UK 2005- Seat by Seat projection Part 1 (North London)

[Silent Hunter]

http://www.financialcalculus.co.uk/election/

This will be in multiple parts. I'll try and call all 650 or so seats.

First up- North London
(Incumbent in brackets, if open then none)
Barking  (Margaret Hodge): She's Children's Minister and Barking is solidly Labour. LAB Hold.
Bethnal Green and Bow (Oona King): Galloway's turning up in this ethnic minority constituency means that this pro-war MP will be in for one rough ride. Expect this to be very nasty. I don't think Galloway can do it, but I could be wrong. LAB Hold.
Brent East (Sarah Teather): The by-election was probably a protest vote and this may well go back. LAB gain from LD.
Brent North (Barry Gardiner): He's a minister now. LAB Hold.
Brent South  (Paul Boetang): He's an ethnic minority candidate in an ethnic minority borough. Plus he's in the Cabinet.  LAB Hold
Chingford and Woodford Green  (Iain Duncan Smith): He may have been sacked by his party, but he won't be by the electors. CON Hold.
Chipping Barnet  (Sydney Chapman):  Don't know enough for this. CON Hold.
Cities of London and Westminster  (Mark Field): It's a business vote.  CON Hold
Dagenham  (Jon Cruddas): White, East End. He may be furniture, but this went Labour in 1983.  LAB Hold
East Ham  (Stephen Timms): See above.  LAB Hold
Edmonton  (Andy Love):  LAB Hold
Enfield North  (Joan Ryan):  LAB Hold
Enfield Southgate  (Stephen Twigg): This was the election night surprise in 1997 when Portillo was unseated. The Tories have very little chance of taking it back. LAB Hold
Finchley and Golders Green  (Rudi Vis): On different boundaries this was Thatcher's old seat. If the Tories have a decent night, they could pick it up. On current projections, they won't. LAB Hold
Hackney North and Stoke Newington  (Diane Abbott): Private school, schmivate school.  LAB Hold.
Hackney South and Shoreditch  (Brian Sedgemore): LAB Hold
Hammersmith and Fulham  (Iain Coleman)  LAB CON Gain
Hampstead and Highgate  (Glenda Jackson):  LAB Hold
Harrow East  (Tony McNulty):  LAB Hold
Harrow West  (Gareth Thomas):  LAB Hold
Hendon  (Andrew Dismore):  LAB Hold
Holborn and St Pancras  (Frank Dobson)  LAB Hold
Hornchurch  (John Cryer): A marginal, which could go either way. Small swing needed, but popular rebellious MP. NO CALL. 
Hornsey and Wood Green:  (Barbara Roche)  LAB Hold
Ilford North  (Linda Perham):  CON Gain from LAB: Perham's in trouble. She needs a small swing to unseat her and it will probably happen.
Ilford South  (Mike Gapes):  LAB Hold
Islington North  (Jeremy Corbyn): LAB Hold
Islington South and Finsbury: The Liberals second placed but they won't win this time. LAB Hold.
Kensington and Chelsea: Portillo's gone, but this seat is staying Tory. CON Hold
Leyton and Wanstead  (Harry Cohen): LAB Hold.
Poplar and Canning Town  (Jim Fitzpatrick): No Galloway, no problem. He'll walk this. LAB Hold.
Regent's Park and Kensington North  (Karen Buck): LAB Hold.
Romford  (Andrew Rosindell): New dog, new term. Surprisingly this was Labour under different boundaries from 1955-1970. CON HOLD
Tottenham  (David Lammy): LAB HOLD
Upminster  (Angela Watkinson): This was one of the few Tory pickups in 2001. Last election on these boundaries, then it ends up safe Tory. CON HOLD
Walthamstow  (Neil Gerrard) LAB HOLD
West Ham: Banks is retiring (and insulted his constituents into the bargain), but his successor will have a clear run. LAB Hold

[Ben.]

Bethnal Green and Bow (Oona King): Galloway's turning up in this ethnic minority constituency means that this pro-war MP will be in for one rough ride. Expect this to be very nasty. I don't think Galloway can do it, but I could be wrong. LAB Hold.

Some of the folks from Old Queen where saying that Galloway may instead be standing in Poplar and Canning Town... either way i doubt that he'll manage to win either, added to that In Bethnal Green the Tories will take a fair few votes with a well known Bengali candidate.

Brent could be interesting, Teather has entrenched herself well, but in a general election with a much higher turnout and without the protest vote I think that Labour will retake it, and the same will be true of Leicester South where Gill has had a pretty disastrous last few weeks and been an invisible presence in the area while Peter Soulsby (reselected) has already been out campaigning in preparation for the General Election. If Brent goes back to Labour then Leicester most certainly will, Brum HH will also probably see Liam Bryn (who by all accounts has been working his ass off and been being a very diligent and visible constituency MP) returned with a much increased majority with a much larger turnout (say 5-8,000 or so) at any rate the LibDems will be too busy in neighbouring Yardley, and from what I remember of the by-election Nokia Davis was not much liked by the Liberal Associations in the neighbouring areas.

Also, In Islington South Chris Smith is stepping down and the Liberals are very strong in the seat indeed.

[Peter]

Also, In Islington South Chris Smith is stepping down and the Liberals are very strong in the seat indeed.

I actually know the Labour candidate, she's a lawyer and her name is Emily Thornberry. I told I would go and help campaign as we get closer to the election - should be an absolute dogfight with the Lib Dems.

[Dave from Michigan]

Hornsey and Wood Green:  (Barbara Roche)  LAB Hold
 
 
2001
Barbara Roche Labour  49.9% 
Lynne Featherstone Liberal Democrat  25.8%
Jason Hollands Conservative  15.7%


My Cousin live in this district,  I knew it went labor, but it  looks like theres no chance of it switching.  I wonder if the conservatives will even get 20%

[English]

There'll be few surprises here. London is swinging towards Labour, like most urban areas.

Barking  (Margaret Hodge):  LAB Hold.
Bethnal Green and Bow (Oona King): LAB Hold.
Brent East (Sarah Teather):  LAB gain from LD.
Brent North (Barry Gardiner):  LAB Hold by narrow margin.
Brent South  (Paul Boetang): LAB Hold
Chingford and Woodford Green  (Iain Duncan Smith): CON Hold.
Chipping Barnet  (Sydney Chapman): CON Hold.
Cities of London and Westminster  (Mark Field):  CON Hold
Dagenham  (Jon Cruddas):  LAB Hold
East Ham  (Stephen Timms):  LAB Hold
Edmonton  (Andy Love):  LAB Hold
Enfield North  (Joan Ryan):  LAB Hold
Enfield Southgate  (Stephen Twigg):  LAB Hold
Finchley and Golders Green  (Rudi Vis):  LAB Hold
Hackney North and Stoke Newington  (Diane Abbott): LAB Hold.
Hackney South and Shoreditch  (Brian Sedgemore): LAB Hold
Hammersmith and Fulham  (Iain Coleman)  LAB Hold
Hampstead and Highgate  (Glenda Jackson):  LAB Hold
Harrow East  (Tony McNulty):  LAB Hold
Harrow West  (Gareth Thomas):  CON Gain
Hendon  (Andrew Dismore):  LAB Hold
Holborn and St Pancras  (Frank Dobson)  LAB Hold
Hornchurch  (John Cryer): CON Gain
Hornsey and Wood Green:  (Barbara Roche)  LAB Hold
Ilford North  (Linda Perham):  LAB Hold
Ilford South  (Mike Gapes):  LAB Hold
Islington North  (Jeremy Corbyn): LAB Hold by narrow margin
Islington South and Finsbury: LAB Hold.
Kensington and Chelsea: CON Hold
Leyton and Wanstead  (Harry Cohen): LAB Hold.
Poplar and Canning Town  (Jim Fitzpatrick): LAB Hold.
Regent's Park and Kensington North  (Karen Buck): LAB Hold.
Romford  (Andrew Rosindell): New dog, new term. CON HOLD
Tottenham  (David Lammy): LAB HOLD
Upminster  (Angela Watkinson): CON HOLD
Walthamstow  (Neil Gerrard) LAB HOLD
West Ham  (Tony Banks): LAB Hold

Only changes are Hornchurch and Harrow West. Both to the Tories. Ilford North could be tricky though.

[Silent Hunter]

Labour needs to top a majority of 130 for Cryer to retain his seat. The new calculations on Electoral Calculus give Labour 134 and Cryer keeping his seat- just (0.31%).

[Silent Hunter]

Banks, the former Sports Minister is retiring from West Ham. He's obviously going if he just insulted his constituents:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4047123.stm

[Silent Hunter]

Updated.

[Ben.]

Hornsey and Wood Green:  (Barbara Roche)  LAB Hold
 
 
2001
Barbara Roche Labour  49.9% 
Lynne Featherstone Liberal Democrat  25.8%
Jason Hollands Conservative  15.7%


My Cousin live in this district,  I knew it went labor, but it  looks like theres no chance of it switching.  I wonder if the conservatives will even get 20%

Its very possible from the folks I've spoken to that it could go to the LDs, Labour have lots of seats to defend in London and Tory gains in the suburbs are certian, but the LDs will try and hang on in Brent East while moving agaist Hornsey and Islington South, despite a bigger majoirty i think Hornsey will be more likley to go to the LDs.   

[JohnFKennedy]

Banks, the former Sports Minister is retiring from West Ham. He's obviously going if he just insulted his constituents:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4047123.stm

My father was once arrested with Tony Banks, heh.....