KS21's Congressional Predictions

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House:

+50-60

DEM PICKUPS

LA-02
DE-AL
IL-10

GOP PICKUPS

Not going to waste my time listing all of them

Senate:

LEAN/LIKELY/SAFE DEM SEATS:

NY (D) HOLD
NYS (D) HOLD
VT (D) HOLD
CT (D) HOLD
DE (D) HOLD
MD (D) HOLD
WA (D) HOLD (could move to tossup)
OR (D) HOLD
HI (D) HOLD

TOSSUPS (Decided by 5% or less)

IL (D) PICKUP
PA (D) HOLD
CO (D) HOLD, for now
MO (R) HOLD, for now
WV (D) HOLD, for now
KY (R) HOLD
NV (D) PICKUP, for now
CA (D) HOLD
AK (I/R) HOLD (Murkowski)

LEAN/LIKELY/SAFE GOP SEATS

AR (D) PICKUP
LA (R) HOLD
OK (R) HOLD
KS (R) HOLD
ND (R) HOLD
IA (R) HOLD
ND (D) PICKUP
SD (R) HOLD
NH (R) HOLD
OH (R) HOLD
IN (D) PICKUP
WI (D) PICKUP
UT (R) HOLD
AZ (R) HOLD
ID (R) HOLD

GOP + 4-9

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Where is Wisconsin and West Virginia?

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Where is Wisconsin and West Virginia?

Forgot them.

I'll fix it.

EDIT: Fixed

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Decrease on PA, CO, and WV. I think WV and NV have both shown similar movement to the GOP in the last week or so.

[TeePee4Prez]

Decrease on PA, CO, and WV. I think WV and NV have both shown similar movement to the GOP in the last week or so.

You sure about PA?  There are 1 million more Democrats than Republicans in PA and Indies typically sit out in midterms.  Still calling for Sestak.

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Decrease on PA, CO, and WV. I think WV and NV have both shown similar movement to the GOP in the last week or so.

You sure about PA?  There are 1 million more Democrats than Republicans in PA and Indies typically sit out in midterms.  Still calling for Sestak.

I am stunned at the swing towards Sestak.

It's incredible.

I'm not really sure what to make of WV other than "Hicky" has backfired. How much remains to be seen, but I still believe it will push Manchin to victory.

And in CO, I see the RCP averages and Buck's lead is getting consistently smaller.

Add in the fact that we have this rape victim making Buck look bad, and I think Bennet will hold the seat, for now.

[Miles]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The only pollsters that show Raese winning are Republican pollsters (Fox and Rasmussen).

Manchin will win.

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

The only pollsters that show Raese winning are Republican pollsters (Fox and Rasmussen).

Manchin will win.

And PPP (Yes, a Dem pollster, but one that doesn't use cell phones) showed a 6-point swing to Manchin.

[Miles]

I hate how PPP is labeled a "Democratic pollster."

Its so accurate.

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I hate how PPP is labeled a "Democratic pollster."

Its so accurate.

It does internals for Democrats, so in that way it is a Democratic pollster.

However, the polls it does that are not internals are usually incredibly accurate.

[Miles]

So whats your specific House prediction?

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So whats your specific House prediction?

You want the list of all pickups?

Hold on...

[Miles]

Well, just, what do you think the final tally will be?

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AZ-1
AZ-5
CA-11
AR-2
CO-3
CO-4
FL-2
FL-8
FL-22
FL-24
GA-2
GA-8
KS-3
LA-3
MD-1
MI-1
MI-7
MS-1
NV-3 (This is the one I'm least sure about)
NH-1
NM-2
NY-19
NY-24
NY-25
NY-29
NC-7
NC-8
ND-AL
OH-1
OH-15
OH-16
OH-18
PA-3
PA-7
PA-8
PA-10
PA-11
SD-AL
TN-4
TN-6
TN-8
TZ-17
TX-23
VA-2
VA-5
VA-11
WA-3
WZ-1
WI-7
WI-8
WI-3
NY-13

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GOP-232

DEM-203

[Miles]

Ouch. That hurts!!!

I see the GOP topping out at 239 as a best case scenario.

Nate Silver's House prediction gets worse by the week...

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Ouch. That hurts!!!

I see the GOP topping out at 239 as a best case scenario.

Nate Silver's House prediction gets worse by the week...

I know.

The House has been getting worse, the Senate is wobbling between 51 and 53 seats.

[SvenssonRS]

You two have no idea how hilarious it is to see nothing but a flood of "This user has been ignored" on this page.

[Miles]

Nate Silver has Gene Taylor losing and Grijalva winning with 51%!!!! ahhhh!!!!

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Nate Silver has Gene Taylor losing and Grijalva winning with 51%!!!! ahhhh!!!!

Well, Grijalva is too left-wing even for his district.

Gene Taylor losing would be a shame.

[Miles]

You two have no idea how hilarious it is to see nothing but a flood of "This user has been ignored" on this page.

If i had good WiFi, I'd post my picture of Robert Byrd right here!!!

[Miles]

Nate Silver has Gene Taylor losing and Grijalva winning with 51%!!!! ahhhh!!!!

Well, Grijalva is too left-wing even for his district.

Gene Taylor losing would be a shame.

But remember Bonn saying that Grijalva was SAFE.

That just shows you hw bad it is out there....

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You two have no idea how hilarious it is to see nothing but a flood of "This user has been ignored" on this page.

If i had good WiFi, I'd post my picture of Robert Byrd right here!!!

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Nate Silver has Gene Taylor losing and Grijalva winning with 51%!!!! ahhhh!!!!

Well, Grijalva is too left-wing even for his district.

Gene Taylor losing would be a shame.

But remember Bonn saying that Grijalva was SAFE.

That just shows you hw bad it is out there....

I know. It looks like Bonn's prediction may be wrong this year, which is a very bad sign.

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There's been talk about Adam Smith up in Washington being vulnerable, along with Rick Larsen...