2011 State Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Today we also have 3 new polls:

Germany - Emnid

34%  (nc) CDU/CSU
27%  (-1) SPD
20% (+2) Greens
  9%  (nc) Left
  4%  (-1) FDP
  6%  (nc) Others

Berlin State Election (Forsa)

29% SPD
24% Greens
19% CDU
13% Left
  3% FDP
12% Others

Berlin Federal Election (Forsa)

26% Greens
25% SPD
21% CDU
16% Left
  3% FDP
  9% Others

[minionofmidas]

town council elections will be held in Hessen today to test the power of the new PM there, Volker Bouffier (CDU).

That's not what we're voting for, no.

Full results out some time during the week, btw.
Link to the 2006 thread.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout seems to be up in BW, according to some cities reporting a 10am turnout:

Ulm: 4.1%, up from 2.8% in 2006

Karlsruhe: 3.9%, up from 1.7% in 2006

Meaningless, but let's wait for noon turnout figures from other cities.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, no one votes early. Well, I did, at half past nine.

I am ready to divulge the full spread of my preferences:

City Council
Greens 30
Left 21
Pirates 15
SPD 6
FAG 6
EL 6
Ökolinx 6
IEL 3

Ortsbeirat
Greens 10
Left 9

Referendum
No

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, no one votes early. Well, I did, at half past nine.

I am ready to divulge the full spread of my preferences:

City Council
Greens 30
Left 21
Pirates 15
SPD 6
FAG 6
EL 6
Ökolinx 6
IEL 3

Ortsbeirat
Greens 10
Left 9

Referendum
No

You can cast 93 votes for city council and 19 for Ortsbeirat today ?

Or what do the numbers mean ?

[minionofmidas]

Yes - same number as seats available.

The problem, of course, is that you can't cast more than three votes per individual candidate, irrespective of number of seats. Which makes the whole thing utterly farcical in the large councils- you're literally forced to support at least 31 candidates. Sure, you can cast a list vote, but that's just a shortcut for a distribution of all your (remaining, if you also vote for some individuals) votes among the people on that list.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is also up in the big cities of Rheinland-Pfalz so far ...

[Tender Branson]

SWR provides more numbers:

In Stuttgart hatten bis 11.00 Uhr schon 8,7 Prozent der Wahlberechtigten ihr Kreuzchen gemacht. Bei der Wahl vor fünf Jahren waren es um diese Zeit nur 6,4 Prozent.

In Heidelberg lag die Wahlbeteiligung am späten Vormittag bei 8,4 Prozent, 2006 waren es zur gleichen Zeit nur 4,9 Prozent gewesen.

In Pforzheim waren schon 9,4 Prozent der Wahlberechtigten bei den Wahllokalen, vor fünf Jahren waren 7,2 Prozent. Allerdings hat sich in Pforzheim der Zuschnitt des Wahlkreises verändert.

In Ulm hatte die Wahlbeteiligung um 10.00 Uhr schon bei 4,1 Prozent gelegen, 2006 waren es um diese Zeit lediglich 2,8 Prozent.

In Karlsruhe hatten in den ersten zwei Stunden nach dem Öffnen der Wahllokale 3,9 Prozent der Bürger ihr Kreuzchen gemacht, vor fünf Jahren waren es zur gleichen Zeit erst 1,7 Prozent.

Ungewöhnlich viele Menschen hatten ihre Stimme in den vergangenen Wochen auch schon per Briefwahl abgegeben. Bei der letzten Landtagswahl lag die Wahlbeteiligung bei 53,4 Prozent.

http://www.swr.de/nachrichten/wahl/bw/-/id=7502026/nid=7502026/did=7814990/1ccq61z/index.html

[minionofmidas]

I shall go out on a limb and predict a Green-Red victory.

[Tender Branson]

I have found a few 2006 town maps at the Statistische Landesamt BW:

[minionofmidas]

All of these are excluding postal votes - probably because some smaller municipalities' postal votes are not counted locally.

[Tender Branson]

And compare this with population density in BW:



The biggest CDU leads are in places with low density ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Looks like big SPD/Green mobilization... and there's no real for CDU/FDP supporters to be mobilized, except if they're mobilized against their parties in a protest vote.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout @ noon in all of Rheinland-Pfalz was 31.7%, up from 26.2% in 2006.

http://www.swr.de/nachrichten/wahl/rp/-/id=7502030/nid=7502030/did=7816794/1f7mof9/index.html

[minionofmidas]

Doesn't say which pollster that is, but "energy policy" is one of the most important issues to 44% of those polls in their last pre-election BaWü poll... up from 4% pre-Fukushima. Yeah. Of course that doesn't mean they all changed their opinion.

[BenNebbich]

i'm really looking forward to 18.00.

but i still fear a cdu/fdp victory in BW. the election law is still giving advantages to the cdu.

well lets see.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Of course that doesn't mean they all changed their opinion.

The problem is that the pro-nuclear folks don't really have a party to vote for? Or maybe FDP, because of the Brüderle remarks.

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt ballot paper:

[minionofmidas]

http://wahl.hr-online.de/aktuell/index.html

For later use.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is now sharply up in both states:

In Baden-Württemberg, turnout at 2pm was already 30.7% - but in 2006 it was at 29.8% @ 3pm.

Rheinland-Pfalz at 2pm: 42%, up from 35% in 2006

[Tender Branson]

Will this be true ?

http://www.mappus-restlaufzeit.de

In 1 hour we'll know more.

[minionofmidas]

My mother reports back, bewilderedly, that she actually had to wait in line for a few minutes. At a local election at 4pm. A pollworker told her that it's been like that since one. And, to make it all extra strange, it seemed to be limited to that one precinct only - there's several in that school, with little demographic difference between them.

Citywide though, turnout seems to be a tad below even the 2006 figures according to the elections office.

[Tender Branson]

At 4pm, turnout in Karlsruhe was 52.1%, up from 38.7% in 2006.

Also: Westerwelle (FDP) has just announced that he will not step down, no matter what happens today.

Probably means the FDP got some early figures that they didn't do that badly after all, but who knows ?

[BenNebbich]

or it mans the opposite.

or it doesn't mean anything at all.

[Tender Branson]

ARD Live Stream:

http://www.ardmediathek.de/ard/servlet/content/3517136?documentId=6804258