Let the 2012 Presidential Election Begin

[Progressive]

Well?

[pbrower2a]

Will the rich buy the election,  further consolidating an absolute plutocracy?

[Bull Moose Base]

The senate results give Romney a big boost imo.

[Poundingtherock]

From CNN tonight

South Carolina

Palin 25%
Huckabee 24%
Romney 20%
Newt 10%

Iowa

Huckabee 21%
Romney 21%
Palin 18%
Newt 7%

New Hampshire

Romney 39%
Palin 18%
Huckabee 11%
Newt 8%

[Joe Biden 2020]

Might as well get started campaigning as nothing will get done in Washington the next two years.  I don't see Speaker-elect Boehner working at all with Majority Leader Reid or President Obama.

[Mr. Morden]

Most of the potential candidates seem to be deferring their official entry into the race until February or March.  The best bets for candidates who might conceivably announce this month are John Bolton, Herman Cain, George Pataki, Rick Santorum, or some random congressman who know one is talking about.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It's somewhat strange that we'll never hear "what about Charlie Crist?"

[feeblepizza]

I'm ready to see announcements come in December from some people like Bolton, Santorum, Pataki, or Johnson.

Pence will run as long as Becky Skillman stays out of the Governor's race, in which case he will run for Governor. We know that that won't happen, so he is basically going to use his influence to run a long-shot presidential bid.

[Psychic Octopus]

The senate results give Romney a big boost imo.

Agreed on that front. Palin is going to be quite embarassed when Murkowski wins, whenever that may be. While Palin was front and center, her annointed "Mama Grizzlies" lost, or did worse then expected in Haley's case. Plus, she will have the entire GOP establishment opposing her.

Not sure if this benefits Romney, but he largely played the role of a backdoor operator this cycle. He campaigned hard for the GOP, and didn't make "game-changing" endorsements that can be portrayed as costing the GOP several seats. Not sure if that can be viewed as a plus or a negative, though.

[Vepres]

The senate results give Romney a big boost imo.

Agreed on that front. Palin is going to be quite embarassed when Murkowski wins, whenever that may be. While Palin was front and center, her annointed "Mama Grizzlies" lost, or did worse then expected in Haley's case. Plus, she will have the entire GOP establishment opposing her.

Not sure if this benefits Romney, but he largely played the role of a backdoor operator this cycle. He campaigned hard for the GOP, and didn't make "game-changing" endorsements that can be portrayed as costing the GOP several seats. Not sure if that can be viewed as a plus or a negative, though.

I feel like the "Palin-wing" of the Tea Party will begin to fizzle out.

[Psychic Octopus]

The senate results give Romney a big boost imo.

Agreed on that front. Palin is going to be quite embarassed when Murkowski wins, whenever that may be. While Palin was front and center, her annointed "Mama Grizzlies" lost, or did worse then expected in Haley's case. Plus, she will have the entire GOP establishment opposing her.

Not sure if this benefits Romney, but he largely played the role of a backdoor operator this cycle. He campaigned hard for the GOP, and didn't make "game-changing" endorsements that can be portrayed as costing the GOP several seats. Not sure if that can be viewed as a plus or a negative, though.

I feel like the "Palin-wing" of the Tea Party will begin to fizzle out.

The Palin wing, I have a feeling, will be integrated into the national GOP, while the Paul wing will not. The Paulites will continue their cause, but without the rebranded Republicans in the Tea Party, will be considerably weaker.

I don't know how the "purification" drive will work out. If the GOP has any sense, the "Buckley Rule" will once more supplant the "Limbaugh Rule."

[nhmagic]

Someone asked What About Charlie Crist?

Thats actually a real good question:  Hes one of two people who could throw a wrench in Obamas 2012 math.  Either he or Mike Bloomberg could be the John Anderson or Ross Perot of 2012 and siphon off plenty of Obama votes allowing Sarah Palin, if she ran and won the nomination to win.  And Charlie Crist is so into himself that I could see him doing it...

[Mr. Morden]

Someone asked What About Charlie Crist?

Thats actually a real good question:  Hes one of two people who could throw a wrench in Obamas 2012 math.  Either he or Mike Bloomberg could be the John Anderson or Ross Perot of 2012 and siphon off plenty of Obama votes allowing Sarah Palin, if she ran and won the nomination to win.  And Charlie Crist is so into himself that I could see him doing it...

Where would Crist get the $ to wage a hopeless national campaign for the presidency?

Heck, where would he get the $ just to round up enough signatures for 50 state ballots?

[memphis]

The GOP primary voters are intent on nominating a nutter. Biggest cakewalk for us since 1964.

[nhmagic]

Someone asked What About Charlie Crist?

Thats actually a real good question:  Hes one of two people who could throw a wrench in Obamas 2012 math.  Either he or Mike Bloomberg could be the John Anderson or Ross Perot of 2012 and siphon off plenty of Obama votes allowing Sarah Palin, if she ran and won the nomination to win.  And Charlie Crist is so into himself that I could see him doing it...

Where would Crist get the $ to wage a hopeless national campaign for the presidency?

Heck, where would he get the $ just to round up enough signatures for 50 state ballots?

There are some people in the world who are just like Crist.  They are the type that smarm and sleaze their way into positions of power and prestige.  They also help others who are just like themselves if it benefits their interests.  Crist has many moneyed friends and he is more narcissistic than Bill Clinton and Barack Obama ever dreamed of being.  Crist believed that he deserved to be senator and he could also believe that he deserves to be president.  Additionally, there might be power brokers within the democratic party who want to primary Obama out for their own benefit.  Bill and Hillary Clinton could be sensing opportunity, an opportunity which has only now presented itself  - and it would be unwise and unseemly for her to challenge Obama, but if he could throw Crist into the mix, it may be possible for Hillary to run in 2016 against whatever republican is to win 2012. 

It sounds like a big conspiracy, yes, but Hillary has been hiding out with purpose.  She doesnt want to be associated with the faliures of the past two years and current administration...

[J. J.]

The GOP primary voters are intent on nominating a nutter. Biggest cakewalk for us since 1964.

That is what they said in 1980.

[Lincoln Republican]

Barring some cataclysmic event, Obama and Biden will be the Democratic ticket in 2012.

For the Republicans, Romney, Huckabee, and Palin are currently the big names.   However, as much as I believe Romney would make a great President, and as much as I would like to see him in the Oval Office, I also believe there is a distinct possibility that none of these will be carrying the flag for the GOP in 2012. 

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

The GOP primary voters are intent on nominating a nutter. Biggest cakewalk for us since 1964.

That is what they said in 1980.

Yeah, but there is actually a chance of winning this time, barring that Iran decides to hold more Americans hostage.

[auburntiger]

I think this may be the default map now. Afterall, demographics are changing, if a little bit all the time.

Ohio I believe will be lean-R, and Colorado, Nevada will be tossup-lean Dem.


I think a Bob MCDonnell/?? ticket for example could look like this:

Gop trades Wisconsin for COlorado

[Guderian]

Nevada is not going for Obama in a close election. Close election means the national economy is still not showing significant improvement, and without a national recovery Nevada will hit rock bottom in two years. Don't extrapolate too much from one Senate race.

[auburntiger]

One could make a strong case for bob mcdonnell. Other than mtch daniels, I think anyone who could get the nomination is already being mentioned. It's two years away. I think in 2016, republicans will have a very deep pool of candidates to choose from.   

[All Along The Watchtower]

The GOP nominee will probably be Jeb Bush.

[Whacker77]

The GOP nominee will probably be Jeb Bush.

I think this is the most likely outcome for several reasons.  First, the announced group is nothing but a bunch of retreads from the 2008 campaign.  Huckabee might win the Iowa primary, but the rest of the map is daunting for him.  Mitt stands a better chance, but he's a flip flopping phony who couldn't beat a decrepit John McCain.  That leaves the half term governor, Sarah Palin.  No one I mentioned can beat a beatable Obama in 2012.

Within the next six months, I think fear will overcome lots of Republicans about the electoral disaster that would be Sarah Palin.  It's great that Rush loves her, but she is the McGovern of Republicans.  Once fear overwhelms the bulk of the GOP, they'll make numerous trips to South Beach to beg Jeb to run.  He may not be receptive at first, but they'll impress upon him the idea the party needs him in order to win.

Jeb is actually in a position to wait because he can set up campaign and financial infrastructure in a heartbeat.  Just as importantly, Republicans will flock to him because he would be perceived as a winner.  There will certainly be holdouts, but they will be few and far in between.  As for Bush fatigue, well there could well be Obama fatigue by then, especially after his comments to 60 Minutes that the midterm losses were due to poor messaging.

Jeb provides the party with a credible opponent who locks down Florida.  His Hispanic wife and his fluency in Spanish bodes well for Nevada and Colorado.  That basically leaves Ohio which is far more friendly with John Kasich at the helm.  He is also the one guy who can unite the establishment and Tea Party.

I know he may be looking towards 2016, but better to strike while the iron is hot.  Just ask Mario Cuomo and Hillary.  As Joe Kennedy once said, when your plate is full, eat.

[California8429]

From above, Colorado really isn't that democratic guys. The problem is the GOP is completly unorganized and in chaos for the past couple of years. After our CC meeting in a few months, we'll have a complete new slate of strong leadership and you'll see us back with even more power. All the wins in Colorado were with terrible campaigns and party leaderships, wait for what happens with good campaigns and excellent leadership.

[pbrower2a]

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/11/05/5413158-first-thoughts-what-we-learned|This is what First Read sees three days after the Election of 2010:

Solid Dem: DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT
Likely Dem: CA, CT, IL, ME, WA, OR
Lean Dem: IA, MI, MN, NJ, PA
Toss-up: CO, FL, NV, NH, NM, OH, VA, WI (white)
Lean GOP: MO, MT, NE (one EV), NC,
Likely GOP: AL, AR, AZ, GA, IN, LA, MS, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX
Solid GOP: AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY

NE-02 (Greater Omaha) would be in light blue.

This is based on a 50-50 election without knowing who the Republican opponent will be.

Obama would probably win all states colored in any shade of red and split those in white. Almost any plurality would give him enough electoral votes with which to win outright.

A 53-47 split for Obama probably gives him everything in white and something in pale blue. (I concur that Indiana  goes to him only in an electoral blowout, as the perfect scenario for him winning the state in a somewhat-close election will not be repeated. He won't have any logistical advantage in a state that he had such an advantage (operating from Chicago) that a Democrat needs in a close election, and he will campaign elsewhere if he must and not campaign there if the election is certain.   

A 53-47 split probably has the Republican winning everything in any shade of blue and everything in white, and quite possibly picking off a state in pink.

Any wider split indicates conditions vastly different from what they are now -- like an economic recovery or collapse, either of which is possible, spectacular success in the GOP winning over voters who voted for GOP candidates for the House in 2012  as a permanent change in the culture or  complete failure of them in charge of the House, an unusually incompetent or charismatic GOP nominee, and of course spectacular blunders by either the President or his opponent. 55-45 splits indicate a major change of the political culture in the next two years.