Chances of Dan Donovan and Harry Wilson in New York

[redcommander]

Winning despite Paladino, Townsend, and DioGuardi being at the top of the ticket. Can they still pull it off?

[Lunar]

Wilson has the best chances.  He's better funded, more moderate, and has the right support (New York Times, Albany reformers, etc).  I'm really not sure who is more likely to win in this race. 

I don't see Donovan's path to victory.  His campaign doesn't give me the impression that he's getting very much traction.

[Eraserhead]

Donovan has a shot. Wilson won't win.

[Lunar]

Donovan has a shot. Wilson won't win.

I don't think you can say that without elaboration, as it cuts against what insiders and reporters are saying

[xavier110]

I'll be voting for Wilson. He certainly has a shot, but DiNapoli is aided by that Italian name, LOL.

Schneiderman will win.

[cinyc]

Donovan has a shot. Wilson won't win.

I don't think you can say that without elaboration, as it cuts against what insiders and reporters are saying

There is an argument that Donovan has a better shot than Wilson.  In polls that have asked about all five statewide races, Wilson has the lowest name recognition of all Republicans.  If that continues, he will poll as a generic Republican does in New York - and surely lose.

The SUSA poll didn't poll the Comptroller's race, but showed Donovan within 4 of Schneiderman, despite abysmal numbers for Paladino.  The AGs race is always a bit higher profile than the comptroller's race, Donovan a slightly-better known candidate, and Schneiderman an ultra-left winger that's seemingly out of step with Cuomo.

On the other hand, Wilson has some money and could make a last-minute advertising blitz Downstate - and may be advertising on cable in the NYC suburbs, for all I know.  I think he's on Upstate.

[Eraserhead]

cinyc actually summed up my thinking on the race pretty well.

[Lunar]

I think Schneiderman has run the most distinctive campaign of the four, both connecting organizationally with major players [unions, women's groups, LGBT groups, minorities, gun control advocates, albany reformers] and running smooth, successful-looking operation.

Donovan has kind of fallen flat.  I'm on his email list, and frankly 85% of the emails have full sentence subject lines all in capital letters, attached images of his letterhead, and/or confusing press releases.

Donovan released one ad on Schneiderman's Shaprton annex remark, which I don't really think got much, if any, air time at all, if I recall correctly.  I don't see anti-Schneiderman messages resonating with the NY media at all, generating stories etc.  

Wilson represents the most credible Republican threat, in my opinion, because no matter how bad his name recognition is, he has the finances to change that.  That's not true for Donovan.

[cinyc]

I think Schneiderman has run the most distinctive campaign of the four, both connecting organizationally with major players [unions, women's groups, LGBT groups, minorities, gun control advocates, albany reformers] and running smooth, successful-looking operation.

Donovan has kind of fallen flat.  I'm on his email list, and frankly 85% of the emails have full sentence subject lines all in capital letters, attached images of his letterhead, and/or confusing press releases.

Donovan released one ad on Schneiderman's Shaprton annex remark, which I don't really think got much, if any, air time at all, if I recall correctly.  I don't see anti-Schneiderman messages resonating with the NY media at all, generating stories etc.  

Wilson represents the most credible Republican threat, in my opinion, because no matter how bad his name recognition is, he has the finances to change that.  That's not true for Donovan.

Most Republican candidates aren't going to bother to advertise in New York City.  NYC over-the-air TV is expensive, and they won't change many minds outside of Staten Island and the far, far reaches of the other Outer Boroughs, anyway.  If Donovan makes a media buy in the NYC market, it will be on cable systems in the suburbs, Staten Island and maybe parts of Brooklyn and Queens, depending on how localized the cable providers allow their ads to be.  I haven't seen any Donovan ads, nor will you.  Then again, I haven't seen any Schneiderman ads since the primary, either.  Or Wilson ads.  Or DiNapoli ads.  Or DioGuardi ads.  Or Townsend ads.  Paladino's up in NYC, but he has some money.

Wilson will need to seriously advertise in order to win - and still might not.  DiNapoli may be corrupt and inept, but the most important thing he is is a Democrat.  No generic Republican will beat him.

I get the sense that Cuomo doesn't have much use for Schneiderman and wouldn't be sad to see him lose.  Schneiderman is beholden to the Working Families Party and public employee unions and will just throw obstacles in Cuomo's way if elected.  (Assuming, of course, that Cuomo actually tries to do what he claims he is going to do when he gets to Albany, which I doubt.)

No New York Republican candidate expects much support from unions, women's groups, LGBT groups, minorities or gun control advocates - that's not the Republican base.  The only unions that sometimes support statewide Republicans in New York are the police and fire unions.  And Schneiderman is such an Albany insider that any support he receives from "Albany reformers" simply rings hollow.

[Eraserhead]

Of course Cuomo privately wants Schneiderman to lose. That's all the more reason to support him! We need some kind of check on Cuomo who, quite frankly, will govern in a fairly right-wing manner.

[cinyc]

Siena's poll confirms that Donovan's chances are greater than Wilson's.  Donovan is down by 7.  Wilson is down by 17.  Wilson (70%) is only one point worse known than Donovan (69%), though.  Townsend is one point worse known (71%).

[Lunar]

Donovan's gone dark: http://www.politico.com/blogs/maggiehaberman/1010/Dononvan_dark_this_week_.html?showall

We'll see who does better on election day.  I predict Wilson

[cinyc]

Well, I was wrong about never seeing a Wilson ad.  He's up on NYC over-the-air-TV with Schneiderman.  I've seen nothing from DiNapoli or Donovan yet - though I think DiNapoli is on cable in at least the suburbs.

[Eraserhead]

I've caught a lot of DiNapoli ads up here. I haven't seen anything from Wilson, Donovan or Schneiderman (post-primary).

[cinyc]

I've caught a lot of DiNapoli ads up here. I haven't seen anything from Wilson, Donovan or Schneiderman (post-primary).

I think both Wilson's and Schneiderman's ads were on during the NYC evening local news and 7-8 TV hour today.

On NYC over-the-air TV, Schumer, Gillibrand and Cuomo are on a lot, as are McMahon, Blumenthal, Foley and Malloy from Connecticut.   Paladino is on every now and again.  Wilson and Schneiderman a bit less so, but they've just started.  Even the Bergen County Dem Exec candidate has been on now and again.  But DiNapoli, Donovan, DioGuardi, and Townsend are not on at all, as far as I've seen.

[paul718]

This one hurt.