US House Redistricting: Maryland

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do you think it's possible the Democrats in Maryland will try to oust Harris anyway despite him winning? A bunch of things to consider:

1-There are plenty of Democrats on the Eastern Shore and in the state legislature.
2-Drawing the seat to be D+2 instead of R+13 isn't that hard.
3-Harris still has the Eastern Shore vs. Baltimore suburbs rivalry that won't go away.
4-Harris is not simply a mainstream conservative, he is an O'Donnell/Angle type. He was ranked by some article as the single most conservative member of the Maryland Senate, and frequently was on the losing side of votes where he was the only one voting against it (I suspect there will be similar votes in the House with him too, though they'll be more like 420-8 instead of one of course.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You could probably draw a 7-1 map significantly less ugly than the current map.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You can dilute Van Hollen's seat without causing too much trouble. It's now a bit over-packed with Democrats because it was designed to oust liberal Republican Connie Morella. The old seat was like a D+10, and Van Hollen would have no problem in such a seat now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And Harris is not a guy with mass appeal to moderate swing voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The main thing to consider is that ousting Harris would be a lot easier than ousting a generic Republican. Harris is the type of guy who would be 100% unelectable under any circumstances in even a D+1 seat. And probably even an R+1 seat. And maybe even an R+5 seat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I should note that if the Democrats do decide to ignore 7 Dem districts the map will end up looking far nicer than the current one.




The main reason MD-03 looks kind of weird is because Sarbanes lives so close to Ruppersberger (In Towson). The weirdness around the border with MD-05 is because of an unpopulated river precinct needed to connect to Annapolis. If Maryland didn't have those annoying areas like most states it'd look much cleaner. I drew Harris out of his district but we all know how much the Democrats would care.

MD-04 is 55% black and MD-07 is 59% black. All Democratic seats are over 60% Obama except 3 which is 58% Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It'd be nice to see MD adopt a prettier map. Doubt it will happen, but their current one is absolutley atrocious.

See this. It'd have the same partisan breakdown as the current one.

I should note that if the Democrats do decide to ignore 7 Dem districts the map will end up looking far nicer than the current one.




The main reason MD-03 looks kind of weird is because Sarbanes lives so close to Ruppersberger (In Towson). The weirdness around the border with MD-05 is because of an unpopulated river precinct needed to connect to Annapolis. If Maryland didn't have those annoying areas like most states it'd look much cleaner. I drew Harris out of his district but we all know how much the Democrats would care.

MD-04 is 55% black and MD-07 is 59% black. All Democratic seats are over 60% Obama except 3 which is 58% Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Cecil is basically Philly/Wilmington, DE exurbs. Don't see it as part of the Eastern Shore at all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah well I bet a lot of the locals in Michele Bachmann's district think they live in a "rural" area. Actually there are plenty of people in parts of Hennepin County that think what they live in is "rural". Didn't Philip once argue he lived in a rural area when he lived in Loudoun County?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That second district is obviously not continuous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Prince George’s County is larger than a congressional district, so that's kind of a silly complaint.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My attempt at 8-0:




This would have dummymander potential if the Maryland GOP wasn't so comically incompetent, but as they are...

MD-01: 52% McCain but averages 50.5% Dem average, designed for a moderate Dem from the Eastern Shore like Kratovil to beat a far right Republican. Southeast Baltimore County by the way has a pretty interesting underrun for Obama from the generic Dem numbers, and Obama underran Kerry in many precincts...so it's obvious what's happening there. I'm betting this mostly on that they'd go for such a moderate Democrat.

MD-02: 54.3% for both Obama and generic Dem numbers, Ruppersberger is fine with his Baltimore County personal vote and even with a surprise retirement it's not likely to flip.

MD-03: 53.4% Obama, over 56% for generic Dems, Sarbanes kind of benefits from the lack of any area where a GOP candidate could have a base of support and drive up numbers. He wins.

MD-04: 53.8% black VAP, "only" 77% Obama now, won't matter obviously.

MD-05: This wouldn't have to be so ugly if it wasn't for Hoyer, the Democrats could easily just add the rural areas to the ultra-black parts of Prince George's and have the second black seat, but Hoyer lives there. So the Hispanic and liberal white parts of Prince George's are added via that appendage, and the seat is still only 42.2% white VAP, but that's the plurality, and Hoyer will not be primaried.

MD-06: 52.8% Obama. Not exactly overwhelming, but this is Maryland. Bartlett is out of the seat though that wasn't deliberate, I removed Frederick so MD-02 could absorb more exurbs without becoming in danger, Bartlett is ancient and should retire anyway.

MD-07: 51.4% Obama, while the rural areas to the east of Prince George's dilute the Obama percentage to the low 70s, it's not like Edwards would still stand a chance of losing.

MD-08: 69.8% Obama, absorbs rural western Howard county which is still Republican and some Carroll County areas. Van Hollen isn't in trouble.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Hoyer is willing to move you can combine northern Prince George's with rural Anne Arundel and get a similar district partisan and demographic-wise that looks nicer, and put the rural southern areas in the second black district.

That map is still less ugly than the current map though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah the first is far uglier. I suspect it's because they're trying to preserve some of the current districts which are indeed hideous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Actually us Maryland Republican can compete just fine when the districts aren't grotesquely gerrymandered. 

Mostly not gerrymandered (though the distribution of seats in separate districts or multi-member ones obviously benefits the Democrats and that one seat on the Eastern Shore) and plenty of "naturally" Republican districts held by Democrats or with a split delegation.

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Presumably Bartlett will retire don't you think?

Probably.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Dude is also so old now his age rounds to 90.

In 2010 he won only 62% against a total nobody in a district that McCain got almost 58% in. In 2008 he actually got less votes than McCain but a slightly higher percentage due to undervotes, he no doubt underperformed Ehlrich in 2010 as well. So to think he could hang on he'd have to be quite senile...which he very well might be.

The more extreme than the NRA gun lobby's going to be sad no doubt, he was basically their second favorite member of Congress after Ron Paul. Not that their agenda has any threat to it anymore though...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well he's not the only one in Congress, but considering the only other one I know of is Sheila Jackson Lee, he might be the only one without serious mental illness issues (even if he is a little kooky and probably quite senile.)

I hooked up with a Seventh Day Adventist stripper once. Poor lady, her life went to a trainwreck and not because of any serious mistakes on her part either like people who get addicted to drugs (besides perhaps youthful naivete and getting married far too soon.) She went from a just married Sunday School (Well Saturday School) teacher at 19 to stripping with six kids at 32. She told me when I first met her kind of jokingly but I think also out of a sort of guilt she wanted to confess that the previous Saturday she went to church and then went straight to the club afterwards while her brother watched her kids. He was still quite conservative and didn't approve of what she did but basically said "I love you so I will help you out."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Black legislators are angry.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/5/black-leaders-fear-maryland-redistricting-may-dilu/print/
http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/2011/10/montco-lawmakers-bristle-over-md-redistricting-plan

And you know as well as anyone else that the legislature leaders do not care one iota and will tell them to f**k off.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A non-ugly 7-1 map isn't hard at all, though it would no doubt bother some individual reps. O'Malley and the leg leaders should just offer some personal incentives to some black legislators to guarantee their support for the map and then pass one and forget what the individuals in Congress whine about.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Edwards got elected in 2008 winning a primary mostly with the support of white liberals, so that's not a shocker. I fail to see what she's concerned about anyway, there is still a 0% chance of losing the general in that district or the primary barring a scandal or the type of ethical issues that dogged Wynn.

As for the "OMG ALL THESE THOUSANDS OF MINORITIES ARE BEING USED TO ELECT A WHITE DEMOCRAT" nonsense, they currently live in MD-08 which elects Chris Van Hollen...a white Democrat. And in fact more minorities were pushed into the district in 2002 for exactly that purpose, defeat Connie Morella with a white Democrat, with no real complaints.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Black legislators are angry.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/5/black-leaders-fear-maryland-redistricting-may-dilu/print/
http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/2011/10/montco-lawmakers-bristle-over-md-redistricting-plan

And you know as well as anyone else that the legislature leaders do not care one iota and will tell them to f**k off.

Black and Hispanic legislators and Republicans form a majority.

LOL!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-rep-donna-edwards-says-she-doesnt-support-current-redistricting-plan/2011/10/11/gIQAZnzPcL_story.html

 Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards said Tuesday she doesn’t support a redistricting plan in its current form because it doesn’t adequately represent minorities.



Yep. Dead and buried.

LOL!

And kudos for Maryland's black legislators for almost universally ignoring the Al Sharptons of the state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Considering Sarbanes wasn't even a rep then, no it's not. The main reason is how intent the Democrats were on making a seat that Ehlrich could not possibly win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the Democrats just made it as ugly as possible so Ehlrich would have nowhere to flee. It  might've backfired on them a bit once he was elected Governor, but they ousted him four years later and still hold it, so I doubt they mind too much.

The fact that Baltimore County has three of the reps when it only has the population for one district and they all live so close is interesting but also largely by accident, MD-01 was obviously not designed to be a Baltimore County district and MD-03 once Cardin left could've just as easily elected someone from Howard County or Annapolis.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It wasn't racial gerrymandering, just standard partisan gerrymandering, drawing another black district isn't possible without actual racial gerrymandering and groups are never "entitled" to a seat under the law.