The Next Major Third Party

[Hermit]

When do you think the next time a third party will take a significant (at least 10%) number of votes, and what side of the spectrum will it draw from? I could see a Roy Moore (or equivalent) Constitution Party run in a year where a liberal Republican doing well. And if the Dems nominate a conservative or centerist, I could see Dean snatching a major ammount of liberal voters. Thoughts?

[Colin]

I was thinking about this today. In the Fantasy politics the UAC is a major force. Centrist are always a major voting block and are always pulled to two opposite ends of the spectrum. But what if their was a Centrist Party in the US. It could have Arlen Spector, Lincoln Chafee, Evan Bayh, Joe Lieberman types in it. It could be a voice for the moderates. I could see a party like that becoming a major force in American politics if it can form. If both parties move more to the right and left then you will see a growing need for a Centrist third party.

[danwxman]

I was thinking about this today. In the Fantasy politics the UAC is a major force. Centrist are always a major voting block and are always pulled to two opposite ends of the spectrum. But what if their was a Centrist Party in the US. It could have Arlen Spector, Lincoln Chafee, Evan Bayh, Joe Lieberman types in it. It could be a voice for the moderates. I could see a party like that becoming a major force in American politics if it can form. If both parties move more to the right and left then you will see a growing need for a Centrist third party.

If they could get enough people to jump ship, it would have a major effect on our political system. It takes a long time to form a political party though, and it couldn't happen overnight. The best time would be right after an election so they would have four years to form a party, platform etc...

What would their name be though? Hopefully not "Centrists"

[ilikeverin]

Dark horse: the Progressive Party [of Vermont]

[iosip]

i think the republicans are going to be the next third party.

[Doug D. Wise]

i think the democrats are going to be the next third party

[Gabu]

The Bill Gates Party.  They're entirely self-funding and their entire platform is "vote for us or we'll come out with another version of Windows ME".

[John Dibble]

To pull ten percent of the popular vote will take a LOAD of dough. Whoever actually manages to do it will have to have Perot or Soros like resources; Trump like ability to attract media and the skill of an actor to make people actually believe an alternative candidate has a legitimate shot at winning. Tall order... but there is somebody out there who will do it.

Agreed. Either having money or celebrity status would be required. I think the Libertarians could do it if they had a situation like with Ed Clark(got almost 1 million votes in 1980), just better. He had a rich VP candidate, though not super rich, so they could pump a lot of money into the campaign. Basically we'd need someone intelligent and well spoken, maybe a bit more moderate than Badnarik, with a super rich VP with Bill Gates type wealth(billions) who would be willing to spend millions of dollars to match the major party candidates.

[stry_cat]

There are others out there who might step up. My fear with the LP is that a convention of "purists" might turn their backs on such a possible nominee over one or two positions. That's why I left. Too few practical people.

From my experience the last 5 years, the impractical people in the LP are being quickly replaced with people who get results.  If you want to improve the LP and want a serious alternative to the statist Demopublicans and Republocrats, you need to stay involved with the LP.  As we grow things will get better.

[PBrunsel]

If Giuliani wins the 2008 Republican Nomination, Roy Moore or Alan Keyes may run a Conservative campaign under the Constitution Party.

Jesse Ventura may also do well in 2008 if he runs. Donald Trump and Ventura should have ran in 2000 under the Reform Party I think. Perhaps they can bring the Refrom Party back from the dead after the Buchanan disaster.

[The Dowager Mod]

The Constitution party.

[Erc]

The Reform Party died in January 2003 when its last Governors left office and Tom Golisano failed to break 20 in the New York Governor's race.

And, heck, Golisano was running on the Independence ticket, anyway...

After nominating Buchanan and then Nader, the Reform Party is probably so discredited that any new multimillionare running would just pull a Perot and start his own campaign.

[John Dibble]

There are others out there who might step up. My fear with the LP is that a convention of "purists" might turn their backs on such a possible nominee over one or two positions. That's why I left. Too few practical people.

From my experience the last 5 years, the impractical people in the LP are being quickly replaced with people who get results.  If you want to improve the LP and want a serious alternative to the statist Demopublicans and Republocrats, you need to stay involved with the LP.  As we grow things will get better.

Indeed. In my short time, I've seen a few purists, but I've been seeing many more sensible people lately. Besides, if all the practical people like you or me leave because of the purists, it's a gaurantee the party will stay a bunch of purists - best to get in as many sensible, practical, and intelligent libertarians as possible. I don't care what anyone tells you, you can make a difference if you are willing to work for it.

[Brutus]

The next break-out candidate in a presidential race could come from anywhere, right or left.  Either way, they're likely to be a one-hit wonder and whatever "party" they head will be gone by the following election cycle.

[John Dibble]

There are others out there who might step up. My fear with the LP is that a convention of "purists" might turn their backs on such a possible nominee over one or two positions. That's why I left. Too few practical people.

From my experience the last 5 years, the impractical people in the LP are being quickly replaced with people who get results.  If you want to improve the LP and want a serious alternative to the statist Demopublicans and Republocrats, you need to stay involved with the LP.  As we grow things will get better.

Indeed. In my short time, I've seen a few purists, but I've been seeing many more sensible people lately. Besides, if all the practical people like you or me leave because of the purists, it's a gaurantee the party will stay a bunch of purists - best to get in as many sensible, practical, and intelligent libertarians as possible. I don't care what anyone tells you, you can make a difference if you are willing to work for it.

I did work for the LP in the late 70's and early 80's. I was a county chair, a candidate for county commissioner and even won the LP nomination for U.S. Senator in a three candidate contested convention in 1984. I was also the campaign manager for the most successful third party congressional campaign of 1980. I worked in ballot access petition drives in CA as well as TX. There are times when hard work is not enough. I hope you are right about more practical people coming in to the party.

Cool stuff. You are right, hard work isn't always enough, but without it you are doomed to failure anyways. Winners never quit, and quitters never win. Sometimes you've gotta have patience. Like I said, we'd love to have you back, we need more like you to build up the party.

[Hitchabrut]

The only way a non-Republican or non-Democratic candidate can win is if the other candidate is an independent. If foreign-born citizens become allowed to run, the Governator will run as an independent, definitely not as a Republican.

[dokken]

I agree that Arnold could run as independent if he does not get the republican nomination and he could win (or at least get 30 percent of the popular vote and lots of electoral votes (including 55 from california)

[dokken]

Could a democrat vote for arnold?
Actually yes.

Would a democrat vote for guliani anymore?
No way hosey. He's a corrupted commodity.

[MaC]

Yes, it would be good to have the Libertarian candidate either rich or famous, but I think ultimately it will take a huge event or a new great awakening, something of that nature to bring the LP to winning presidential elections.  For example, predictions are that both Medicare and Social Security will run out by 2020. (maybe one a few years before the other, possibly later for both, I really don't know).  Another thing to consider, Keynsian economics worked from the 1930s and failed around the late 1970s.  Reaganomics will probably suffice for about another 20, maybe 30 years.  Unfortuately, a good candidate by him/her self probably wont do it.  I predict a landslide for the LP once this second great depression happens.  Hopefully our first candidate will be a damn good one, so we can keep America free.

[George W. Hobbes]

Probably a moderate organization with a Perotian attitude to running the government like a business and offering a sensible mix of commonsensical reforms.

Call them the Whigs.

[Frodo]

in all probability it would likely be the Libertarians.  someone mentioned earlier that the single most important resource a political party needs is money, and what party would be better positioned to receive such funding than the Libertarians?  think about it -they are big businesses' wet dream.  the corporations would be in a dream wonderland if the Libertarians were to have their way.  with the Republican Party trending more and more towards rightwing populism -and away from the libertarian ideals of Barry Goldwater- i would not be surprised to see such organizations like Club for Growth, Americans for Tax Reform, the Business Roundtable, and other libertarian organizations leaping ship for the Libertarians. 

in the end, every major political coalition splinters off, as the New Deal coalition that FDR fashioned finally fell apart after 1968, but not before major third parties arose in the interim between the destruction of the Democratic New Deal coalition and the rise of the newer Republican conservative coalition that we see today, in particular the American Independence Party that Alabama Gov. George C. Wallace created (modeled on the States' Rights Party that Strom Thurmond made, but quickly fell apart after 1948), that attracted disaffected Democrats particularly from the Deep South, and who later became Republicans. 

such an end will also come to the Republican ascendance and the overall conservative consensus, with the religious right and economic conservatives increasingly at odds with each other.  and i expect the Libertarians to be particularly well-placed to attract disaffected Republicans the way the States' Rights and American Independence Parties attracted disaffected Democrats.

the Libertarians will have their day in the sun, if only briefly for a couple election cycles, the way the American Independence Party was at its most powerful in 1968 and 1972.   

[Max Power]

Probably Angus King or Jesse Ventura independent or the American Marijuana Party

[Brandon H]

The Republicans and Democrats are only a few steps away from giving one of the third parties the big break they need.

If the Democrats, fearing of what happened in 2004 decide they need to move away from the far left, social liberals will join the Green Party.

If the Republicans keep spending (without raising taxes) economic conservatives will jump to the Libertarian or Constitution Parties. And if social conservatives don't see results in issues such as abortion and illegal immigration, they will jump to the Constitution Party.

[King]

The Pansexual Peace Party!

[The Man From G.O.P.]

the videogame party- getting respect for all the losers out there

slogan "we roxor, you're a bunch of noobs and haxors!"


seriously guys, thats why we need to kill them all off, before this really does happen