CA: Public Policy Polling: Boxer (D) leads by 4 in final poll

[Sbane]

I still hope for a Fiorina upset. Boxer is one of the worst senators the Senate has seen. The Central Valley is going to give Fiorina a landslide margin. The polls might be underestimating Republican turnout since California hasn't had a competitive senate election in about 12 years.

California elections aren't decided in the central valley. How is Fiorina doing in suburban LA county? That is what will decide this election.

[Sbane]

Boxer has a big lead in the final SUSA poll.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=be46a92b-9a28-456a-90d1-84e9bb60cd4a

This poll might be a tad too favorable to the Democrats. But most of that is due to the cellphone sample they are including with their normal poll. They also show prop 19 as being much closer than anyone else out there (still losing). We will see if they are right.

[Sbane]

I still hope for a Fiorina upset. Boxer is one of the worst senators the Senate has seen. The Central Valley is going to give Fiorina a landslide margin. The polls might be underestimating Republican turnout since California hasn't had a competitive senate election in about 12 years.

California elections aren't decided in the central valley. How is Fiorina doing in suburban LA county? That is what will decide this election.

She is a lock in Orange County and the Inland Empire. San Diego is probably leaning strongly towards her, as are Ventura and San Luis Obispo. It will actually probably come down to whether or not she can get around 40% in suburban parts of the Bay Area that puts her over the top.

Yes, she is a lock in Orange County, IE as well as the Central valley. That is why the race is even close to begin with. You are absolutely right that she will have to do well in certain parts of the bay area like Contra Costa county and Solano. And she will at least need 37-38% out of Santa Clara. LA county suburbs are the other battleground. CA-36, 29, 27 etc. These are the CD's where she needs to put up respectable numbers in order to win.

[Sbane]

Boxer has a big lead in the final SUSA poll.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=be46a92b-9a28-456a-90d1-84e9bb60cd4a

Crappy poll. Undecideds are too high or overestimated. I wouldn't be feeling relaxed if I were Boxer knowing I have only 46% support after being a senator for 18 years. The wave in the East could very much influence voters to turn out and support Fiorina and Whitman whereas they might have been disinclined to do so beforehand.

If you look at the crosstabs, the high undecideds are mostly from the cell phone samples. I doubt those people actually vote. Another nail in the coffin for Prop 19.