The Next Major Third Party

[PBrunsel]

Duh, the Prohibition Party will rise again!!

[Erc]

the videogame party- getting respect for all the losers out there

slogan "we roxor, you're a bunch of noobs and haxors!"


seriously guys, thats why we need to kill them all off, before this really does happen

No danger of that, their core voters will be too busy playing video games (ironically enough, probably games released by the campaign...) to actually go out and vote...

[AkSaber]

Is it an even remote possibility that Democrats in the South could break from the Democratic party and make an off-shoot party composed of Conservative Democrats?

[AkSaber]

It's been done before... 1948 Dixiecrats and 1968 American Independents but since so many Democrats have become Republicans in the South, I'm not sure how likely it would be today. I assume you are thinking of people like Zell Miller.

Hmm. I did not know that. And yeah, Zell Miller did come to mind.

[Beet]

Heh, its funny, George Wallace is seen as the ultra-conservative yet he was a supporter of the Equal Rights Amendment-- what would now be considered a liberal position.

[skybridge]

What is it with Roy Moore? Do you really think a contempt of a Federal court religious nut has any appeal outside of the south???

[Speed of Sound]

When do you think the next time a third party will take a significant (at least 10%) number of votes, and what side of the spectrum will it draw from?

I think it will be 2016 and it will be the libertarians.

[True Democrat]

When do you think the next time a third party will take a significant (at least 10%) number of votes, and what side of the spectrum will it draw from?

I think it will be 2016 and it will be the libertarians.

It might be.  Many moderately Libertarian Specter Republicans may leave the party, instead of being RINOs.

[Colin]

When do you think the next time a third party will take a significant (at least 10%) number of votes, and what side of the spectrum will it draw from?

I think it will be 2016 and it will be the libertarians.

It might be.  Many moderately Libertarian Specter Republicans may leave the party, instead of being RINOs.

I think the only successful third party we could have is a breakaway centrist party made up of the Specter/McCain/Snow wing of the Republican party and the Liberman/Breaux wing of the Democratic party. I see a party like this able to poll in the mid 20's in the popular vote and win some states. Only problem is that the moderates will probably never break away from their parties so its a pipe dream.

[Palefire]

When do you think the next time a third party will take a significant (at least 10%) number of votes, and what side of the spectrum will it draw from?

I think it will be 2016 and it will be the libertarians.

It might be.  Many moderately Libertarian Specter Republicans may leave the party, instead of being RINOs.

I think the only successful third party we could have is a breakaway centrist party made up of the Specter/McCain/Snow wing of the Republican party and the Liberman/Breaux wing of the Democratic party. I see a party like this able to poll in the mid 20's in the popular vote and win some states. Only problem is that the moderates will probably never break away from their parties so its a pipe dream.

I think you are right about the pipe dream part, but it would be great if the moderates did team up and break away form the extreme elements that dominate todays politics. If they played their cards correctly they could become as large or larger than the big 2 in a relatively small number of election cycles.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I would expect a populist party the most likely to form.  Immigration would be a big issue to it.  I imagine one could run on these planks:
~ Cut of bureaucracy in government, remove tax cuts on rich, cut corporate welfare, and lower taxes on poor and middle class
~ Heavily fight illegal immigration and also slow legal immigration slightly.
~ Punish Corporations that are exporting jobs, lower small buisness taxes
~ Invest in and strongly push for renewable energy use
~ States' Rights on most social issues
~ Cut the defecit

I think you captured a good description of a very real potential third party (although I don't think 'renewable energy' will be a big issue).

This is pretty much the description of the potential Perot voters in the late spring of 1992 (before he first pulled out).

I estimate it encompasses (now) about a quarter of the electorate willing to abandon the Democrats and Republicans.

[phk]

Perot-type Party

[Erc]

Ten percent is a lot for a third party.

I agree it would take a lot of money and a high profile candidate to achieve this level.

There would have to be a good reason for people to vote for a third party candidate.  They would have to be the right candidate with a platform that appeals to people's dissatisfaction with the status quo.

In 1912, former President Theodore Roosevelt ran as the candidate of the Progressive Party and received about 27% of the vote, more popular votes and more electoral votes than the Republican, President William Howard Taft.

If there were similar circumstances as in 1912, this scenario would be possible, however, I do not expect to see this happen again.

There really isn't anyone with that much popular following in either party to pull something like that off.

I mean, McCain could try to pull something off in the event that both parties choose 'wingnuts,' but I doubt that his campaign would get much of anywhere.

The only person with enough pull to do that is Bill Clinton...and he's ineligible to run again.