: 56/43 Easley - 61/39 Bush - 55/44 Burr
4: 69/29 Easley - 61/39 Kerry - 63/35 Bowles
5: 49.45/48.8 Ballantine - 65/34 Bush - 62/36 Burr
6: 51/47 Easley - 63/37 Bush - 57/41 Burr
7: 55/44 Easley - 59/40 Bush - 54/44 Burr
8: 54/44 Easley - 62/38 Bush - 55/43 Burr
9: 53/45 Ballantine - 65/35 Bush - 60/38 Burr
10: 50/49 Easley - 64/36 Bush - 58/40 Burr
11: 49.3/48.8 Ballantine - 64/36 Bush - 58/40 Burr
12: 75/23 Easley - 69/31 Kerry - 71/28 Bowles
13: 53/46 Easley - 63/36 Bush - 59/40 Burr

So it's obviously not a gerrymander, since it went 10-3 for Easley when he won by almost 13%

[krazen1211]

They definitely did no worse than the existing map.

The existing map has a 4th district that reflects a sensible community of interest. It doesn't stretch all the way to Fayetteville for partisan gain.

The existing map only splits Wake County three ways, which is bad enough. The Republican map splits it four ways.

The existing map only splits Forsyth County two ways, and only to accomodate the VRA district. The Republican map splits it three ways.

The existing map leaves the city of Asheville intact. The Republican map splits it for partisan gain.

The existing map leaves Harnett County intact. The Republican map splits it three ways for partisan gain and to prevent an Etheridge comeback.

The existing map splits Rowan and Davidson Counties only two ways. The Republican map splits them three ways.

Furthermore, the Republican map also seems to keep the most egregious splits from the existing map:
          -Three-way split of Cumberland County? Check.
          -Three-way split of Guilford County? Check, although at least they got rid of the touch-point contiguity, I think. The 12th looks pretty damn narrow there.

Now, I'm certainly not saying that the existing map is fair. It is definitely a Democratic gerrymander. But this map takes gerrymandering to a whole new level.

There were other splits that were undone that you forgot to mention.

The existing map splits Mecklenberg, and I think even Charlotte, 3 ways. This map splits them 2 ways.

The existing map dives CD-1 all the way down to Craven County as well as other numerous tentacles. The new map shrinks and eliminates the tentacles.

The existing map splits Raleigh between 3 Congressional districts. Looking at the new map, it appears to split Raleigh only 2 ways.

The existing map splits Rutherford and Gaston County. The new map does not.

[Miles]

There were other splits that were undone that you forgot to mention.

The existing map splits Mecklenberg, and I think even Charlotte, 3 ways. This map splits them 2 ways.

NC-08 looks like it still retains some precincts in southeastern Mecklenburg.

[krazen1211]

There were other splits that were undone that you forgot to mention.

The existing map splits Mecklenberg, and I think even Charlotte, 3 ways. This map splits them 2 ways.

NC-08 looks like it still retains some precincts in southeastern Mecklenburg.

Ah I see that based on the pdf. It's kind of covered by the 12 in the map.

Some of the splits should definitely be eliminated.

[Miles]

So it's obviously not a gerrymander, since it went 10-3 for Easley when he won by almost 13%

Roy Cooper also carried all of the new districts in 2008 when he won by 22 points.

So, obviously, the map is very fair.