US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[minionofmidas]

Ugh, I'm represented by that ass Pitts.

Does that mean the Congressional map is out?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Ugh, I'm represented by that ass Pitts.

Does that mean the Congressional map is out?

No, but I have him now and I'll probably have him in the map since he refuses to give up Lancaster County.

[lowtech redneck]

Ugh, I'm represented by that ass Pitts.

Does that mean the Congressional map is out?

No, but I have him now and I'll probably have him in the map since he refuses to give up Lancaster County.

What leverage does he have (aside from seniority perks, I guess) over the rest of the Pennsylvanian Republican party to keep it?

BTW, are there any other counties/cities in Pennsylvania that simply won't accept being divided into separate congressional districts?  For instance, would there be a strong backlash against dividing Harrisburg or Reading?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Reading is already divided.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Yup, Reading was cut into three or so pieces in 2000. Since they might create part of a D-leaning district if they were made whole, they're cut up and only serve to make Republican districts slightly less Republican.

We really need a nonpartisan redistricting commission a la Arizona or Florida.

[muon2]

Yup, Reading was cut into three or so pieces in 2000. Since they might create part of a D-leaning district if they were made whole, they're cut up and only serve to make Republican districts slightly less Republican.

We really need a nonpartisan redistricting commission a la Arizona or Florida.

AZ isn't looking so nonpartisan this year.

[Torie]

Yup, Reading was cut into three or so pieces in 2000. Since they might create part of a D-leaning district if they were made whole, they're cut up and only serve to make Republican districts slightly less Republican.

We really need a nonpartisan redistricting commission a la Arizona or Florida.

AZ isn't looking so nonpartisan this year.

Yes, but AZ is a hell of a lot of fun this year isn't it? 

[jimrtex]

We really need a nonpartisan redistricting commission a la Arizona or Florida.

The legislature does the redistricting in Florida.  This is so that they can get sued and have the Florida Supreme Court draw it.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I lost the map before I could post it (and I evidently forgot to fill in a few tiny precincts that I failed to spot the first time I filled in the districts), but it was looking pretty good for Democrats without being a gross gerrymander.

I think it was something like this:

1st: Erie, western Crawford, Mercer, and most of Lawrence. Beaver was either in this one or in:
2nd: Washington, Greene, Fayette, a little of Westmoreland, and the non-Pittsburgh parts of Allegheny
3rd: Eastern Crawford, Venango, Butler, Armstrong, Elk, Clarion, Forest, Jefferson, Cameron, Warren, McKean
4th: Pittsburgh (central Allegheny county)
5th: A few Allegheny suburbs, Westmoreland, Indiana, Cambria, Somerset, parts of Blair
6th: Lackawanna, Luzerne, Carbon, part of Monroe
7th: Potter, Clinton, most of Centre, Tioga, Lycoming, Sullivan, Bradford, Susquehanna, Wyoming, Wayne, Pike, part of Monroe
8th: Part of Blair, part of Centre, Clearfield, Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, Huntingdon, Union, Snyder, Mifflin, Juniata, Perry, western Cumberland
9th: Eastern Cumberland, Dauphin, Northern York
10th: Adams, Southern York, Southern Lancaster, Southern Chester
11th: Lebanon, northern Lancaster, northern Chester
12th: Eastern Chester, northern Delaware, southeast Montgomery (KOP)
13th: Southern Delaware and the entire coast of Philadelphia along the Delaware
14th: Central Philadelphia (majority black, over 90% Obama)
15th: Bucks, parts of NE Philly, parts of SE Montgomery
16th: Northumberland, Montour, Columbia, most of Berks, Schuylkill
17th: Lehigh, Northampton, parts of Berks, possibly a sliver of Montgomery
18th: South-central Montgomery, parts of northern Philadelphia

[Brittain33]

Rumors of a leaked map showing Holden getting Scranton but not Wilkes-Barre (!)

http://citizensvoice.com/news/reapportionment-effort-favors-barletta-marino-1.1234491

[minionofmidas]

Seems they will indeed not get too greedy in the southwest, either.

[Brittain33]

Seems they will indeed not get too greedy in the southwest, either.

The counties they are giving to Barletta indicate how much to the west Shuster's district is shifting.

[Torie]

Rumors of a leaked map showing Holden getting Scranton but not Wilkes-Barre (!)

http://citizensvoice.com/news/reapportionment-effort-favors-barletta-marino-1.1234491

Hardly surprising what they did with the Holden district. It is the only way to keep all the Pubbie incumbents reasonably secure. Wilkes-Barre is far less toxic than Scranton to a Pubbie. It can rather easily be neutralized. My map does not put WB in Holden's CD either. His CD had more pressing Dem nodes to suck up. 

[Keystone Phil]

I wonder how badly a Harrisburg-Scranton 17th will screw us when Holden leaves. It won't be the almost guaranteed pickup it was looking to be.

[Torie]

Holden's CD if drawn that way will be safe Dem by design, and he will need to tack left or run the risk of being primaried.  It would be a pity if the Pubs didn't chop Schuylkill.  It has some prime GOP territory in it outside the Dem zone Holden lives in. It just begs to be chopped.

[minionofmidas]

It's just the kind of thing redistricters shy away from for no really good reason unless there's no alternative, somehow.

[Torie]

It's just the kind of thing redistricters shy away from for no really good reason unless there's no alternative, somehow.

True, but the partisan numbers are tight up there in NE PA. Pubs need to be imported in from the west as it were, to get out of the danger zone.

[Keystone Phil]

I doubt Holden would be toppled in a primary. It would have to be a very liberal district for some activist/non-elected official to topple him since I don't know of any prominent elected official that would want to take him on. He's very personally popular.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hmmm I deleted my post so I could write up a more detailed one and now Phil's post looks weird. Anyway I commented that if the seat is made too safe Holden could be primaried, though Phil is probably correct. So this is roughly what these seats described might look like:



The 17th is around 55% Obama and 53% Dem average, the 11th is 52.6 McCain to 46.1% Obama and about a point more Republican in the average. Yeah Holden probably would be fine, a more liberal Democrat could certainly be elected if he retired though.

[krazen1211]

Seems they will indeed not get too greedy in the southwest, either.

The goal it seems to ensure very liberal primary electorates so nutters like Murphy and Trivedi get nominated.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL there's a town in Lycoming County called "Loyalsockville". That has a lot of possible interpretations in relation to this forum.

[TeePee4Prez]

LOL there's a town in Lycoming County called "Loyalsockville". That has a lot of possible interpretations in relation to this forum.

Try Lancaster County for numerous sexual innuendos for town names.

[minionofmidas]

LOL there's a town in Lycoming County called "Loyalsockville". That has a lot of possible interpretations in relation to this forum.

I've pointed that out once before on here.

[jimrtex]

LOL there's a town in Lycoming County called "Loyalsockville". That has a lot of possible interpretations in relation to this forum.

It is a corruption of Lawi-sahquick which means "middle creek", the township was named after the creek and the town (-ville) after the township.

[Brittain33]

If the 5th district loses Lycoming and Tioga to the 10th, what does that mean? Splitting Erie County and putting some Democrats from the 3rd into the 5th.

http://www.goerie.com/article/20111120/NEWS02/311209955/Part-of-Erie-County-expected-to-be-carved-out-of-3rd-Congressional-District

Presumably this helps the 3rd slide south and soak up some territory released by the merger of 4th and 12th. Perhaps even some Democratic territory in Beaver County, and that's why they have to split Erie? What else could it be?