2011 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Never heard of the pollster, and this quality paper commissioned the poll. East Berlin's answer to the Daily Mirror, basically.

[Tender Branson]

More polls out today:

Sachsen-Anhalt state election (March 20) by Infratest dimap:

33.0%  [-3.2] CDU
25.0% [+0.9] Left
24.0% [+2.6] SPD
  5.5% [+1.9] Greens
  5.0% [+2.0] Nazis
  4.5%  [-2.2] FDP
  3.0%  [-2.0] Others

Majority for CDU-Left, CDU-SPD, Left-SPD.

Rheinland-Pfalz state election (March 27) by Infratest dimap:

38%  [-7.6] SPD
36% [+3.2] CDU
10% [+5.4] Greens 
  7%  [-1.0] FDP
  5% [+2.5] Left
  4%  [-2.5] Others

Tie between SPD-Greens and CDU-FDP-Left. Majority for SPD-CDU and SPD-Greens-Left.

[RodPresident]

In Rheinland-Pfalz, a traffic-light coalition is also another viable option. Beck has a good relationship with FDP.

[Franzl]

In Rheinland-Pfalz, a traffic-light coalition is also another viable option. Beck has a good relationship with FDP.

Not sure he could sell that politically these days

[Tender Branson]

More polls today:

Sachsen-Anhalt state election (March 20) by FGW:

32% CDU
24% SPD
24% Left
  5% Nazis
  5% Greens
  5% FDP
  5% Others

It seems that the Left is moving towards 20% territory and that the real race for number 1 will be between CDU and SPD. I expect something like 30% CDU, 28% SPD, 20% Left.

Baden-Württemberg state election (March 27) by Forsa:

40% CDU
26% SPD
20% Greens
  5% FDP
  4% Left
  5% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[Leftbehind]

I'm sure I've mentioned before how much I hate East Berlin.

Change hate to love, and you've summed up my feelings upon seeing that chart.

Majority for CDU-Left, CDU-SPD, Left-SPD.

What is the history of coalitions with the Left? Have there ever been any CDU-Left, or even SPD-Left coalitions on any level?

[minionofmidas]

You're not going to see CDU-Left on any level higher than a rural municipality. Though on that level, surprisingly, they're not all that rare.

Red-red coalitions have existed on the state level in Meck-Pomm, 1998 to 2006, Berlin since 2002, and Brandenburg since 2009. Saxony-Anhalt had PDS-tolerated SPD governments from 94 to 02 (until 98, a coalition with the Greens) - which is why this is called a "Magdeburg Model". And since 2010 exists in one western state (NRW).
In all of these constellations, the SPD is/was the senior partner - electing a Left state PM is apparently still a no-no to wide swathes of the SPD. It was seriously under discussion in Thuringia in 2009, of course.

[Leftbehind]

Thanks for the runthrough. Yeah, I did a double-take at the CDU-Left coalition suggestions, but localised elections often force unlikely coalitions.

Just read about the Thuringia state election in '09 - are SPD voters centrist enough to accept their party turning down a SPD-Left-Green coalition for a CDU-SPD one instead? I remember being shocked at reading that the SPD were extremely reluctant to coalesce with the Left on a national basis, which I found weird given they've joined Grand coalitions before. Surely their voter base is more open to former (is there any polls on this?), or have the Left/Greens hoovered up the German left-wing in its entirity, so the SPD is now the repository for centrist voters?

[minionofmidas]

Poll of Frankfurt city council election. Swallow a saltmine, of course.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting facts from the latest Forsa BW poll:

Stuttgart 21 is now supported 49-40.

30% of voters support a Red-Green coalition, 22% CDU-FDP, 18% a CDU-SPD coalition and 11% a CDU-Green coalition.

Even though Gov. Mappus (CDU) only gets a 30% job approval rating, he leads the SPD and Green front-runners by wide margins.




57% of voters say that the Guttenberg retreat hurts the CDU at the election, 22% say not.

[Tender Branson]

A few new Emnid polls today:

Baden-Württemberg

39% CDU
24% SPD
20% Greens
  7% FDP
  5% Left
  5% Others

No majority for CDU-FDP and SPD-Greens. Majority for CDU-SPD and SPD-Greens-Left.

Nordrhein-Westfalen

35% SPD
35% CDU
14% Greens
  5% Left
  5% FDP
  6% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

Rheinland-Pfalz

39% SPD
34% CDU
10% Greens 
  6% FDP
  5% Left
  6% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

Germany

35% CDU/CSU
28% SPD
15% Greens
10% Left
  6% FDP
  6% Others

CDU-FDP government still down by 41-53.

[Franzl]

I wouldn't be too surprised if the anti-nuclear propaganda gave the left the few crucial points they need.

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn't be too surprised if the anti-nuclear propaganda gave the left the few crucial points they need.

Don't worry, it won't be because of nuclear energy. Only 4% of Baden-Württemberg voters say nuclear energy is their most important issue:



If voters really vote out the CDU-FDP government, it's because of Gov. Mappus' dictatorial style in steamrolling the Stuttgart protestors, just like it was the case with Gov. Walker in Wisconsin.

My hope is that the voters have not yet forgotten what happened last autumn.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I wouldn't be too surprised if the anti-nuclear propaganda gave the left the few crucial points they need.

Don't worry, it won't be because of nuclear energy. Only 4% of Baden-Württemberg voters say nuclear energy is their most important issue:



If voters really vote out the CDU-FDP government, it's because of Gov. Mappus' dictatorial style in steamrolling the Stuttgart protestors, just like it was the case with Gov. Walker in Wisconsin.

My hope is that the voters have not yet forgotten what happened last autumn.

Eh, when was this poll conducted?

Priorities can and will change becauce of Fukushima.

[Franzl]

Stuttgart 21 has more supporters than opponents last time I looked, though.

[Tender Branson]

Stuttgart 21 has more supporters than opponents last time I looked, though.

OK. It´s one poll, with many undecideds. The issue is very polarizing though and I still think some previously CDU voting people - who actually support S21 - but where not happy with what they saw during the protests (policy brutality), could end up ousting Mappus.

BTW, Mappus is already fearing for his political life and is now slowly moving out of the ass of the pro-atomic lobby:

http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/mappus-denkt-um/3946822.html

[Tender Branson]

Thousands form human chain in protest against nuclear energy in Germany

The explosion at the Japanese nuclear power plant has given new fuel to a long-running dispute in Germany, where tens of thousands demonstrated on Saturday against plans to extend the life of the country’s nuclear power stations.

According to the police, some 50 000 people took part in the protest which saw a human chain spread from a nuclear power plant in Neckarwestheim to the city of Stuttgart.

Those participating in the demonstration said it was time for the German government to move away from nuclear power.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose government has extended the lifespan of Germany’s nuclear power plants, was set to meet senior cabinet ministers later on Saturday in light of fears of a meltdown in Japan.

http://www.euronews.net/2011/03/12/thousands-form-human-chain-in-protest-against-nuclear-energy-in-germany/

[Franzl]

We have too many idiots here, it seems.

[Hans-im-Glück]

We have too many idiots here, it seems.

Do you speak about yourself?

[Franzl]

We have too many idiots here, it seems.

Do you speak about yourself?

I'm not one of the 50,000 people protesting because of a 1 in a million chance of something similar to Japan happening here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Calm and all that. Fluffy bunnies.

Edit: some posts have been moved into a new thread in international general.

[minionofmidas]

We have too many idiots here, it seems.

Do you speak about yourself?

I'm not one of the 50,000 people protesting because of a 1 in a million chance of something similar to Japan happening here.

Which nobody did.

[Tender Branson]

Advantage for CDU-FDP in BW, for now:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Pre-Fukushima polls could be pretty useless at this point. We don't really know what the hell is going to happen.

[minionofmidas]

Pre-Fukushima polls could be pretty useless at this point. We don't really know what the hell is going to happen.

For instance, it might have no effect at all.
So, the uninformed (on both sides of the nuclear issue - this includes all of the pro-nuclear federal policy makers) are in hard-panicky mode right now; and the anti-nuclear people (informed or uninformed) are in mild I told you so mode. Whether that affects any vote decisions or not remains to be seen. It is entirely possible.