CT: Suffolk University: Blumenthal (D) destroys McMahon

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Connecticut Senator by Suffolk University on 2010-10-20

Summary: D: 57%, R: 39%, I: 2%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, don´t know what to think of Suffolk.

They got the Brown vs. Coakley race right within 1 point, but showed Corzine winning by 9, when he lost by 3. Their Virginia poll was OK with McDonnell ahead by 14.

I think this result is too high, Blumenthal should win by about 56-42 or so.

[cinyc]

The strangest thing about this poll is that in Suffolk's own hand-picked bellwether town, Plainfield, Blumenthal only leads by 4, 46-42.  I'm not sure what their bellwether sample size was, but it is totally out of line with the topline.

[Sam Spade]

In other words, what you're trying to tell me is that Suffolk is a crappy pollster, outside Massachusetts, maybe.

[cinyc]

In other words, what you're trying to tell me is that Suffolk is a crappy pollster, outside Massachusetts, maybe.

I don't think their NH polling was that bad, either.

The bellwether polling is the most interesting polling Suffolk does.  I'm surprised more pollsters don't try it.

[Tender Branson]

The strangest thing about this poll is that in Suffolk's own hand-picked bellwether town, Plainfield, Blumenthal only leads by 4, 46-42.  I'm not sure what their bellwether sample size was, but it is totally out of line with the topline.

300 Likely Voters in Plainfield.

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/edited.Plainfield.Bellwether.Oct.20.2010.pdf

How did Plainfield vote in 2008 ?

[Tender Branson]

Well, Plainfield was only 54-44 for Obama.

That explains a lot.

[cinyc]

Well, Plainfield was only 54-44 for Obama.

That explains a lot.

I have it as an R+4.64 town (CTPVI, not national PVI).  Suffolk seems to have picked it based on the last midterm results, though.

There are better CT bellwethers in the D+1 to R+1 range - Rocky Hill, Willington, Wethersfield, Waterford, South Windsor and Plainville, among others.

[Lief 🗽]

It's always nice to see people who try to buy elections lose.

[mypalfish]

Sorry fellow GOPers, but this is not going to be that good of an election night if a terrible candidate who gave the worst debate answer in the history of debates to the simple question of "how do you create a job" is just thoroughly destroying his opponent.  If this was going to be anything approaching a "wave", "tidalwave" or "tsunami", this race would be close and go down to the wire.

[mypalfish]

It's always nice to see people who try to buy elections lose.

Like a Herb Kohl, for example?

[cinyc]

Sorry fellow GOPers, but this is not going to be that good of an election night if a terrible candidate who gave the worst debate answer in the history of debates to the simple question of "how do you create a job" is just thoroughly destroying his opponent.  If this was going to be anything approaching a "wave", "tidalwave" or "tsunami", this race would be close and go down to the wire.

Yeah, because Republicans always win Senate elections in Connecticut, especially when running against a very popular Democratic politician who has held statewide office for decades. 

This race is closer than Suffolk thinks.  We have a huge range in polling from Rasmussen (D+5) Suffolk (D+18).

[Lief 🗽]

It's always nice to see people who try to buy elections lose.

Like a Herb Kohl, for example?

The difference is that Herb Kohl did not buy his Senate seat so that he could cut his taxes.

[mypalfish]

Sorry fellow GOPers, but this is not going to be that good of an election night if a terrible candidate who gave the worst debate answer in the history of debates to the simple question of "how do you create a job" is just thoroughly destroying his opponent.  If this was going to be anything approaching a "wave", "tidalwave" or "tsunami", this race would be close and go down to the wire.

Yeah, because Republicans always win Senate elections in Connecticut, especially when running against a very popular Democratic politician who has held statewide office for decades. 

This race is closer than Suffolk thinks.  We have a huge range in polling from Rasmussen (D+5) Suffolk (D+18).

The race SHOULD have been closer, but it's not.  This is just another year where the GOP candidates fade down the stretch and limp to election day.  Almost all the Senate polls coming out show the Republican losing ground.  If the GOP couldn't kick the Dems a** in this environment, they never will.

[Torie]

I doubt the poll is accurate.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Sorry fellow GOPers, but this is not going to be that good of an election night if a terrible candidate who gave the worst debate answer in the history of debates to the simple question of "how do you create a job" is just thoroughly destroying his opponent.  If this was going to be anything approaching a "wave", "tidalwave" or "tsunami", this race would be close and go down to the wire.

Yeah, because Republicans always win Senate elections in Connecticut, especially when running against a very popular Democratic politician who has held statewide office for decades. 

This race is closer than Suffolk thinks.  We have a huge range in polling from Rasmussen (D+5) Suffolk (D+18).

     Not to mention that this poll is obviously in contrast to other extant polling. Until another pollster shows a similar lead, there is no real reason to believe that this is true.

[Lief 🗽]

Whether he wins by 18 or 8, Blumenthal is going to win this comfortably in 12 days.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And Rasmussen had it 4 pts at one point.

[Associate Justice PiT]

And Rasmussen had it 4 pts at one point.

     And Quinnipiac had it at 3% at one point. Your point being?

[Vepres]

It's always nice to see people who try to buy elections lose.

Like a Herb Kohl, for example?

The difference is that Herb Kohl did not buy his Senate seat so that he could cut his taxes.

Translation: It's okay if the candidate who buys the election is my candidate.

[tpfkaw]

Linda McMahon has spent far more on her senate race than she could ever win back even if all taxes were eliminated.

[Lief 🗽]

It's always nice to see people who try to buy elections lose.

Like a Herb Kohl, for example?

The difference is that Herb Kohl did not buy his Senate seat so that he could cut his taxes.

Translation: It's okay if the candidate who buys the election is my candidate.

That's not what I said at all, but thanks for the worthwhile contribution to the thread.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

We know she's down, but it ain't this bad.