IL: Chicago Tribune/WGN: Kirk 44% Giannoulias 41%

[mypalfish]

Kirk 44%
Giannoulias 41%

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/elections/ct-met-us-senate-campaign-20101024,0,6957258.story

[Franzl]

Now that's very interesting.

[Meeker]

Methinks Kirk has an edge at this point. A shame.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, finally flipping this one... still a tossup though.

[Tender Branson]

It´s a registered voter poll too ...

...

[Meeker]

21% Undecided in Chicago?

[Tender Branson]

21% Undecided in Chicago?

Not really, because the "others" are in this as well. And Jones & Labno are getting 5 & 4%.

[Meeker]

21% Undecided in Chicago?

Not really, because the "others" are in this as well. And Jones & Labno are getting 5 & 4%.

Is that a higher percentage than what they're getting in other parts of the state?

[Tender Branson]

21% Undecided in Chicago?

Not really, because the "others" are in this as well. And Jones & Labno are getting 5 & 4%.

Is that a higher percentage than what they're getting in other parts of the state?

The 5 & 4% are the statewide figures, it´s not mentioned what share they have in each area.

[Eraserhead]

21% Undecided in Chicago?

Those are the dead people, you see. The party bosses haven't decided how they'll vote yet.

[Landslide Lyndon]

FWIW, PPP had 23% of Democrats undecided in their last poll (and only 6% of Republicans).

[Dgov]

21% Undecided in Chicago?

Not really, because the "others" are in this as well. And Jones & Labno are getting 5 & 4%.

Is that a higher percentage than what they're getting in other parts of the state?

I assume so.  Seeing as the 3rd-parties are pretty Left-wing (from what I can tell), it makes sense they'd be doing much better than average in the most Liberal part of the state (like how Nader did 3-4 times better in Travis County than in texas as a whole).

What surprises me is that Krik is losing suburban Cook county, which is his home region.

[cinyc]

I assume so.  Seeing as the 3rd-parties are pretty Left-wing (from what I can tell), it makes sense they'd be doing much better than average in the most Liberal part of the state (like how Nader did 3-4 times better in Travis County than in texas as a whole).

What surprises me is that Krik is losing suburban Cook county, which is his home region.

Suburban Cook County isn't as monolithic as one might think.  There are white suburbs, black suburbs, Hispanic suburbs, Jewish suburbs, rich suburbs, middle-class suburbs, and even some poor suburbs.  Kirk only represents a fraction of suburban Cook County - the far north Cook county suburbs.  His IL-10 also includes a good portion of Lake County.

Kirk is probably doing well in most North and Northwest Cook County suburbs and not as well in the West and South Cook County suburbs, which tend to be more heavily minority and poorer (with many exceptions, of course - for every Harvey, there's an Oak Park or Tinley Park).  

[muon2]

21% Undecided in Chicago?

Not really, because the "others" are in this as well. And Jones & Labno are getting 5 & 4%.

The body of the article says 15% undecided in Chicago, so I assume that removes the 3rd party candidates.

Seeing as the 3rd-parties are pretty Left-wing (from what I can tell), it makes sense they'd be doing much better than average in the most Liberal part of the state (like how Nader did 3-4 times better in Travis County than in texas as a whole).

The Libertarian Labno is being supported by some conservatives who can't bring themselves to vote for Kirk given his record on social issues.

[Dgov]

The Libertarian Labno is being supported by some conservatives who can't bring themselves to vote for Kirk given his record on social issues.

isn't that kind of counter-intuitive?  I mean, voting for a Libertarian because you don't support the Republican's position on Abortion?

[Landslide Lyndon]

This race reminds me somewhat the house race at Wyoming in 2006 and 2008. Till the last days the polls showed the Dem candidate tied or even ahead, but with a significant number of undecided Republicans.
In the end though they came home and the Republican candidate eventually won.

[Eraserhead]

The Libertarian Labno is being supported by some conservatives who can't bring themselves to vote for Kirk given his record on social issues.

isn't that kind of counter-intuitive?  I mean, voting for a Libertarian because you don't support the Republican's position on Abortion?

I guess it depends on whether he's a Ron Paul libertarian or an actual libertarian.