US House Redistricting: Maryland

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Presumably Bartlett will retire don't you think?

If he knows what's good for him.

No real indication of that in his track record, though.

Perennial candidate who hit the jackpot very early, so...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Dude is also so old now his age rounds to 90.

In 2010 he won only 62% against a total nobody in a district that McCain got almost 58% in. In 2008 he actually got less votes than McCain but a slightly higher percentage due to undervotes, he no doubt underperformed Ehlrich in 2010 as well. So to think he could hang on he'd have to be quite senile...which he very well might be.

The more extreme than the NRA gun lobby's going to be sad no doubt, he was basically their second favorite member of Congress after Ron Paul. Not that their agenda has any threat to it anymore though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seventh-day Adventist as well.

[minionofmidas]

Seventh-day Adventist as well.

Yes. That's a real reason to miss him.

[Torie]

Seventh-day Adventist as well.

Yes. That's a real reason to miss him.

With something like 11 kids no?  If we just had a few more like him, Social Security could be made solvent without having to cut much - or tax more - a veritable freebie! 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seventh-day Adventist as well.

Yes. That's a real reason to miss him.

With something like 11 kids no?  If we just had a few more like him, Social Security could be made solvent without having to cut much - or tax more - a veritable freebie! 

Yeah, but just imagine the housing crisis.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Dude is also so old now his age rounds to 90.

In the House, only Ralph Hall of Texas is older.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well he's not the only one in Congress, but considering the only other one I know of is Sheila Jackson Lee, he might be the only one without serious mental illness issues (even if he is a little kooky and probably quite senile.)

I hooked up with a Seventh Day Adventist stripper once. Poor lady, her life went to a trainwreck and not because of any serious mistakes on her part either like people who get addicted to drugs (besides perhaps youthful naivete and getting married far too soon.) She went from a just married Sunday School (Well Saturday School) teacher at 19 to stripping with six kids at 32. She told me when I first met her kind of jokingly but I think also out of a sort of guilt she wanted to confess that the previous Saturday she went to church and then went straight to the club afterwards while her brother watched her kids. He was still quite conservative and didn't approve of what she did but basically said "I love you so I will help you out."

[redcommander]

Seventh-day Adventist as well.

What is wrong with being one?

[krazen1211]

Black legislators are angry.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/5/black-leaders-fear-maryland-redistricting-may-dilu/print/
http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/2011/10/montco-lawmakers-bristle-over-md-redistricting-plan

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seventh-day Adventist as well.

What is wrong with being one?

When did I say that?

[redcommander]

Seventh-day Adventist as well.

What is wrong with being one?

When did I say that?

It seemed like you were inferring there was, because the post before yours was talking about all the negatives of Bartlett (Age, under-preforming national Republicans). My apologies for the misunderstanding.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Black legislators are angry.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/5/black-leaders-fear-maryland-redistricting-may-dilu/print/
http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/2011/10/montco-lawmakers-bristle-over-md-redistricting-plan

And you know as well as anyone else that the legislature leaders do not care one iota and will tell them to f**k off.

[krazen1211]

Black legislators are angry.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/5/black-leaders-fear-maryland-redistricting-may-dilu/print/
http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/2011/10/montco-lawmakers-bristle-over-md-redistricting-plan

And you know as well as anyone else that the legislature leaders do not care one iota and will tell them to f**k off.

Black and Hispanic legislators and Republicans form a majority.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/odd-couples-team-up-to-attack-md-redistricting-map/2011/10/07/gIQAldW1TL_story.html


Rep. Donna F. Edwards (D), meanwhile, has not commented publicly on the map. But multiple Maryland Democratic sources said she is unhappy that the plan takes away the portion of upper Montgomery County she represents, instead stretching her 4th District east from Prince George’s County into Anne Arundel County.

Adding a layer of potential intrigue, Bartlett and Edwards were seen huddling over maps of the state during House votes Wednesday evening.

[Torie]

This is just so much fun - and all this contretemps to generate but a lean Dem CD. It's all simply grand. And after AZ, I need something to bring a smile to my face.

[timothyinMD]

Dude is also so old now his age rounds to 90.

In 2010 he won only 62% against a total nobody in a district that McCain got almost 58% in. In 2008 he actually got less votes than McCain but a slightly higher percentage due to undervotes, he no doubt underperformed Ehlrich in 2010 as well. So to think he could hang on he'd have to be quite senile...which he very well might be.

The more extreme than the NRA gun lobby's going to be sad no doubt, he was basically their second favorite member of Congress after Ron Paul. Not that their agenda has any threat to it anymore though...

Btw, all the personal attacks on Roscoe are ridiculous.

About 2010.  You don't mention that 5.25% went to Lib/Const. party candidates.   Roscoe + Lib/Const.  earned 66.7%   Duck, the Dem, got 33.2%  That's 2 to 1.

About 2008.  You don't mention that Roscoe's opponent was Jennifer Dougherty, the mayor of Frederick, Md's second largest city and population base of district 6.    And despite her standing, she badly under performed Obama, who only lost by 1,100 votes

by my count in 2008, the 6th was Bartlett by 62,719 and McCain by 61,474. 

[muon2]

Lets see ...

If the minority groups want 3 black districts, and Edwards likes Montgomery better than Anne Arundel, and the GOP wants 2 solid seats, and it's best to leave all the members in their districts,

... then have I got a plan for you.



The black-majority districts 4, 5, and 7 have BVAPs of 53.9%, 51.1% and 56.6% respectively.

The two GOP districts 1 and 6 were 56.6% and 58.0% for McCain. All other districts voted for Obama, and had an average Dem vote in 2006-2008 of over 56%.

[minionofmidas]

Who says Roscoe wants two solid GOP seats? Clearly he and the Blacks conspiring spells 7-1 with Harris replaced by a Black to me! (Seriously... would such a map be possible? Hoyer and Ruppersberger would probably have to take quite marginal districts and share the Eastern Shore between them.)

[Verily]

Who says Roscoe wants two solid GOP seats? Clearly he and the Blacks conspiring spells 7-1 with Harris replaced by a Black to me! (Seriously... would such a map be possible? Hoyer and Ruppersberger would probably have to take quite marginal districts and share the Eastern Shore between them.)

If you're willing to jump the Chesapeake without a bridge and then wind your way up the Potomac, you could connect the more racially mixed parts of the Eastern Shore (in the south) to PG County to create a third black district. That's probably the most Democratic-efficient way to produce a third one.

[krazen1211]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-rep-donna-edwards-says-she-doesnt-support-current-redistricting-plan/2011/10/11/gIQAZnzPcL_story.html

 Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards said Tuesday she doesn’t support a redistricting plan in its current form because it doesn’t adequately represent minorities.



Yep. Dead and buried.

[minionofmidas]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-rep-donna-edwards-says-she-doesnt-support-current-redistricting-plan/2011/10/11/gIQAZnzPcL_story.html

 Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards said Tuesday she doesn’t support a redistricting plan in its current form because it doesn’t adequately represent minorities.



Yep. Dead and buried.

You'd think they'd get her on board before going public...

[muon2]

Who says Roscoe wants two solid GOP seats? Clearly he and the Blacks conspiring spells 7-1 with Harris replaced by a Black to me! (Seriously... would such a map be possible? Hoyer and Ruppersberger would probably have to take quite marginal districts and share the Eastern Shore between them.)

If MD is at all like IL, then Hoyer would continue to represent the black-majority CD-5. A senior member in leadership shouldn't have a big problem in a primary. When he retires the district could elect a minority in the open contest.

Ruppersberger (green) has the closest distrcit with a 2.4% margin for Obama, though the DRA Dem average is +13%. Sarbanes (purple) is the other close district where Obama won by 5.7%, but it also shows a +12.4% Dem advantage in the DRA.

[timothyinMD]

Boom.

4 majority minority seats in Maryland

Red= 68.5% black
Gray= 64.7% black
Purple= 59.5% minority
Orange=51.5% minority

[DrScholl]

I think these issues will be worked out and 7-1 will be the final map. It's easy to fix the "issues" that some have with minority votes and still get 7-1, it's just a matter of modification.

[krazen1211]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bal-new-districts-chart,0,852399.htmlpage

Data.