KY: Conway (D) surging in internal

[Tender Branson]

A new poll shows Democrat Jack Conway surging in the Kentucky Senate race. The Bennett, Petts and Normington poll, conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and shared with The Fix, shows Conway at 49 percent and Republican Rand Paul at 47 percent - Conway's best showing in a survey since late June.

The poll was conducted Sunday and Monday, after Conway's campaign began running a controversial new ad questioning Paul's Christian faith. Conway also went after Paul hard during their debate Sunday night - something that could have shown up in polling on Monday.

Democrats are already using the survey to push back at the idea that the ad was an act of desperation by a candidate watching his chances of victory slip away. The last poll to show Conway with a higher share of the vote was a Benenson Strategy Group survey for his campaign four months ago. It showed Conway at 48 percent and Paul at 46 percent. Kentucky is the Democrats' best - and almost certainly only - chance to win a Republican-held seat this fall. Sen. Jim Bunning (R) is retiring after two terms.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/19/AR2010101907311.html

[SvenssonRS]

Not a chance, Jack.

[Eraserhead]

Not a chance, Jack.

Oh, there's a significant chance.

[SvenssonRS]

Not a chance, Jack.

Oh, there's a significant chance.

I'm just waiting for the explosion that's waiting to happen thanks to his insulting Paul's religion. It happened to Dole, and it can happen to him. Well-deserved, too, since he was basically saying Paul just isn't Christian enough for the Senate.

Plus, it's Kentucky in 2010.

[Smash255]

Not a chance, Jack.

Oh, there's a significant chance.

I'm just waiting for the explosion that's waiting to happen thanks to his insulting Paul's religion. It happened to Dole, and it can happen to him. Well-deserved, too, since he was basically saying Paul just isn't Christian enough for the Senate.

Plus, it's Kentucky in 2010.

I think the Kentucky factor is part of the reason why this ad might not backfire actually.  I'm not saying he will win, and this is of course an internal poll, but this should be a race to keep an eye on.  Its not over.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not a chance, Jack.

Oh, there's a significant chance.

I'm just waiting for the explosion that's waiting to happen thanks to his insulting Paul's religion. It happened to Dole, and it can happen to him. Well-deserved, too, since he was basically saying Paul just isn't Christian enough for the Senate.

Plus, it's Kentucky in 2010.

Except for the fact that Dole's ad tried to fool the audience by using a Hagan impersonator, while Conway's ad is accurate according to everybody.

[Lief 🗽]

Not a chance, Jack.

Oh, there's a significant chance.

I'm just waiting for the explosion that's waiting to happen thanks to his insulting Paul's religion. It happened to Dole, and it can happen to him. Well-deserved, too, since he was basically saying Paul just isn't Christian enough for the Senate.

Plus, it's Kentucky in 2010.

Surely the explosion would have happened by now. Instead, post-ad polls show Conway gaining.

[Whacker77]

You can make no such pronouncements about the ad working or not working based on a poll taken Monday.  As I have tried to explain, the media in this state didn't pick up on the story until midday Monday.  It's not reasonable to expect that would immediately filter into a poll taken that night.

As for saying that ad might work in this state, allow me to educate everyone on Kentucky.  Outside of Louisville and Lexington, the voters are culturally conservative and very much prone to support Republicans on the federal level.  Whether you want to call it the Bible belt or not is your choice.  You can call it evangelical or born again as well.

The problem for Conway is two fold.  Conway is from Louisville and there generally an anti-Louisville bias out in the state.  Second and most important, it is well known Paul attends a Presbyterian church and his wife is a deacon for that church.  Most of the people in the state would consider themselves evangelical or born-again so as long as Paul is sincere now, they're likely not to care.  That assumes Paul held those views.

It's very possible Conway could win, but running an ad like this suggests he is behind and needs a game changer.  Even Democrat strategists in the state have said the same thing on talk radio this week.  Releasing and internal poll saying he is in the lead was meant to counter the view he ran this ad because he was behind.  No one buys it around here.

There is no doubt the race has closed due to some tough issue oriented ads by Conway though.

[Whacker77]

Rumor is a Mason Dixon poll done for the Herald Leader will show Paul ahead 48-43.  It get's released at 6:00 PM.

[memphis]

Aqua Buddha worked? Even a little? Seriously? I fully support Conway b/c I think partisan control is more important than personalities, buts uber-retarded if that's what swings this state.